AFL 2020 - AFL Round 11 (no aftertiming allowed)

[iluvparis]

My Stengle AGS bet won inside 5mins of play.

What's the fun in that

 

[squeaky1000]

SGM: McGrath, Saad, Swallow, Miller, Greenwood 15+ $2 lads

 

[JuniorWatch]

Corbett AGS 2.15
2+ $6

One of those players who doesn't do much but generally has a shot at goal

Corbett from memory plays pretty high and is a shouse kick for goal. His career AGS of 2/9 backs that up.
I reckon you're on the right track though as we've gone in a KPD short.
Aaron Francis will be forced to play on Sam Day which isn't a good matchup for us. Only recently gone are the days when Francis routinely gave up 3 goals a game but Day should have a few pings on him.
2+ $4.75
3+ $17
TAB

 

[dontlimitme]

$50 Merrett Most Disposals GRP 1/Merrett 20+/King 2+ Goals/Tipa AGS @ 15 Boosted (SB)
$50 Merrett 20+/Mcgrath 20+/Greenwood 20+/Miller 20+/Day AGS/Ainsworth AGS/Langford AGS@ 18.59 (LADS)

 

[sneak]

Like Langford ags and 2+
And Corbett ags

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Corbett from memory plays pretty high and is a shouse kick for goal. His career AGS of 2/9 backs that up.
I reckon you're on the right track though as we've gone in a KPD short.
Aaron Francis will be forced to play on Sam Day which isn't a good matchup for us. Only recently gone are the days when Francis routinely gave up 3 goals a game but Day should have a few pings on him.
2+ $4.75
3+ $17
TAB

Now into $4.50 and $13.

Day hasn't kicked a goal in weeks though.

Still, I like your thinking.

 

[Ohh Ok]

2.5u Zaharakis AGS @ $1.90 (PointsBet)

Has been playing a chf role since round 4 (correct if wrong). 4/6 since being there, one of those misses he kicked two behinds.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

1u Merrett 30+ touches @ 8.50 (beteasy)

2/3 from last three matches this season.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Essendon are not scoring in the final quarter lately.

Last three matches aggregate 4th quarter score = 2.11 (opponents 8.11)

Coming off a five-day break vs Gold Coast six-day break.

We've seen a few last quarter blowouts lately. This could be another.

.5u Gold Coast final quarter 25-32 @ 21 (SB)
.5u Gold Coast final quarter 33+ @ 61 (SB)

 

[GROTTO]

Essendon are not scoring in the final quarter lately.

Last three matches aggregate 4th quarter score = 2.11 (opponents 8.11)

Coming off a five-day break vs Gold Coast six-day break.

We've seen a few last quarter blowouts lately. This could be another.

.5u Gold Coast final quarter 25-32 @ 21
.5u Gold Coast final quarter 33+ @ 61

Where are these odds?

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Where are these odds?

SB, sorry, amended my post to include.

 

[NYRB]

Essendon to start like a house on fire

Essendon +1.5 line 1st Qtr & Essendon first to 15 pts in 2nd Qtr SGM @ $6.84 Boosted to $7.57 at Neds

 

[NonPhixion]

1u Merrett 30+ touches @ 8.50 (beteasy)

2/3 from last three matches this season.

great find

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

1u Merrett 30+ touches @ 8.50 (beteasy)

2/3 from last three matches this season.

great find

$3.25 at Sportsbet
$8.50 at BetEasy

I’m on for $300

 

[NYRB]

Neds 6 Pack Special:

Ben King, Tipungwuti, Rankine, Langford, Ainsworth, or McKernan to score the 1st goal in the 1st quarter paying $2.90

or you can take the Value Pack:

Ben King, Tipungwuti, Weller, Zaharakis, Swallow, McKernan to score the 1st goal in the 1st quarter paying $3.90


Jeez, I sound like a bottle attendant/liquor salesman.

 

[AP3XS]

1u Merrett 30+ touches @ 8.50 (beteasy)

2/3 from last three matches this season.

Was going to take this, but it's in to $5.50 now. Not worth it at that price I don't reckon.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

.5u Fiorini AGS $3 (Lads)

GC dropped two forwards, only brought in one, suggests Fiorini may spend time forward.

Kicked a goal in his last match (Rd 6) and two against Essendon last year.

