No Oppo Supporters OPPOSITION OBSERVATION XL

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First picked.
why, we have players that apply pressure and kick goals and dont rock up to preseason with a spare tire. mrj just applies pressure and barely gets a touch. we also have kids like alger and armstrong that will need to find spots in the forward line.
 
why, we have players that apply pressure and kick goals and dont rock up to preseason with a spare tire. mrj just applies pressure and barely gets a touch. we also have kids like alger and armstrong that will need to find spots in the forward line.

Career highs in a lot of key stats last year. Of specialists forwards in 2024, he was #7 for pressure acts per game, from 70% TOG. Per minute played he is pretty close to the top. A few above him are inflating their pressure acts with time on ball too. He applied comfortably the most pressure acts of Richmond's specialist forwards.

I think you are under-rating him. Love to see him play a 20+ game season fully fit. I expect Maurice to improve further this season, to a player rating in the 8.5-9.5 range, which is very decent for a specialist small forward, around top 20 in the comp. Mansell was #22 last year rating 8.92. 125 or so players defined as general forwards played in the AFL 2024. Maurice was around the 50th highest rated in by far the weakest forward line/midfield combination, so he wasn't bad at all considering.
 
Career highs in a lot of key stats last year. Of specialists forwards in 2024, he was #7 for pressure acts per game, from 70% TOG. Per minute played he is pretty close to the top. A few above him are inflating their pressure acts with time on ball too. He applied comfortably the most pressure acts of Richmond's specialist forwards.

I think you are under-rating him. Love to see him play a 20+ game season fully fit. I expect Maurice to improve further this season, to a player rating in the 8.5-9.5 range, which is very decent for a specialist small forward, around top 20 in the comp. Mansell was #22 last year rating 8.92. 125 or so players defined as general forwards played in the AFL 2024. Maurice was around the 50th highest rated in by far the weakest forward line/midfield combination, so he wasn't bad at all considering.
I just dont see a spot for a purely defensive player in our forward line. what other team has one? I can't think of a single one. the best teams have dangerous small forwards who also apply pressure. outside of a dimma-esque gameplan it's hard to justify a spot for him imo.
 
I just dont see a spot for a purely defensive player in our forward line. what other team has one? I can't think of a single one. the best teams have dangerous small forwards who also apply pressure. outside of a dimma-esque gameplan it's hard to justify a spot for him imo.

Some(most, if not all) teams had more productive general forwards than Rioli Jnr last year.

That is very different to the question of whether he should get a game.

Maurice's best goals + assists average was 2022 at 1.6 per game. There would be no reason he wouldn't have bettered that last year bar for our forward line and midfield being in total disarray. His score involvement % 2024 was 21%, way higher than in any other season. In other words he was involved in 21% of Richmond's scores in the games he played. If you watch the games there are not a high number of scores he is involved with where he gets an easy receive(compared to the whole population of general forwards.)

So let's run down the high pressure act general forwards from top to see what % of their team's scores they were involved in:

1 Switkowski 23.3%
2 Miers 25.6%
3 Daniels 26.7%
4 Pickett 25.7%
5 Chandler 17.3%
6 McReery 13.4%
7 Rioli Jr 21%
8 Rankine 26.5%
9 Mannagh 22.9%
10 Byrne-Jones 18.5%
11 J Cripps 27.4%
12 Close 22.4%
13 Tholstrup 16.2%
14 Holman 17.6%
15 Schultz 20%
16 Darcy Jones 18%
17 Butler 13.7%
18 Dyl Moore 29.7%
19 L Henry 25.7%
20 Garcia 16%


So of the top 20 general forwards for pressure acts, 9 of them were involved in a lower % of their team's scores than Maurice Rioli.

I am pretty sure if the team and forward line is fairly stable and functions ok in 2025 and Maurice has a good run fitness wise he will be straight up to around the top 20 general forwards ala Mansell in 2024.

Also, Maurice was 21yo during the season last year. Every general forward that was higher for average pressure acts was comfortably older than him. In fact he was in the youngest 3 or 4 of the top 20 for pressure acts. And the younger ones were well below him for score involvement %.

