Prediction 2016 - Goals Forecast & Player Ratings

[HyphensBack]

2016 is a RESET for the Carlton FC so with another clean out of the list - How do we go from kicking 219 goals in 2015 to +300 goals in 2016? I am all for more committed footballers but I'm sure I wont get a buzz until we are kicking a few more sausage rolls. Seven guys kicked +10 goals in 2015 and two of them are out the door - who steps up?

With that sort of lift required in the forward line how could our current list have enough player ratings improvements? I forecast increased games from our A Grade Players, a couple of draftees being ready and replacing C grade players and a number of players leaving the club that were full of potential but coasting in 2015.

Below is my forecast - my glass is obviously overflowing - so jump on board and drink the Kool Aid or tell me where I have to temper my expectations.

 

[ralphmalph]

2016 is a RESET for the Carlton FC so with another clean out of the list - How do we go from kicking 219 goals in 2015 to +300 goals in 2016? I am all for more committed footballers but I'm sure I wont get a buzz until we are kicking a few more sausage rolls. Seven guys kicked +10 goals in 2015 and two of them are out the door - who steps up?

With that sort of lift required in the forward line how could our current list have enough player ratings improvements? I forecast increased games from our A Grade Players, a couple of draftees being ready and replacing C grade players and a number of players leaving the club that were full of potential but coasting in 2015.

Below is my forecast - my glass is obviously overflowing - so jump on board and drink the Cool Aid or tell me where I have to temper my expectations.

View attachment 209610

I have not touched the Cool Aid (or Kool Aid) but I have been drinking Furphy. Now that may have affected my judgment enough to not understand some of the columns and misread part of it as 2005 but still, it doesn't strike me as overly optimistic. Or to put it more succinctly (succinter?) no reason why this prediction can't come true.

 

[HyphensBack]

2005 column should read 2015 - I will fix that

 

[ralphmalph]

2005 column should read 2015 - I will fix that

Not a criticism. I have had a lot of beer and could only focus on the goals column. As I said, it seems realistic. Levi could kick more as could Kreuz. Maybe optimistic on Kerridge and Cunnninghamm but otherwise, seems ok. Well done!

 

[Chalky Blues]

2016 is a RESET for the Carlton FC so with another clean out of the list - How do we go from kicking 219 goals in 2015 to +300 goals in 2016? I am all for more committed footballers but I'm sure I wont get a buzz until we are kicking a few more sausage rolls. Seven guys kicked +10 goals in 2015 and two of them are out the door - who steps up?

With that sort of lift required in the forward line how could our current list have enough player ratings improvements? I forecast increased games from our A Grade Players, a couple of draftees being ready and replacing C grade players and a number of players leaving the club that were full of potential but coasting in 2015.

Below is my forecast - my glass is obviously overflowing - so jump on board and drink the Kool Aid or tell me where I have to temper my expectations.
View attachment 209618

I don't mind the look of most of your predictions, I see you are very keen on Cuningham like most of us on here I hope you are right and he plays 15 games in his first season that would mean he is doing his bit and keeping out one of the older boys (10 games would be awesome I reckon).
And I think Daisy may snare a few more if he is played up forward and gets through the season ok (I have everything crossed that he does, I'm sure he wants to prove to every Blues supporter he wasn't a waste of a pick up)
Charlie may just kick his 8 in one game if he gets a game against Essendon their backline will be very suspect and he would be getting their 3rd tall, lets just hope he is a magical as we all hope!
Anyway in all I love the positive stuff on BF this pre season it makes me wanna buy another membership just for the hell of it

 

[bluedabadee]

Originality 8.7
Layout 8.9
Effort 9.2
Use of textas 10

Simmo is still a gun...anything else is just nitpicking.
Thanks for the entertainment; I love it.

 

[HyphensBack]

Originality 8.7
Layout 8.9
Effort 9.2
Use of textas 10

Simmo is still a gun...anything else is just nitpicking.
Thanks for the entertainment; I love it.

