Analysis Season 2024 - Statistics and Analytics Thread

[KissKiss]

Cam was 12.4 from set shots prior to the GWS game and shanked 2 easy ones in the following 2 weeks

Maybe Im too flavoured by his career averages. Looking over the last 4 or 5 years there are too many set shot misses from that 15-45m range within the middle of the ground.

Also interesting to see how much more comfortable he is shooting from the left side of the ground.

Looking at Charlies plot is also interesting. He also seems to be massively biased to the left side this year. But his set shots from there are "interesting". 14 set shots for 6.2. He's basically 50:50 to kick a goal or miss the lot

 

[Grasshopper17]

Also interesting to see how much more comfortable he is shooting from the left side of the ground.

Looking at Charlies plot is also interesting. He also seems to be massively biased to the left side this year.

Hold it right there!

You don't mean to say... Heaven forbid... Players are more accurate in matches when kicking for goal from the areas of the field they've spent time practicing from!?

I don't believe it. Colour me shocked!

 

[Grasshopper17]

Well, looks like the Grand Final is actually this Friday night. Everyone else is playing for 2nd.

(There was a delay in Andrew putting this out into the Twitterverse this week because for some reason the score source data for 3 matches from Round 23 was missing originally. This forms a key part of the analysis - scoring from kick ins, turnovers and stoppages)

 

[Hanley]

Interesting that Lions ended up first on points from turnover differential - Daniel Hoyne from Champion Data seems to rate that over any other single metric partly because it holds up in the fierce pace and contested nature of finals. There will be a heap of turnovers, and basically you need to capitalise on those better than the other team. That stat also already factors in our inaccuracy of course and we're still first. Based on these stats can't wait to see Dunkley walk to Bont for the first bounce of the GF...

 

[McIvor]

According Tim Watson; looks like we’re done

 

[M Malice]

According Tim Watson; looks like we’re done

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It does not look like pretty reading when you highlight it like that, I wonder if there would be similar instances with other top 8 sides.

Most pundits writing us off on Saturday night, it would be so sweet to prove them wrong.

 

[Nathan Barley]

I still don't understand why it's worst to have had a lead and then lose then it is to not have a lead and then lose

We've won 15 games this year, the Giants have won 15 games this year

There's your formline

 

[Elixuh]

If Tim Watson could name more than 5 lions players I’d be surprised. Reading a teleprompter written by a producer is money for old jam for old Timothy.

 

[MSB ROYS]

Am I doing this right?

Lions winning streak is 2, GWS is 0. GWS is no chance .

 

[Section 5]

I still don't understand why it's worst to have had a lead and then lose then it is to not have a lead and then lose

We've won 15 games this year, the Giants have won 15 games this year

There's your formline

I always prefer a team that puts in a good effort early. That may get you into a good position to win the game.
It means the effort is there from the start and if they struggle later, that's not ideal but understandable.

The above-mentioned table just shows what we all know has happened this year.
However, we won 3 of the 7 games mentioned by 28, 20 & 20.

We are not a great final quarter team but in the Swans game we kicked 4.6 to 1.1 in the last quarter to get a 2-point win.

 

[Tom14]

I always prefer a team that puts in a good effort early. That may get you into a good position to win the game.
It means the effort is there from the start and if they struggle later, that's not ideal but understandable.

The above-mentioned table just shows what we all know has happened this year.
However, we won 3 of the 7 games mentioned by 28, 20 & 20.

We are not a great final quarter team but in the Swans game we kicked 4.6 to 1.1 in the last quarter to get a 2-point win.

Came back in the dees game too. Pretty sure those are the last 2 games we trailed in at 3QT?

 

[McIvor]

 

[Section 5]

As long as we are up 10% at 3/4 time no worries

 

[BrainOfMorbius]

Didn't the Fox Footy premiership window model have the Hawks and Bulldogs as the only teams to finish the season in the premiership zone? RIP that model

 

[Tom14]

Didn't the Fox Footy premiership window model have the Hawks and Bulldogs as the only teams to finish the season in the premiership zone? RIP that model

Us too.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Us too.

Yes, we were in that window, but not the Champion Data premiership metrics window.

 

[Elixuh]

Not necessarily what he is saying about the game or his prediction. But pretty sure when we weren't going great earlier in the season we were one of the worst teams in the league for ground ball. We are now elite.

 

[Section 5]

Not necessarily what he is saying about the game or his prediction. But pretty sure when we weren't going great earlier in the season we were one of the worst teams in the league for ground ball. We are now elite.

Pretty clear he thinks Lions have the recent stats to win the GF, though only by 8 points in his final words.
But the last sentence is Lions travelling 3 weeks in a row concerns him

 

[M Malice]

Pretty clear he thinks Lions have the recent stats to win the GF, though only by 8 points in his final words.
But the last sentence is Lions travelling 3 weeks in a row concerns him

I too am worried about the travel factor and the shorter break, hopefully the adrenalin of it being a GF will carry us through.

 

[Gadzorks]

Pretty clear he thinks Lions have the recent stats to win the GF, though only by 8 points in his final words.
But the last sentence is Lions travelling 3 weeks in a row concerns him

Travel time can cut both ways - tired and would rather be at home or opportunity for team bonding..

Guarantee it is been the later during this finals run. And tightly bonded teams are players playing for each other which is an essential ingredient in winning.

We got this

 

[Tom14]

After a smashing grand final win we've ended up around Geelong 2009 and Hawthorn 2015 in Squiggle's team ratings. Very very worthy premiers.

 

[Nathan Barley]

Stats, stats, stats

 

[Tom14]

 

[Tom14]

Where the AFL grand final was won for the Lions, and lost for the Swans

Brisbane are kings of the AFL jungle again, while the Swans mourn another grand final belting. These are the key stats that decided the 2024 premiership.

www.abc.net.au

The Lions also leaned on their strengths in controlling the flow of the game. Brisbane leant on a heavy kick-mark style and trapped the ball in their front half. The Lions finished with a 158 to 88 advantage for marks, including a 22-to-nine advantage inside 50.

The corridor, key to so much Sydney success across the last three years, was effectively closed for business by the Lions.

Brisbane had five more disposals (68-63) than the Swans in the centre square across the entire game, with the Swans only managing 13 disposals in the square when transitioning the ball from defence.

But it was the Lions' deadly intercept game that truly put the game beyond doubt.

In the second quarter, when the game was to be won, the Lions scored 20 points from seven front-half intercepts. For some teams that would be a good return for an entire game, let alone just one quarter.

Scoring from intercepts across the ground was where Brisbane did the most damage for the entire game.

The Lions scored 41 points to 13 in the first two quarters from intercepts and finished with a 72-27 advantage overall.

The Lions also managed to hold their composure through the game defensively.

Despite having a huge possession advantage, Brisbane also managed to register more tackles across the game. That's a sign of how disciplined the Lions were at the contest.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Yes some numbers from Andrew Whelan



More here: https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20242801