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Stephens: Statistical analysis, the minimum number of votes to give, for Lach to win the medal - but the maximum number we can give, before the Germans get suspicious

Where TJM?

Had an ankle sprain in Rd1. Not sure if that impacted anything.

Touk, and that guy from Carlton.

I have a small play on Daniher v Port @ $31. He would be taking on a big game from Houston (36 touches, 2g, didn't win) but his 4.3 pulled Brisbane close to level in the 4th. He kicked some quality goals and really should have had 5 if not for some costly selflessness. In round 1, weird stuff...

I feel like they've usually been a last week type of market. That's because I've fired all my shots before it comes on. And I've done it again.

Macrae ended up being unbackable for T20 by the time the count started last year...

Parker won't make it for mine.

Yep, I got Serong ahead of Brodie. Thought I was the only one.

Like Brett Lee running through the Windies tail...

Here are some phrases to help you get through: "How TF he get 3 there?" "This is cooked!" "Umpires aren't paid enough to not be corrupt!" "40 touches and no votes? GF!" "How'd he win? Shoulda been suspended!"

Between 2017 and 2021, the 3v went to a player on the losing team about 9% of the time. Fun fact: Fyfe got 3 in a 110-33 point loss to Richmond in 2018.

Completing the loop on this count. Laird 3rd - choked in the final round. https://www.sportingnews.com/au/afl/news/brownlow-medal-round-23-predictor-carlton-star-tipped-win-while-melbourne-gun-hot-his-tail/xvzzgai079u3hzjrzhqzvmdb

It happens.

So for you Neale is already a winner but does he do it solo or tied with Bray? Interesting.

As a pessimistic Lions supporter, I just feel the Dees have the Lions measure. Dees routinely keep Lions scoring low and move too fast around the ball. Dees to win - they've won the last 3 matchups and generally quite comfortably. Votes to Dees - Trac, Gawn, Clarry, Viney, Bray, May?

Some more about Laird: https://www.sportingnews.com/au/afl/news/brownlow-medal-round-22-predictor-adelaide-gun-hangs-lead-carlton-star-closes/xgwtstqtyxnyfe3yczyv5mvn Leading. :oops:

Here you go mate:

Back your count. I can't find value in him. As a guide, Coaches have him listed as 18th. When I look at the 17 players above him, I can't really make a case to elevate him much further up. James Sicily is there - it'd be unlikely he is T20 in Brownlow. Again, another guide using Coaches...

Got so many damn counts. In the one above, he's on 10. But I have one that is min 8, avg 13.5, max 19. I feel 13.5 is more realistic.

Miller is a jet. Stay true Billionaire Panda - you ain't a billionaire for nothing.

Here we go people. One round. 28 - Miller, Neale 27 - Oliver 24 - Petracca 21 - Brayshaw, The CrippleMaker 20 - Rozee 19 - Cameron 17 - Warner, Bolton.

Parish comes in, messes up the chemistry, pigs out, gets the votes and goes top Essendon and T20. Let's go

Can only think he wants to play for match fees.

Some umps will be absolute footy tragics and others won't be. Some will be able to separate the outside noise from the game in front, others won't. And then there is O'Gorman.

Got Gresh nowhere near it. Steele 12, Crouch 10, Higgins and Sinclair 8. Tough team to get right. Back yourself in. A fit St Kilda side gave Brisbane issues last year.

Rd 23 shaping as a cracker. Bris v Melb. Tracc has a history of turning up for big games. This game could decide the winner.

R5 - 1 vote R10 - 1 vote R19 - 1 vote

Oliver 24 Bray, Neale 21 Miller, Petracca 20. All those blokes under Oliver are a genuine chance to close the gap to 0 or 1 this round for mine.

So many ways to tackle this problem. PhDs have been earnt for less. I figure whatever method you use needs to account for the different player types - Key forward, forward, inside mid, outside mid, defender, key defender and rucks. Set yourself an accuracy goal (60% of 3-votes right on...