Analysis 2022 Team ratings

[grumbleguts]

It's that time again. Last couple of seasons has been too depressing but it hasn't been often I can post a ratings table like this: Hawthorn on the top Essendon on the bottom and Richmond ninth.

1​	Hawthorn	100.000​
2​	Collingwood	68.680​
3​	Melbourne	48.587​
4​	Sydney	48.047​
5​	Carlton	40.083​
6​	Geelong	15.457​
7​	St Kilda	11.547​
8​	Gold Coast	10.693​
9​	Richmond	9.963​
10​	North Melbourne	6.513​
11​	Brisbane	-1.548​
12​	Western Bulldogs	-17.208​
13​	Fremantle	-26.881​
14​	GWS	-44.197​
15​	Adelaide	-47.181​
16​	West Coast	-47.932​
17​	Port Adelaide	-67.266​
18​	Essendon	-79.447​

 

[Hawkers Hero]

I am of course loving any table that has Hawthorn with a 1 next to them and Essendon as far away as possible but on what basis is this work of art created?

 

[Brant]

It's that time again. Last couple of seasons has been too depressing but it hasn't been often I can post a ratings table like this: Hawthorn on the top Essendon on the bottom and Richmond ninth.

1​	Hawthorn	100.000​
2​	Collingwood	68.680​
3​	Melbourne	48.587​
4​	Sydney	48.047​
5​	Carlton	40.083​
6​	Geelong	15.457​
7​	St Kilda	11.547​
8​	Gold Coast	10.693​
9​	Richmond	9.963​
10​	North Melbourne	6.513​
11​	Brisbane	-1.548​
12​	Western Bulldogs	-17.208​
13​	Fremantle	-26.881​
14​	GWS	-44.197​
15​	Adelaide	-47.181​
16​	West Coast	-47.932​
17​	Port Adelaide	-67.266​
18​	Essendon	-79.447​

The way life is supposed to be

 

[grumbleguts]

I am of course loving any table that has Hawthorn with a 1 next to them and Essendon as far away as possible but on what basis is this work of art created?

I rate the top team 100, and the others are rated relative to that. The mathematics of the ratings system is explained in part in this thread:
Analysis - Team ratings

In that thread I posted the ratings in round 9, 2016. They were:


Round 9
Sydney Swans 135.8761
GWS Giants 129.5763
Geelong Cats 127.5612
Adelaide Crows 126.2597
West Coast Eagles 123.8679
Western Bulldogs 116.0758
Hawthorn 112.8825
North Melbourne 106.9513
Melbourne 88.85062
Port Adelaide 84.88779
Gold Coast Suns 73.90761
Collingwood 72.69306
Richmond 72.16456
Brisbane Lions 71.02502
Essendon 65.24481
St Kilda 64.22038
Fremantle 60.74817
Carlton 59.50057

The actual ladder at that time was:

NM 9 36 130.9
GE 9 28 152.0
GW 9 28 148.0
SY 9 28 144.2
WB 9 24 133.9
WC 9 24 129.6
HW 9 24 102.7
AD 9 20 118.4
ME 9 20 113.6
PA 9 16 100.5
CW 9 16 94.4
CA 9 16 76.7
SK 9 12 84.9
RI 9 12 81.6
GC 9 12 74.5
BL 9 4 62.1
ES 9 4 59.7
FR 9 0 68.4

You can see that the actual ladder was very different North Melbourne were undefeated, yet my ratings system had them just making the eight in eighth
position. Yet by the end of the season the ladder looked far more like my ratings. Hawthorn that year were an outlier, because their win loss ratio was far better than their actual performance as they had won several games by very small margins, thus having the final ladder inflate their actual ratings. (which the finals series bore out.