I love Simmo as well but I am wondering if Plowman by end of year would have taken his back pocket/flank position - got him on the bench though

Rowe - got him out of the side for Weitering, suspect we will go with extra mobility and only play Rowe on the gorillas

Highlights - if it's bright and shiny it's gotta be right! Red - gone, orange - changing position or losing spot, green - new and shiny

 

[HyphensBack]

Shocked by the lack of Midfielders that are in my Emergencies, Development or Wilderness groups from above

Any chance we have a couple of trade targets already signed up for 2017 - if not then instead of KPP I expect our first three draft picks in November 2016 will all be Midfielders.

 

[Amers]

Jumping from 219 to 300 goals in a season is a pretty big stretch, I understand that 300 is the target, I just reckon it may take a couple of seasons for us to get there.

300 goals = 14 goals a game = 2 goals x 6 forwards + 2 goals from the midfield. Ok, the midfield is likely to contribute more, lessening the load on the forward line. Spread the load among 9-10 goal kickers (per game) and the load is spread even more.

Probably need 2 players to have 40-50 (or 1 to have 80-100) goal seasons with another 5 having 20+ goal seasons. That's 180-200 goals, share another 100 goals among the other 7-12 goal kickers for the year, and we are getting close.

Trying to put names to the numbers, is pretty much guess work ATM IMO.

 

[bluedabadee]

I love Simmo as well but I am wondering if Plowman by end of year would have taken his back pocket/flank position - got him on the bench though

Rowe - got him out of the side for Weitering, suspect we will go with extra mobility and only play Rowe on the gorillas

Highlights - if it's bright and shiny it's gotta be right! Red - gone, orange - changing position or losing spot, green - new and shiny

Good points re Simmo and Rowe. Expect them both to be there in round one, and round 23 personally but can see what you're saying. Don't think anyone would disagree we'll be drafting midfielders next, but at least there is a bunch of small forwards there who are all still young.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

I have 12 players kicking 10 goals or more this year with another not in the poll ... Boekhorst.

 

[PuffDragon89]

Tuohy will also kick 10

 

[HyphensBack]

I have added Zach and Blaine to the list
I had them in my player reviewing kicking 10 goals but if they get more then 10 I will be okay with that

I am super impressed with Cuningham so far based purely on the hype generated on Bigfooty and CFC vids and commentary - can't wait to see some more vision - currently only 3 punters betting he will kick more than 10 goals next year - anyone got insights into his ability to score (and not talking about the ladies)

 

[PuffDragon89]

I have added Zach and Blaine to the list
I had them in my player reviewing kicking 10 goals but if they get more then 10 I will be okay with that

I am super impressed with Cuningham so far based purely on the hype generated on Bigfooty and CFC vids and commentary - can't wait to see some more vision - currently only 3 punters betting he will kick more than 10 goals next year - anyone got insights into his ability to score (and not talking about the ladies)

Graham is another that, providing they play 20+ games, will get to double digits.

 

[therubbernub]

hawks usually have 9-13 goal kickers when they win

 

[HyphensBack]

hawks usually have 9-13 goal kickers when they win

The rubbernub pointed out a stat that prompted me to do some research. If only Levi and Everitt average a goal a game then we would generally average 6-8 goal kickers a game. Pretty poor in comparison to the Hawks.

Well if Bigfooty punters know their football (based on the poll above) we will have 9 footballers who will kick more than 10 goals in 2016.

The Hawks last year had 14 guys who kicked over 10 goals and importantly 4 guys who kicked over 40 goals.
Obviously we need to develop mids/rebounding defenders and a gameplay before our forwards can have the entries the Hawk forwards enjoy but I would have thought in January we are a fairly optimistic bunch but that is a bit of a reality check for me.

Question: do we think the gameplay, mids/halfbacks are still a long way off and our forward entries will not improve OR do we think our forwards (whom we have recruited a truckload off) are not up to it??

 

[HyphensBack]

Latest videos with Gorringe and Everitt have maybe provided a clue to what the forward line might shape up like, this combined with Phillips lighting up at training - leads me to generate three forward line structures

The following three teams capture these insights. The dynamics for the forward line are quite different. I have attempted to rate three forward lines on goal scoring potential, mobility (fwd line pressure reqd), ruck impact and marking capacity whilst keeping the rest of the team consistent.

