Match: Geelong Cats vs Hawthorn Hawks
When: Friday 19 September 2025, 7:40 PM AEST
Where: MCG

Recent Form & Momentum

  • Geelong head into the Preliminary Final rested and in strong form, having won seven games in a row.
  • Hawthorn, meanwhile, are riding momentum themselves. After their semi‑final upset over Adelaide (which knocked out the minor premiers), they’ve looked threatening, especially in key areas like clearances and forward line finishing.

Key Strengths & Matchups

Geelong

  • Their forward line is dangerous. They take lots of marks inside 50, which helps them control scoring opportunities deep in attack.
  • Their finals experience is also an edge. Geelong have been in this position many times; that sort of composure often tells in big games.
Embed from Getty Images

Hawthorn

  • Jai Newcombe stands out for clean clearances and midfield grunt — vital if the Hawks are to disrupt Geelong’s flow.
  • Jack Gunston has been lethal forward, with large goal hauls this finals series. His form will be critical.
  • Defensively, the Hawks have some strong personnel—James Sicily, Tom Barrass, Josh Battle—and they’ll need to hold up under Geelong’s aerial threat.

What Will Decide It

Here are the areas that seem likely to tip the game.

Battle Expectation / Edge
Midfield & Clearances If Hawthorn can dominate stoppages via Newcombe & others, they can slow Geelong’s entry into the forward line. But if Geelong run through centre clears and speed, they’ll force Hawthorn on the back foot.
Marks Inside 50 & Forward Efficiency Geelong’s strength in marking deep will matter. Hawthorn must match that in contest and ensure they make the most of any inside‑50s they win.
Early Momentum vs Composure Hawthorn will want a strong start and to unsettle Geelong early. Geelong, conversely, will try to absorb any early bursts and take control through steadiness.

What Geelong Must Do

  • Use their experience: handle pressure moments well, especially when the crowd and heat are on.
  • Feed their tall forwards: make aerial contests count against Hawthorn’s backline.
  • Neutralize Hawthorn’s match‑winners: stop Newcombe getting clean clearances, limit Gunston’s influence.

What Hawthorn Must Do

  • Win the contested ball: strength in clearances and stoppages to keep Geelong from settling.
  • Hit the scoreboard: don’t let missed shots or poor set‑ups allow Geelong to build momentum.
  • Stay disciplined: limiting turnovers, losing few one‑on‑one battles, and managing Geelong’s run and space.

Prediction & Outlook

Geelong enter this match as favourites given form, rest, and finals pedigree. But Hawthorn have proven they can upset expectations — their win over Adelaide is proof of that.

If they get off to a strong start, win the middle battle, and keep their defense tight, Hawks might make this a fight. But all things considered, many expect Geelong will have enough composure and firepower to pull through.

Likely margin: Geelong by ~20‑30 points — assuming they execute, especially in the second half.