Brisbane Lions and Carlton Blues are set to face off in a do-or-die elimination final at the Gabba. Both teams have had an intense 2024 season, and with their finals dreams on the line, this matchup promises to be one of the most thrilling encounters of the finals series.
Prediction: Brisbane by 1-39 points. Read on if you want to see our reasoning.
Team Form and Recent Performance
Brisbane finished the season strong with just two losses since their Round 12 bye. They went on an impressive run of nine straight wins during the season, including victories over fellow finalists such as Port Adelaide and the Bulldogs. However, late-season slip-ups against GWS and Collingwood cost them a top-four finish.
Carlton’s season has been more erratic. Despite some notable wins, including their one-point victory over Brisbane in the opening round, the Blues have struggled with injuries and consistency, losing key players like Charlie Curnow for tonight’s match. However, they come into this game having shown resilience and strength.
Key Players to Watch
For Brisbane, Joe Daniher and Charlie Cameron will be pivotal in the forward line. Daniher has been inconsistent with accuracy but has still managed to kick 50 goals this season. In the midfield, Josh Dunkley will likely face off against Carlton’s Patrick Cripps, a battle that could decide the game’s outcome.
Carlton will miss Charlie Curnow, but the return of Harry McKay and key inclusions like Sam Docherty provide some hope for the Blues.
4. Tactics and Strategy
Brisbane’s strength lies in their ability to dominate contested possessions and control the tempo of the game. Their goalkicking accuracy, however, has been an issue, ranked low in the league this season. Carlton, meanwhile, will need to make the most of their forward entries and rely on their strong inside-50 conversion rate to stay competitive.
5. Head-to-Head Stats and Historical Matchups
The Blues shocked Brisbane with a one-point victory at the Gabba in the opening round of this season, coming back from a 46-point deficit. However, in the last five meetings, Brisbane has won four, including a dominant performance in last year’s preliminary final.
6. Prediction and Betting Tips
Brisbane comes in as favorites due to their strong home form and Carlton’s inconsistency. The Lions are tipped to win by 1-39 points, with key players like Will Ashcroft and Cam Rayner expected to have significant roles. Brisbane’s advantage at the Gabba, coupled with their superior form, should see them advance to the next round.
Both teams have much at stake, but the Lions’ depth and consistent performance through the season likely give them the edge. Carlton will need to be at their absolute best to pull off another upset.
