List Mgmt. 2018 Trade and Free Agency Discussion

[CWaffles]

I spent the best part of 3 years working at ski hills mate don't worry

 

[Topkent]

I agree to a certain degree, but there's still an objective element to it: if we end with only Hogan out and May in, then we've objectively lost, regardless of whether we got the player we set out to get. That's because Hogan is objectively worth (significantly) more than May.

I'm open to overpaying a bit (for example, if we ended up getting 5&6 or 5&10 for Hogan and traded pick 5 for May I'd say we've over-paid a bit, but that's ok), but not just paying hugely over because we wanted the particular player.

Because ultimately it's a competition and we're here to win. And so while we don't want to be a club that no-one wants to trade with, at the same time we don't want to be the easy beats that get nowhere near fair value for players. Otherwise clubs know they can raid our players and get great deals. We need to be aiming for win-wins where we come out slightly on top.

But it's not as simple as saying Hogan is better than May.
If you have an excess in one area and a need in another then you should do whatever you want to improve your footy club.
If we had no inside mids would Tyson be worth a 2nd rounder? No. However we are happy to 'lose' that trade if the pick can be used elsewhere.

Losing Hogan is bad, but if May comes in and improved our defence by 3 goals then it can still be considered a win.


Sure we should fight for the best deal possible and I wouldn't trade Hogan for a single pick but someone has to 'lose' a trade.

 

[Onstoppable]

View attachment 568670

 

[Onstoppable]

But it's not as simple as saying Hogan is better than May.
If you have an excess in one area and a need in another then you should do whatever you want to improve your footy club.
If we had no inside mids would Tyson be worth a 2nd rounder? No. However we are happy to 'lose' that trade if the pick can be used elsewhere.

Losing Hogan is bad, but if May comes in and improved our defence by 3 goals then it can still be considered a win.


Sure we should fight for the best deal possible and I wouldn't trade Hogan for a single pick but someone has to 'lose' a trade.

Agreed, definitely should be our aim to improve our team overall, and agree that someone has to lose a trade (most of the time). I guess I'm just cautious of us only considering trying to improve the team overall at the expense of still aiming for (at least) roughly fair value.

I suspect all of this is moot anyway: as Mahoney said the other day, it looks like we're going to push for a lot, which is great. From there if we over-pay for May then I'm ok with it, as long as we've got good value for Hogan.

RE Tyson I agree, but think Hogan is a bit different, because he has top 10 in the league potential (obviously not there yet, and may not ever get there, but if he can take the 20 disposal, 2.5 goal, 6 mark average that he had against mid-lower table teams and get it going against top teams as well then he'll be top 10). So not only is he a good-very good player now, he has a way higher ceiling. Hence we're not just trading out a solid player that we have lots of, we're trading out a potential legend of the game from a position that's hard to find. But agree with the principle over-all.

 

[Topkent]

Agreed, definitely should be our aim to improve our team overall, and agree that someone has to lose a trade (most of the time). I guess I'm just cautious of us only considering trying to improve the team overall at the expense of still aiming for (at least) roughly fair value.

I suspect all of this is moot anyway: as Mahoney said the other day, it looks like we're going to push for a lot, which is great. From there if we over-pay for May then I'm ok with it, as long as we've got good value for Hogan.

RE Tyson I agree, but think Hogan is a bit different, because he has top 10 in the league potential (obviously not there yet, and may not ever get there, but if he can take the 20 disposal, 2.5 goal, 6 mark average that he had against mid-lower table teams and get it going against top teams as well then he'll be top 10). So not only is he a good-very good player now, he has a way higher ceiling. Hence we're not just trading out a solid player that we have lots of, we're trading out a potential legend of the game from a position that's hard to find. But agree with the principle over-all.

Considering we paid pick 3 and 13 to draft him and he's now a proven AFL level player I would consider it incredibly poor business to lose him for a deal that isn't equivalent to that.

 

[harry000]

But it's not as simple as saying Hogan is better than May.
If you have an excess in one area and a need in another then you should do whatever you want to improve your footy club.
If we had no inside mids would Tyson be worth a 2nd rounder? No. However we are happy to 'lose' that trade if the pick can be used elsewhere.

Losing Hogan is bad, but if May comes in and improved our defence by 3 goals then it can still be considered a win.


Sure we should fight for the best deal possible and I wouldn't trade Hogan for a single pick but someone has to 'lose' a trade.

Agree... on transition we could have have Lever and May posting up one on either side of the ground on top of Hibberd, Salem and Jetta who can also take an intercept mark... and then frost who has leg speed to cover any talls who get over the top..