Note Walker may be replaced with Charlie Curnow at some point

1) Gorringe is training to play as a Half Forward
Tuohy - Jamison - Plowman
Byrne - Weitering - Docherty
Boekhurst - Cripps - Curnow
Thomas - Gorringe - Kerridge
Everitt - Casboult - Walker

Kreuz - Gibbs - Murph
Bench: Buckley - Simpson- Cuningham - White

Goals: 8/10 - 4 guys in forward line who have kicked over 20 goals in a year (Thomas, Casboult, Everitt, Walker), Gorringe is not a proven goal kicker however, no smaller forward deep except for resting mids
Mobility: 8/10 we are very big up forward but Gorringe appears to be more mobile then with Phillips
Marking: 9/10 all capable overhead with a good mix of lead up (Everitt/Gorringe) and contested (Casboult/Walker)
Ruck: 7/10 options but Gorringe is not a second key ruckman just a pinch hitter

2) Everitt has been training as a a Wingman (and a forward)
Tuohy - Jamison - Plowman
Byrne - Weitering - Docherty
Boekhurst - Cripps - Everitt
Thomas - Casboult - Kerridge
Lamb - Phillips - Walker

Kreuz - Gibbs - Murph
Bench: Buckley - Simpson- Cuningham - Curnow

Goals: 7/10 3 guys in forward line who have kicked over 20 goals in a year (Thomas, Casboult, Walker), Our top goal kicker needs from 2015 needs to be given goal kicking opportunities in 2016
Mobility: 9/10 Lamb adds the smaller forward option that has to be a positive for pressure acts
Marking: 8/10 contested marking ability increases but I think we drop a bit in lead up marking ability
Ruck: 7/10 two key ruckman but stuffs up the structures as now the FF is our resting ruck

3) Resting Ruck in the Pocket strategy
Tuohy - Jamison - Plowman
Byrne - Weitering - Docherty
Boekhurst - Cripps - Curnow
Thomas - Casboult - Kerridge
Phillips - Everitt - Walker

Kreuz - Gibbs - Murph
Bench: Buckley - Simpson- Cuningham - White

Goals: 8/10 - 4 guys in forward line who have kicked over 20 goals in a year (Thomas, Casboult, Everitt, Walker) but no smaller forward except for resting mids
Mobility: 7/10 - only one tall on each of the two forward lines but we are bigger and less mobile
Marking: 9/10 - very good mix of lead up and contested marks
Ruck: 9/10 - pure resting ruck scenario

I lean towards option 3 (more goals, stronger marking and ruck combination) and think the mobility issue will be resolved by the different structures/leading patterns Bolts will employ up forward and the extra run we get this year from Boekhurst, Cunningham, Thomas and Gibbs all playing more games.
Any comments or criticisms?

 

[bluebrew]

Single biggest increase in goals will come from improved kicking under pressure from our so called elite mids ..forwards cannot lead when they have no idea where xyz will kick the ball.

 

[HyphensBack]

Single biggest increase in goals will come from improved kicking under pressure from our so called elite mids ..forwards cannot lead when they have no idea where xyz will kick the ball.

I tend to agree blue brew however my concern is our reduction in elite mids (Judd and to some degree Carrots)

What I am excited about is the fact that neither of these had elite disposal skills, although Yarran did. We gotta hope the combination of Cripps and Gibbs can provide options to Murphy and Thomas on the outside. What I am really excited about is two things:

1) potential for Cuningham to be a good ball distributor and the ongoing development of Boekhurst
2) a gameplan - an outsiders perspective is the Carlton coaching staff are in 'reset' mode and I can only hope the ongoing schooling around leading patterns, rules around setup all lead to our game plan NOT being kick and hope!

 

[therubbernub]

I tend to agree blue brew however my concern is our reduction in elite mids (Judd and to some degree Carrots)

What I am excited about is the fact that neither of these had elite disposal skills, although Yarran did. We gotta hope the combination of Cripps and Gibbs can provide options to Murphy and Thomas on the outside. What I am really excited about is two things:

1) potential for Cuningham to be a good ball distributor and the ongoing development of Boekhurst
2) a gameplan - an outsiders perspective is the Carlton coaching staff are in 'reset' mode and I can only hope the ongoing schooling around leading patterns, rules around setup all lead to our game plan NOT being kick and hope!

