2014 AFL Pre Season betting

[TheKanga]

Small multi

Collingwood (-7.5)
Brisbane first to 15 pts

@ 3.05

 

[banana_bus]

Lol good luck guys.

 

[TheKanga]

pretty comfortable that ben reid is value at $41 FGS

i mean he's 50/50 to play forward or back but even so worth a nibble

Where did you get $41 for that?

Only paying $12 on sportsbet

 

[balmainforever]

The only reason someone would bet on this game is if they have a compulsive gambling problem.

Its a 50-50 game on a ground neither team have ever played at.

Neither team has anything to play for.

Both teams will be playing bruise free footy.

Its essentially an exhibition match.

Richmond played in Wangaratta last year. Beat Essendon.
Is there another ground in Wangaratta big enough to hold such a game??

 

[Lensen]

Where did you get $41 for that?

Only paying $12 on sportsbet

Centrebet

 

[banana_bus]

Richmond played in Wangaratta last year. Beat Essendon.
Is there another ground in Wangaratta big enough to hold such a game??

No idea. Completely forgot about that game.

 

[Willzzz]

NAB Challenge - Richmond Tigers vs Collingwood Magpies:

1.5U - Collingwood Magpies Under 98.5 @ $1.90 (Bet365)

• Disagree with comments that this will be an easy run around for the players. Think Richmond had that game last week against the Demons and Hardwick will want to see some intensity in this one.
• Magpies played well in the first game but I think talk during the week was they still wanted to work on their defensive skills.
• Beams, who was massive in the first game is out, albeit replaced by Swan, but Swan normally starts off slowly.
• Richmond have played at Wangarrata below against the Bombers and they won in a low scoring game against the Bombers missing a number of their top players.
• Collingwood may have 1 too many talls for the Tigers to combat but I expect the Tigers midfield to dominate this game and for them to get the ball inside their forward 50 for long enough.
• Don't like the line as much (slight lean towards the Tigers +7.5) & lean towards the Unders for Total Match Points has made me make this play.

 

[happy punter]

Tigers +7.5 over Magpies @ 1.91 (3 units)

 

[Willzzz]

The only reason someone would bet on this game is if they have a compulsive gambling problem.

Disagree with that Banana Bus. I actually think it is easy betting on markets when you know both teams are exactly going 100% full-tilt, unlike in H2H bets, unless there is match-fixing.
That is why I do like taking teams + points, especially ones around 20 - 30 points. Also, I know it's not AFL but the 6 Over Highest Score in Limited-Overs cricket is a good example. Teams use different philosophy on how to tackle the opening few overs and it is often a lot easier to find value there.
Sure, NAB Cup teams may turn up/some may not, but bookies have the line & H2H odds a LOT sharper in Home and Away matches.

 

[Thedeftouch]

pretty comfortable that ben reid is value at $41 FGS

i mean he's 50/50 to play forward or back but even so worth a nibble

Well played sir

 

[Anzac16]

Wasn't able to post this before the match, but a nice win.

 

[Thedeftouch]

Heh, someone actually took my 5k bet on WCE to make the 8 at 2.2.... Was that you Natnui?

 

[Thedeftouch]

Heh, someone actually took my 5k bet on WCE to make the 8 at 2.2.... Was that you Natnui?

Just realised it became a big arb against Sportingbet, who are offering 2.05 for WCE to miss the 8 (not sure if serious)

 

[Thedeftouch]

Brodie Grundy looks ill-disciplined and angry, possibly been hanging out with Marley Williams too much

 

[TheMcGrathMan]

Wrong thread but for any interested A-league punters - Got on the Wanderers $2.15 to beat Perth in tonights match. Perth on a 5 game losing streak, WSW with the week off and were pretty damn good last time they played (v Brisbane). Good value I think, worth a bet.

edit: To keep post relevant to thread - 1 unit on Crows +11.5 @ $1.92. Both teams will be having a go I expect naming strong teams, but Crows are my tip to rise up the ladder in 2014 and I think they will keep impressing right throughout the pre-season and into the real stuff.

 

[Willzzz]

Any danger of Collingwood missing for once?

 

[Willzzz]

Lazy 10.2 with about 85% inside 50 efficiency.

 

[Thedeftouch]

Rance might be the best defender getting around

 

[iluvparis]

pretty comfortable that ben reid is value at $41 FGS

i mean he's 50/50 to play forward or back but even so worth a nibble

 

[Lensen]

LOL. Funny.

1800 858 858 for those betting on FGS

does that number arrange the bank wire?

 

[GROTTO]

does that number arrange the bank wire?

Wow, just wow.

Imaginary bets don't count. You didn't win.

Where in here or your bet tracker thread did you say that you have placed an actual dollar/unit amount on Reid?

In your bet tracker thread you placed two bets each of which was $1 that didn't get up.

And you insult me.

So you are only now down $550 from your starting bank of $1000.

I'm actually honestly not gloating at all, I think betting on exotics such as FGS is fraught with danger and surefire way of losing money in the long run. Ironically, I would be happier if you did win and would have been one of the first to congratulate you. I actually don't like seeing people lose.

 

[iluvparis]

LOL at this guy labelling Lenny an after-the-fact punter despite CLEARLY posting the bet before the game started

 

[The_Doctor]

Wow, just wow.

Imaginary bets don't count. You didn't win.

Where in here or your bet tracker thread did you say that you have placed an actual dollar/unit amount on Reid?

In your bet tracker thread you placed two bets each of which was $1 that didn't get up.

And you insult me.

So you are only now down $550 from your starting bank of $1000.

I'm actually honestly not gloating at all, I think betting on exotics such as FGS is fraught with danger and surefire way of losing money in the long run. Ironically, I would be happier if you did win and would have been one of the first to congratulate you. I actually don't like seeing people lose.

Oh gawd

 

[Willzzz]

NAB Challenge - Richmond Tigers vs Collingwood Magpies:
1.5U - Collingwood Magpies Under 98.5 @ $1.90 (Bet365) W

2014 NAB Challenge:
13 – 11 – 0 @ 54% (+13.24U) – ROI 46.2%

 

[Lensen]

Wow, just wow.

Imaginary bets don't count. You didn't win.

Where in here or your bet tracker thread did you say that you have placed an actual dollar/unit amount on Reid?

cool story. whether i actually placed the bet or not is irrelevant to my point. which was having a shot at your passive aggressive "all people that bet FGS are problem gamblers" bit.

In your bet tracker thread you placed two bets each of which was $1 that didn't get up.

And you insult me.

So you are only now down $550 from your starting bank of $1000.

i'm going to continue to have cracks at you in response to cracks at me. your perception of that thread is flawed, unsurprisingly, given the following points:

1. one of the two $1 bets that didn't get up, actually got up
2. the last two pages of that are pretty much just a pisstake, for my amusement and the amusement of maybe one or two others. post 441 should give you some insight into that.

I'm actually honestly not gloating at all, I think betting on exotics such as FGS is fraught with danger and surefire way of losing money in the long run.

you've come a long way in twelve months from spending the last year getting advice about how to bet from people like willzz to now being so sure of yourself that you know everything about punting. betting on anything is not a surefire way of losing money. betting indiscriminately on anything is, but identifying things that are value (i.e. a guy that's 50/50 to play key forward at $41 FGS) can be done in any kind of market