General forwards as young or younger in 2024 with higher player ratings:

E Hollands 22yo
Darcy Jones 20yo
J Rachele 21yo
C McDonald 21yo
K Lohman 21yo
N Watson 19yo
M Owens 21yo

Bar Owens who was taken at pick 33 as an academy player, the rest are rd 1 or fringe rd 1 draft picks, half of them top 10 picks. If we have 3 or 4 general forwards good enough in 2025 to keep Maurice out of our team I will be very surprised.

Remember too his defensive acts are absolute top quality. In 2022 he recorded comfortably the highest scores from pressure acts in the AFL.
 
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If I was a North supporter, I’d still be pissed about JHF leaving. He’s literally what they need right now.

When they traded out JHF they gave up:

pick 1 2022(Cadman)
+
pick 46 2023(Bodie Ryan - Hawks)
+
Horne-Francis

They gained:


pick 3 2022(Harold Sheezel)
pick 4 2022(George Wardlaw)
Picks 40, 43 2022 which were traded out for:

pick 63 2022 which I think was used on Cooper Harvey(f/s)

2023 4th rd pick(Hawks) Traded for Bigoa Nyuon

2023 3rd rd pick(Melbourne) which North traded for Bombers 2024 4th rd pick(Bombers) which appears to have been traded for Jack Darling

2023 1st rd pick(Port Adelaide) Taylor Goad at pick 20




So of any real consequence, they traded:

Horne-Francis, Cadman(1) & Bodie Ryan(46)

for

Sheezel(3), Wardlaw(4) & Goad(20) who is a 207cm 19yo ruckman yet to debut.

Sheezel is 20yo and looks every bit as good as JHF with probably similar capabilities.

Wardlaw is 20yo and is having bad injury worries but looks a great player in the making.

Goad will probably be hit or miss.

It is not at all certain to say North would have been better off with Horne-Francis.
 
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Some(most, if not all) teams had more productive general forwards than Rioli Jnr last year.

That is very different to the question of whether he should get a game.

Maurice's best goals + assists average was 2022 at 1.6 per game. There would be no reason he wouldn't have bettered that last year bar for our forward line and midfield being in total disarray. His score involvement % 2024 was 21%, way higher than in any other season. In other words he was involved in 21% of Richmond's scores in the games he played. If you watch the games there are not a high number of scores he is involved with where he gets an easy receive(compared to the whole population of general forwards.)

So let's run down the high pressure act general forwards from top to see what % of their team's scores they were involved in:

1 Switkowski 23.3%
2 Miers 25.6%
3 Daniels 26.7%
4 Pickett 25.7%
5 Chandler 17.3%
6 McReery 13.4%
7 Rioli Jr 21%
8 Rankine 26.5%
9 Mannagh 22.9%
10 Byrne-Jones 18.5%
11 J Cripps 27.4%
12 Close 22.4%
13 Tholstrup 16.2%
14 Holman 17.6%
15 Schultz 20%
16 Darcy Jones 18%
17 Butler 13.7%
18 Dyl Moore 29.7%
19 L Henry 25.7%
20 Garcia 16%


So of the top 20 general forwards for pressure acts, 9 of them were involved in a lower % of their team's scores than Maurice Rioli.

I am pretty sure if the team and forward line is fairly stable and functions ok in 2025 and Maurice has a good run fitness wise he will be straight up to around the top 20 general forwards ala Mansell in 2024.

Also, Maurice was 21yo during the season last year. Every general forward that was higher for average pressure acts was comfortably older than him. In fact he was in the youngest 3 or 4 of the top 20 for pressure acts. And the younger ones were well below him for score involvement %.

General forwards as young or younger in 2024 with higher player ratings:

E Hollands 22yo
Darcy Jones 20yo
J Rachele 21yo
C McDonald 21yo
K Lohman 21yo
N Watson 19yo
M Owens 21yo

Bar Owens who was taken at pick 33 as an academy player, the rest are rd 1 or fringe rd 1 draft picks, half of them top 10 picks. If we have 3 or 4 general forwards good enough in 2025 to keep Maurice out of our team I will be very surprised.