When there is congestion in the oppo forward line good luck out marking Lever, May and Gawn with a long kick in...

Opposition kick outs.. Gawny on one side, May and Lever on the other.

We will be impenetrable if it all clicks.

 

[HANDSOLO]

Agreed, definitely should be our aim to improve our team overall, and agree that someone has to lose a trade (most of the time). I guess I'm just cautious of us only considering trying to improve the team overall at the expense of still aiming for (at least) roughly fair value.

I suspect all of this is moot anyway: as Mahoney said the other day, it looks like we're going to push for a lot, which is great. From there if we over-pay for May then I'm ok with it, as long as we've got good value for Hogan.

RE Tyson I agree, but think Hogan is a bit different, because he has top 10 in the league potential (obviously not there yet, and may not ever get there, but if he can take the 20 disposal, 2.5 goal, 6 mark average that he had against mid-lower table teams and get it going against top teams as well then he'll be top 10). So not only is he a good-very good player now, he has a way higher ceiling. Hence we're not just trading out a solid player that we have lots of, we're trading out a potential legend of the game from a position that's hard to find. But agree with the principle over-all.

We have already done the analysis that he is only about the 36th best player in the league 23 and under. Could improve though

 

[Onstoppable]

Considering we paid pick 3 and 13 to draft him and he's now a proven AFL level player I would consider it incredibly poor business to lose him for a deal that isn't equivalent to that.

Agreed, I think people tend to forget this is what we paid for him. Hopefully we're using this as a starting point to build on, with the aim of getting something decently better (really hoping for 5&6, even if we give something back, but could live with 5&9/10).

 

[Tulip]

Agree... on transition we could have have Lever and May posting up one on either side of the ground on top of Hibberd, Salem and Jetta who can also take an intercept mark... and then frost who has leg speed to cover any talls who get over the top..

Unfortunately these three are actually quite poor when it comes to intercept marking, particularly Salem. Hunt isn't great either. Kolodjashnij has better numbers than all four, funnily enough. Could see him slotting in comfortably if he can get some continuity.

 

[Tulip]

Agreed, I think people tend to forget this is what we paid for him. Hopefully we're using this as a starting point to build on, with the aim of getting something decently better (really hoping for 5&6, even if we give something back, but could live with 5&9/10).

I think it was 3 and 13 for Hogan, 20 and Barry. Which was still a massive price for a guy who was underaged and unproven. I reckon the deal will be 6 and 9, sadly.

 

[Cromulent1]

Several weeks ago I spoke to someone very, very close to Jesse (Jesse was present but couldn't hear) and he said that Jesse considered Melbourne, the city, as a great place to live and that he wouldn't be going back to Perth anytime soon. His living circumstances here had changed for the better, making homelife much more enjoyable and this person was in a very good place to make these statements. I nearly posted it here at the time but there wasn't any (extra) buzz about him leaving then. So with this said, i'm suprised things have escalated to the point they are at now and ponder deeply wether this is a club driven push. Be it for trade or injury reasons, something just doesn't sit right with me. Of course people can change their minds in a heartbeat but i'm just hoping the club aren't being too ruthless and pulling at the threads of what seems to be a much better culture around the place these days.

 

[Topkent]

Unfortunately these three are actually quite poor when it comes to intercept marking, particularly Salem. Hunt isn't great either. Kolodjashnij has better numbers than all four, funnily enough. Could see him slotting in comfortably if he can get some continuity.

Yep I don't remember Salem in comparison to other defenders is a poor intercept mark ( not what he's there for)
Hibberd and Jetta I would consider average. Certainly would say they specialise in it. Omac is a negator and frost is more useful when the balls on the ground.

Super obvious why we were so desperate for lever as intercept marking was probably our biggest weakness end of 2017

I think it was 3 and 13 for Hogan, 20 and Barry. Which was still a massive price for a guy who was underaged and unproven. I reckon the deal will be 6 and 9, sadly.

Yeah that's the right deal. 6 and 9 is fair enough in return I think.

 

[schmuttt]

Several weeks ago I spoke to someone very, very close to Jessie (Jessie was present but couldn't hear) and he said that Jessie considered Melbourne, the city, as a great place to live and that he wouldn't be going back to Perth anytime soon. His living circumstances here had changed for the better, making homelife much more enjoyable and this person was in a very good place to make these statements. I nearly posted it here at the time but there wasn't any (extra) buzz about him leaving then. So with this said, i'm suprised things have escalated to the point they are at now and ponder deeply wether this is a club driven push. Be it for trade or injury reasons, something just doesn't sit right with me. Of course people can change their minds in a heartbeat but i'm just hoping the club aren't being too ruthless and pulling at the threads of what seems to be a much better culture around the place these days.