I acknowledge that the loss of judd will hurt, but I feel/ hope that Boltons philosophy is more proletariat when it come to the team structure. Reliance on a few players brilliance versus reliance on an even spread of effort and skill is deeply flawed in todays AFL, particularly when it comes to midfield. Do you want the brilliance or Yarran or the effort of a Kerridge? Of course its nice if you have both for example Judd and Cripps. But you simply cant fill your side with these sorts of players. So the smart thing to do is develop a much flatter structure in terms of brilliance and a much more robust list in terms of effort. Is it any surprise that the likes of Betts, Garlett, Menzel, Yarran etc have been shown the door in recent years. Kudos though to Betts with the way he has kicked on and become a vastly different player at the crows.
Developing a flatter team structure has numerous benefits.
Game Day: The impact of an injured midfielder or an exhausted one is lessened. The team can play out the four quarters.
Recruitment: If you are not gunning for brilliance then you will pay much less when trading. Likewise you dont suffer as much when your team has later picks ie when you play finals, as you are still able to draft "ëffort" rather than the obvious skills of the earlier picks.
Trading: If you can replace tradeable players with similar players, then you can afford to extract maximum value from them at trade time.
List evaluation: If your focus becomes the role players/ foot soldiers then effort becomes much more important. Constant development of these types of players resulting in a broad pool of midfield types, creates competition and also helps identify those players who are not going to make it. It also shows up the better players, who rise above the pack and become indispensable - your hodges and Mitchells etc. It also allows you to properly target players that fill a key need eg Lake and Frawly.

Clearly I am excited by the current approach that seems to be being established. I have high hopes that going forward, we will have many more midfielders that are pushing for selection. I am also not disappointed in the most recent drafting of mainly KPP's. This had to be done. We needed more class in this area to add to Henderson. When he was traded/ left this made it imperative. Added to this was the KPP strength in a shallow draft, and the decision to go KPP in 2015 draft was reasonable. Its early days but it seems that all of our top 5 picks have the attitude to succeed. Also Curnow is a crossover size and could easily play midfield as well as KPP, so with cuningham we have potentially added significantly to our midfield as well.

I am particularly interested to see how our more recent drafting improves this year. Most are not yet rating the likes of Boekhorst Graham Buckley Byrne Smith. If they can further develop this year, then our drafting of recent times seems a whole lot better than the years before.

I am also excited to see how the trades work out. Signs are good that Phillips, Plowman, Kerridge, at least will be part of our future.

Thats a lot of moving pieces that could potentially transform our team structure and performance this year.

 

[ShanDog]

We don't have forwards who can magic goals out of seemingly nowhere like Franklin, Cameron, Stringer etc. That's not to say Cas and co aren't of a decent quality, but their ability to kick goals rests so much more in the hands of our coaches than others. We need the plans (forward leading patterns and team game style alike) and midfielders to execute those plans for them to be successful.

 

[retreat]

In The Long run having To rely on a Well performed game plan rather than on Magic out of forwards might build The ingredients for a Good proactive learning environment from which Players could benefit And thrive. ...that Kind of 'yes we can' feeling that leads To 'lets tra It again'... satisfaction out of d.i.y. Even for Little achievements

 

[therubbernub]

We don't have forwards who can magic goals out of seemingly nowhere like Franklin, Cameron, Stringer etc. That's not to say Cas and co aren't of a decent quality, but their ability to kick goals rests so much more in the hands of our coaches than others. We need the plans (forward leading patterns and team game style alike) and midfielders to execute those plans for them to be successful.

Hawks went ok after buddy left

 

[Doro]

Hawks went ok after buddy left

We don't have their backup plan, Roughy Gunston, Cyril etc either. It will be hard work for us up front, I can't see any great joy from the fwd line this year. Green shoots are about all Im expecting.

 

[ShanDog]

Hawks went ok after buddy left

They did, because they have the star forwards who can create goals themselves (Roughead, Gunston, Breust), midfielders who regularly contribute and a game plan so well drilled into them. My point is that we lack the first part there and will rely very heavily on the other two points to score enough goals.

This isn't a pot-shot as Casboult or any of our other forwards at all, it's just the last genuine forward we had that could dominate a F50 in spite of everyone else around him was Fev.