Remember too his defensive acts are absolute top quality. In 2022 he recorded comfortably the highest scores from pressure acts in the AFL.
You make a very compelling argument for him being a reasonable small forward appreciate the effort. The question remains though, does he have a spot in a forward line that you can guarantee will contain both Mansell and Seth Campbell as well as rotating mids? are we going super small again? Hard to draw that conclusion when we draft 3 kpfs. Having a defensive forward on the bench doesn’t make much sense either. He fits the bill for sub.
 
You make a very compelling argument for him being a reasonable small forward appreciate the effort. The question remains though, does he have a spot in a forward line that you can guarantee will contain both Mansell and Seth Campbell as well as rotating mids? are we going super small again? Hard to draw that conclusion when we draft 3 kpfs. Having a defensive forward on the bench doesn’t make much sense either. He fits the bill for sub.

I think you basically have a 7 player forward line with 1 of those on the bench at most times. This would be made up of 3 talls, say Lynch, Bauer, +2nd ruck. And 4 general forwards. I think our first choice 4 early season will be something like Lalor, Mansell, Rioli, Campbell. Mansell & Campbell seem to be training to spend some time on wings or as inside mids, which will open up opportunities for players like Green, Alger. Also the sub position is likely to be used to accommodate these type of players, which opens up further opportunities, as will the inevitable injuries, suspensions etc.

Sonsie now seems to be trialling across half back, and Clarke will be back around 6 matches into the season to present another option, and later on in the season Hotton will create another option. Rioli's industy elite pressure is crucial to that forward mix imo.


With MR Jr in 2024 we scored 78 goals from 9 games @ 8.66 goals per game.
Without MR Jr 2024 we scored 133 goals from 14 games @ 9.5 goals per game.


So our scoring was on average 0.8 goals per game less when he played.

With MR Jr in 2024 we conceded 123 goals from 9 games @ 13.7 goals per game.
Without MR Jr in 2024 we conceded 226 goals from 14 games @ 16.1 goals per game.



So it is possible you are noticing that we don't score as many goals when he is playing(0.8 goals per games less) but not noticing we are conceding 2.4 goals extra per game when he & his elite pressure is absent. Overall we were 1.6 goals better off per game on average when he played.

He played against teams who finished the h & a season in the following positions: 1 6 8 10 12 13 13 14 16 = 9.3 average ladder position, slightly stronger than AFL average(9.5). So it is not like he had the luck of the draw with opponents.

Of course there are lots of other variables at play, but all of these figures make some sort of sense to me when you watch the bloke in action. 1.6 goals per game is a big difference for an individual player to make if that is reflective. The club will see him as a very valuable player, and he will be best 22 for sure barring fitness issues.
 
I saw MRJ go OK in the middle in the VFL, I reckon he might get Bolton's mid/fwd position. PRE saying He hasn't had a great pre-season, has missed a lot of conditioning but he difference was pretty stark tonight.

Body was a bit bit like 2023.
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poor boy like a beer
 
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Norf fans finally have someone else to punch down at, so glad we have their pick, hope they’re a monumental disappointment this year.

I also have a couple of questions,
Why would we draft for fit alongside older players like Hopper and Taranto?
And why do they let you walk your dog on Arden Street oval? Even when their team is training? What kind of amateur organisation are they?
Gotta laugh. FOS didn't touch it yesterday against the VFL side until the 2 good players went off and he had a passable last quarter. 🤣🤣
 
Did you watch? They got flogged. The All Stars were scintillating.
hard to believe a team thats been together for a while and seemingly pushing for finals, trains all pre-season to execute a gameplan and gets flogged by a group of guys who spent 3 days on a camp, as talented as they are.
either there was an element of going through the motions for freo or theyre completely ****ed.
 
hard to believe a team thats been together for a while and seemingly pushing for finals, trains all pre-season to execute a gameplan and gets flogged by a group of guys who spent 3 days on a camp, as talented as they are. either there was an element of going through the motions for freo or theyre completely ****ed.
Why should they care at all, lets be honest. If they're pushing for finals (over 200 days away), are you asking for them to play incredible football on the 15th of Feb

Turn it up m8
 
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