Club is OK with him going and the Freo offer is massive.

 

[Onstoppable]

I think it was 3 and 13 for Hogan, 20 and Barry. Which was still a massive price for a guy who was underaged and unproven. I reckon the deal will be 6 and 9, sadly.

True. Barry isn't/wasn't really worth much, but pick 20 is a decent pick.

Regardless, Hogan is surely worth more now than he was then, but not sure we'll get a huge amount more than we paid. Would love 5&6, but can't help but feel you're right and we'll only get 6&9.

 

[Topkent]

Also the picks could be irrelevant. If we have a player we like who we are sure will be available with pick 9 then we don't need 5/6 if 5/9 gets us the same player.

 

[Tulip]

Several weeks ago I spoke to someone very, very close to Jessie (Jessie was present but couldn't hear) and he said that Jessie considered Melbourne, the city, as a great place to live and that he wouldn't be going back to Perth anytime soon. His living circumstances here had changed for the better, making homelife much more enjoyable and this person was in a very good place to make these statements. I nearly posted it here at the time but there wasn't any (extra) buzz about him leaving then. So with this said, i'm suprised things have escalated to the point they are at now and ponder deeply wether this is a club driven push. Be it for trade or injury reasons, something just doesn't sit right with me. Of course people can change their minds in a heartbeat but i'm just hoping the club aren't being too ruthless and pulling at the threads of what seems to be a much better culture around the place these days.

Supposedly Freo began actively, aggressively pursuing him a few weeks back, and if the reported money is correct then he would be derelict to reject it IMO. The club winning a couple of finals and seeing Weideman finally emerge probably helped convince them that now is the time, given the added value of him still being contracted.

 

[Tulip]

Also the picks could be irrelevant. If we have a player we like who we are sure will be available with pick 9 then we don't need 5/6 if 5/9 gets us the same player.

Far be it from me to question JT, and I still don't really know any names, but supposedly the cream of this draft class is in the 1-6 range.

 

[harry000]

Unfortunately these three are actually quite poor when it comes to intercept marking, particularly Salem. Hunt isn't great either. Kolodjashnij has better numbers than all four, funnily enough. Could see him slotting in comfortably if he can get some continuity.

Maybe not elite marking wise but Jetta is 15th in the comp for total intercepts.

Thought Salem was improving in this facet towards the end of the year and he and hibbo are both top 20 in the comp for rebound 50s.

 

[Scythe94]

Here he goes again.

 

[Topkent]

Maybe not elite marking wise but Jetta is 15th in the comp for total intercepts.

Thought Salem was improving in this facet towards the end of the year and he and hibbo are both top 20 in the comp for rebound 50s.

Rebounding and intercepting are 2 completely different things though. Salem getting a handball off Omac and kicking it 50m is a rebound.

 

[Tulip]

Here he goes again.

Tom Boyd = pick 6 and Griffin
Lachie Weller = pick 2
Jesse Hogan = pick 5

Gotcha

 

[harry000]

Rebounding and intercepting are 2 completely different things though. Salem getting a handball off Omac and kicking it 50m is a rebound.

Yeah I get that.

I withdraw that they are all amazing intercept marks.

My point is. Our defense will be awesome and well balanced.

More so than it is now.

 

[demon21]

People have to remember we did pay lot to get Hogan, But we also got Viney as a 2nd round pick cause GC and GWS didn't bid on him and everyone knew Melb was going to match the bid. That's why Melb who had pick 2 of the mini draft picks paid lot more than GC who had pick 1 of the mini draft pick and got Martin.

 

[TheCount]

Here he goes again.

He's setting me off this bloke. What's with his "Melbourne will settle for what they get" opinion of his?

Out of Contract players are only worth what a club will pay for them ... but Under Contract players are only worth what their team will give them up for ... there is NO WAY just Pick 5 will do it.

Surely we've made it clear to Jesse, we'll do the trade if it meets our requirements, otherwise he'll have to stay.

 

[TheDarkDwarf]

If Hogan really has got a massive deal being offered, he would be certifiably insane NOT to at least look at Freo's facilities, regardless of what his current thinking is.

Maybe seeing it will turn him right off. Maybe he'll have a coffee in Freo after the tour and think "Nope.... not giving up Melbourne coffee for this shit". Maybe he'll see they have the full suite of Gran Tourismo games on classic consoles in the rec rooms and he'll sign there and then.

If that is the case then he is definitely gone.