 

[NYRB]

I'm on the Flanders Bigfooty train as well

Sam Flanders @ $2.50 Anytime Goalscorer

I have taken him for 2+ Goals, 3+ Goals. From what I am reading he is a small forward listed at 182 cm and has kicked goals for Vic Country before. Feel like if he kicks a bag in this game, we may never see this price again I'm on.

Going for a SGM as well:

Sam Flanders to Score a Goal
Essendon +6.5 Line
Kyle Langford to score 2+ Goals

thats paying $13.91 boosted to $16.49 at Neds


Feel like Swallow is a better chance of a goal than Flanders
Another SGM:
David Swallow to score a goal
Essendon +6.5 points Line
Langford to score 2+ Goals

odds: $11.96 boosted to $13.93 at Ladbrokes

and the hail mary

Swallow Anytime goalscorer
Flanders anytime goalscorer
Essendon to win
Langford 2+ Goals

odds: $62 (boosted to $71 on Sportsbet)

.5u Fiorini AGS $3 (Lads)

GC dropped two forwards, only brought in one, suggests Fiorini may spend time forward.

Kicked a goal in his last match (Rd 6) and two against Essendon last year.

Tailed you on Fiorini as well @ $3

 

[mouncey2franklin]

A dude on the Essendon board wrote this:

The starting back 6 has an average of 45 games. Youngest in the AFL.

So I decided to check if this is legit.

Gleeson (83) Francis (33) BZK (4)
Ridley (18) Redman (33) Saad (101)

Also Guelfi (35)

Average: 44 games.

I don't know if that is the youngest in the AFL but it would have to be close.

Crazy Worsfold may be planning a 'late change' to bring Hurley into the team but if that doesn't happen, I might load up on some Suns forwards.

**** it I'll do it anyway.



This could be the best chance King has ever had to tear a game apart.

He kicked four against Essendon last year when they had Hooker and Ambrose but no Hurley.

Tonight there's no Hooker, Ambrose OR Hurley*

*crazy Worsfold not withstanding.

1u bonus bet King 4g+ @ 9 (TAB, you can get slightly better odds at SB but I had a free bet with TAB)
1u bonus bet King 5g+ @ 26 (as above)
.5u King 6g+ @ 91 (SB)

Also a few small multis e.g. King 4g+ Day 2+ Rankine 2+ @ 118 (powered at SB, 101 normally).

 

[NYRB]

In 2020:
Gold Coast average score when they win: 80.40 points
Gold Coast average score when they lose: 45 pts

Essendon average score when they win: 66.80 pts
Essendon average score when they lose: 46.25 pts

Reckon if Essendon win, totals will be around 111 ish
Reckon if Gold Coast win, totals will be around 126 ish

Like I said before, think the 1st quarter will be real important, sense Essendon can close down and play a bit more slower tempo if they go ahead. Suns are a younger team, and being young, you play with more dare. If Suns are ahead, can see the game open up both ways.

 

[dontlimitme]

$50 Merrett Most Disposals/King Most goals @ 13 (SB)

 

[NonPhixion]

$50 Merrett Most Disposals/King Most goals @ 13 (SB)

put these in a SGM, most Disp GrA & most goals Gr1. You will get better odds and protection if someone not in the group gets more touches or goals

I’ve done those 2 & added Shiel 15+ $23.50

 

[dontlimitme]

put these in a SGM, most Disp GrA & most goals Gr1. You will get better odds and protection if someone not in the group gets more touches or goals

I’ve done those 2 & added Shiel 15+ $23.50

thanks for the tip

added merrett 20+/Merrett most disp GRP A/King 2+/King Most Goals @ 18

 

[NYRB]

Suns when they kick 6+ goals in the 1st half, don't lose by more than 4 points this season. (4 wins and 1 loss- with that loss being by 4 points to the Saints)

Another interesting note is when the Suns lose the 1st half this season, they go on to lose the 2nd halves as well. (0 wins and 5 losses in 2nd half- when trailing at half time). It's fair to say the difference between the Suns best and their worse is fairly large.

Starting to feel like the Suns could start with a house on fire.

Suns to win 1st Qtr & Suns first to 15 pts in the 2nd qtr paying $5.07

 

[dontlimitme]

Essendon to start like a house on fire

Essendon +1.5 line 1st Qtr & Essendon first to 15 pts in 2nd Qtr SGM @ $6.84 Boosted to $7.57 at Neds

Starting to feel like the Suns could start with a house on fire.

Suns to win 1st Qtr & Suns first to 15 pts in the 2nd qtr paying $5.07

are you schizophrenic