The final ladder that season:

SY 22 68 151.2
GE 22 68 143.8
HW 22 68 118.6
GW 22 64 143.1
AD 22 64 138.3
WC 22 64 130.0
WB 22 60 115.4
NM 22 48 105.2
SK 22 48 95.7
PA 22 40 106.0
ME 22 40 97.6
CW 22 36 95.6
RI 22 32 79.5
CA 22 28 79.3
GC 22 24 78.2
FR 22 16 74.3
BL 22 12 61.6
ES 22 12 61.0

The algorithm recognised the teams NM had beaten were actually low in ability and that they weren't that good.

 

[Brant]

It's that time again. Last couple of seasons has been too depressing but it hasn't been often I can post a ratings table like this: Hawthorn on the top Essendon on the bottom and Richmond ninth.

1​	Hawthorn	100.000​
2​	Collingwood	68.680​
3​	Melbourne	48.587​
4​	Sydney	48.047​
5​	Carlton	40.083​
6​	Geelong	15.457​
7​	St Kilda	11.547​
8​	Gold Coast	10.693​
9​	Richmond	9.963​
10​	North Melbourne	6.513​
11​	Brisbane	-1.548​
12​	Western Bulldogs	-17.208​
13​	Fremantle	-26.881​
14​	GWS	-44.197​
15​	Adelaide	-47.181​
16​	West Coast	-47.932​
17​	Port Adelaide	-67.266​
18​	Essendon	-79.447​

Reading this table simply confirms that we'll go the entire season without a loss.

 

[grumbleguts]

Reading this table simply confirms that we'll go the entire season without a loss.

It'd be nice if true, but it really only comes into its own after about 7 rounds.

 

[Brant]

It'd be nice if true, but it really only comes into its own after about 7 rounds.

Ah, nuts...

 

[chopflop]

I'm putting my faith in you grumble to win me my footy tipping comp this year

 

[grumbleguts]

I'm putting my faith in you grumble to win me my footy tipping comp this year

Wait until at least round 7 or so. There needs to be sufficient teams playing teams who have played teams who have played teams etc...

Round 3
Brisbane	100​
Hawthorn	71.85304​
Collingwood	61.60117​
Melbourne	54.70051​
Carlton	54.01481​
St Kilda	51.88968​
Geelong	43.5813​
Sydney	42.31922​
Fremantle	37.80014​
Western Bulldogs	21.06822​
Richmond	15.65011​
GWS	0.965975​
Adelaide	-9.48797​
Gold Coast	-16.1401​
Port Adelaide	-23.4852​
Essendon	-25.0485​
North Melbourne	-67.5094​
West Coast	-85.1156​

 

[grumbleguts]

Massive swings in these early rounds:
Round 4

St Kilda	100​
Brisbane	89.42819​
Melbourne	80.58555​
Fremantle	74.90128​
Geelong	49.96298​
Collingwood	36.50911​
Richmond	27.44286​
Sydney	19.34871​
Hawthorn	16.45225​
Gold Coast	6.4266​
Carlton	3.746084​
GWS	-30.6953​
Western Bulldogs	-33.5416​
Adelaide	-45.865​
Essendon	-50.0405​
West Coast	-82.5069​
Port Adelaide	-97.7833​
North Melbourne	-109.028​

Saints got some massive points for today.

 

[grumbleguts]

Round 5

Melbourne	100.000​
St Kilda	88.976​
Fremantle	73.448​
Brisbane	66.800​
Sydney	37.907​
Geelong	30.275​
Collingwood	28.845​
Hawthorn	21.966​
Richmond	7.729​
Western Bulldogs	2.393​
Carlton	-2.220​
Gold Coast	-6.621​
Adelaide	-20.512​
GWS	-52.941​
Essendon	-55.590​
Port Adelaide	-66.289​
West Coast	-98.498​
North Melbourne	-114.386​

 

[cryptor]

Round 5

Melbourne	100.000​
St Kilda	88.976​
Fremantle	73.448​
Brisbane	66.800​
Sydney	37.907​
Geelong	30.275​
Collingwood	28.845​
Hawthorn	21.966​
Richmond	7.729​
Western Bulldogs	2.393​
Carlton	-2.220​
Gold Coast	-6.621​
Adelaide	-20.512​
GWS	-52.941​
Essendon	-55.590​
Port Adelaide	-66.289​
West Coast	-98.498​
North Melbourne	-114.386​

Pretty similar to the actual ladder now. Carlton imposters in the top 8 is what stands out.

 

[chopflop]

Oki. I am ready for you to save my tipping this year now grumble

 

[grumbleguts]

After Round 6:

Melbourne	100​
Brisbane	79.00608​
St Kilda	73.70593​
Fremantle	73.26378​
Sydney	51.7466​
Geelong	47.38729​
Collingwood	25.01116​
Hawthorn	18.26417​
Richmond	7.496567​
Western Bulldogs	6.258808​
Port Adelaide	2.154951​
Adelaide	-1.39787​
Carlton	-1.94084​
Gold Coast	-15.0691​
Essendon	-31.4876​
GWS	-34.4779​
North Melbourne	-100.017​
West Coast	-130.908​

 

[grumbleguts]

After round 7:

West coast SUCK!

Melbourne	100​
Brisbane	77.3154​
Fremantle	67.17238​
St Kilda	67.02534​
Sydney	41.18561​
Geelong	39.64697​
Richmond	30.48058​
Collingwood	16.60146​
Hawthorn	13.46443​
Western Bulldogs	7.166001​
Carlton	5.399976​
Port Adelaide	-1.73284​
GWS	-14.0463​
Gold Coast	-25.9175​
Adelaide	-36.0533​
Essendon	-52.457​
North Melbourne	-123.814​
West Coast	-174.67​

 

[cryptor]

Really important we beat Richmond and Collingwood in the coming weeks if we want to play finals this year.

 

[extractasam]

Really important we beat Richmond and Collingwood in the coming weeks if we want to play finals this year.

8 point wins

 

[grumbleguts]

After round 8

Melbourne	100.000​
Fremantle	93.250​
Brisbane	91.643​
Geelong	62.376​
St Kilda	50.883​
Richmond	32.885​
Sydney	27.132​
Carlton	21.035​
Collingwood	15.282​
Port Adelaide	8.843​
Hawthorn	5.035​
Western Bulldogs	4.412​
Gold Coast	-8.205​
Essendon	-22.512​
GWS	-26.092​
Adelaide	-34.469​
North Melbourne	-129.040​
West Coast	-158.493​

 

[grumbleguts]

After Round 9

Melbourne	100.000​
Brisbane	80.425​
Fremantle	51.806​
St Kilda	43.225​
Geelong	42.009​
Sydney	33.230​
Richmond	26.776​
Carlton	17.174​
Port Adelaide	14.753​
Western Bulldogs	14.056​
Gold Coast	11.232​
Hawthorn	-5.668​
Collingwood	-9.763​
GWS	-36.353​
Adelaide	-44.752​
Essendon	-48.058​
North Melbourne	-149.402​
West Coast	-168.686​

 

[grumbleguts]

Round 10

Melbourne	100​
Brisbane	78.502​
Geelong	56.125​
St Kilda	47.096​
Fremantle	39.616​
Richmond	38.621​
Sydney	33.446​
Carlton	24.816​
Western Bulldogs	23.263​
Collingwood	13.804​
Gold Coast	11.608​
Port Adelaide	9.6​
Hawthorn	3.201​
GWS	-28.466​
Adelaide	-38.396​
Essendon	-47.49​
North Melbourne	-139.283​
West Coast	-160.759​

 

[grumbleguts]

I must apologise for not continuing this. I had a catastrophic failure of my computer with all the data on it. So must spend several hours redoing the calculations and reentering the data.

 

[cryptor]

I must apologise for not continuing this. I had a catastrophic failure of my computer with all the data on it. So must spend several hours redoing the calculations and reentering the data.

I assumed you were doing the calculations in your head

 

[OnTheRocks]