balmainforever
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AFLW 2024 - Round 9 - Indigenous Round - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
AFL 2022 AFL Round 12
- Thread starter balmainforever
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Hawthorn might be a bet. Always play well against the Pies, they’re also a bit overrated.
When has the Gold Coast ever been $1.08 against anyone?
When has the Gold Coast ever been $1.08 against anyone?
- Feb 25, 2013
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In
- Jun 16, 2018
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That Gold Coast line looks tasty.
North will be lucky to score more than six goals.
Can the Suns score more than twelve? I say 'yes'.
North will be lucky to score more than six goals.
Can the Suns score more than twelve? I say 'yes'.
West Coast line pretty good? Adelaide suck just as much.
+34.5 on 365
+34.5 on 365
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Gold Coast surely with a big leg up over the Roos, playing back to back in Darwin? If I stand to be corrected North have never played a regular season game up at Marrara. Playing at the same ground within 2 weeks is a big advantage for Suns, especially a ground which doesn't regularly host AFL matches.
Playing in twilight conditions over night means it could be a more higher scoring game than the one on the weekend. Ground conditions in Darwin last Saturday seemed much more heavier in 2nd half.
Suns surely be looking for a win with percentage, with teams around them with slightly better percentages than them. They looked pretty ruthless for 4 quarters against Hawthorn on the weekend- something you havent seen much of from them in yesteryear. Think the Suns might be looking for a 10 goal win minimum, but to really be in finals calculations, a 15 goal+ win, wouldnt hurt.
Playing in twilight conditions over night means it could be a more higher scoring game than the one on the weekend. Ground conditions in Darwin last Saturday seemed much more heavier in 2nd half.
Suns surely be looking for a win with percentage, with teams around them with slightly better percentages than them. They looked pretty ruthless for 4 quarters against Hawthorn on the weekend- something you havent seen much of from them in yesteryear. Think the Suns might be looking for a 10 goal win minimum, but to really be in finals calculations, a 15 goal+ win, wouldnt hurt.
GROTTO
TheBrownDog
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A week out before the game, I dont think its ever happened in their 10+ year history, surely?
Maybe against the Giants in their embryonic years.
- Jun 16, 2018
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Excellent observation.
To compound things, North struggled against GC / Bris up north, even when the Kangas were a good team.
My theory is that North was a mediocre team (at best) skills wise from the later Laidley years through the Scott years.
They couldn't handle the slippery ball and were exposed when venturing to the tropics.
The team is significantly worse skills wise now than even during the worst Scott years.
Meanwhile the Suns know the conditions well and, as you rightly point out, have recent experience in Darwin to boot.
I can see this being a 12 goal blowout, even if it is a relatively low-scoring game.
Maybe it is time to forget the goal trains and focus on the margin trains.
Perhaps 0.5u each GC -40, -50, -60, something like this could be the go.
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Rhylee West had 6 disposals inside the Dogs forward 50 on Saturday and kicked 2 goals. Nice price again.
2+ @ $13 365
3+ @ $91
4+ @ $750
2+ @ $13 365
3+ @ $91
4+ @ $750
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feel like north team total under is the play
It is every week.
Crows vs Eagles U152.5 SB
Also, alternates all the way down to U110.5 @ $16
Two of the leagues bottom three scoring teams. Only other comparable total up is 149.5 on Lads. Smack bang in the middle of another wet weekend so don’t mind the early play here.
Also, alternates all the way down to U110.5 @ $16
Two of the leagues bottom three scoring teams. Only other comparable total up is 149.5 on Lads. Smack bang in the middle of another wet weekend so don’t mind the early play here.
u150.5 1.9 Tab, Goldbet
Its not the coach
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I like these, Have had a go on each and multied all up.
Bulldogs W @1.90 Tab
S.Berry 15+D @1.70 Tab only 1.37SB
North Melbourne +45.5 @1.90 Tab
Collingwood W @1.50 Tab
Bulldogs W @1.90 Tab
S.Berry 15+D @1.70 Tab only 1.37SB
North Melbourne +45.5 @1.90 Tab
Collingwood W @1.50 Tab
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Hawkins 3
Stengle 2
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Rosas
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@20
Stengle 2
Naughton 2
Chol 2
Rosas
Heeney
@20
Its not the coach
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S.Berry 15+ now into $1.40@tab from $1.70
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Its not the coach
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Singles
Weightman 2+ g @2.30 Tab has a good 2+ hit rate.
Rankine 3+ g @5.00 Tab plenty of chances last week, Should have got 3, Plaing North this week and over due to kick a few.
Multi
Weightman 2+g
Berry 15+ dis
Rankine 3+g
De goey 20+d @22.54Tab
Weightman 2+ g @2.30 Tab has a good 2+ hit rate.
Rankine 3+ g @5.00 Tab plenty of chances last week, Should have got 3, Plaing North this week and over due to kick a few.
Multi
Weightman 2+g
Berry 15+ dis
Rankine 3+g
De goey 20+d @22.54Tab
Its not the coach
Cancelled
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Sportsbet player props really are shit at the moment, Might change later in the week but more value at Tab for what I've seen
pendlebury_10
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Great price on Rankine, if conditions suit the floodgates could really open.
3+ @ $5
4+ @ $13
5+ @ $41
All TAB
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Feel interesting Ladbrokes Mix and match games early
Adelaide 1.55 v 2.29 Geelong (has come in from Adelaide 1.52 v 2.36 Geelong)
Gold Coast 1.42 v 2.66 Collingwood
West Coast 2.05 v 1.69 North Melbourne
A couple of the underdogs look decent there.
This round looks a bit low scoring for me. Could see potentially 4-5 of those games going the under. (with the weather affecting probably 3 games, and Freo being a defensive side)
Freo v Brisbane is two contrasting styles of game. 1st ranked defence in the comp v 1st ranked attack in the comp. Genuinely in games like this, its the defences that come out on top. However, Brisbane played well against Freo last year there and I quite like them at above evens here. Brisbane dont mind playing at the new stadium with a 2-1 record there. Current line is under/over 162.5 pts. It might pay to watch a quarter or two to possibly , and bet in-play if given the chance. Do get the feeling if Freo get out to a 2-3 goal lead, they usually are very good at controlling leads. A Brisbane 2-3 goal lead during the game, could see a much attacking game either way.
All the unders/overs for all six matches look about right for this round.
Adelaide 1.55 v 2.29 Geelong (has come in from Adelaide 1.52 v 2.36 Geelong)
Gold Coast 1.42 v 2.66 Collingwood
West Coast 2.05 v 1.69 North Melbourne
A couple of the underdogs look decent there.
This round looks a bit low scoring for me. Could see potentially 4-5 of those games going the under. (with the weather affecting probably 3 games, and Freo being a defensive side)
Freo v Brisbane is two contrasting styles of game. 1st ranked defence in the comp v 1st ranked attack in the comp. Genuinely in games like this, its the defences that come out on top. However, Brisbane played well against Freo last year there and I quite like them at above evens here. Brisbane dont mind playing at the new stadium with a 2-1 record there. Current line is under/over 162.5 pts. It might pay to watch a quarter or two to possibly , and bet in-play if given the chance. Do get the feeling if Freo get out to a 2-3 goal lead, they usually are very good at controlling leads. A Brisbane 2-3 goal lead during the game, could see a much attacking game either way.
All the unders/overs for all six matches look about right for this round.
He was 81 for 5 yesterday.
Its not the coach
Cancelled
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Its not the coach
Cancelled
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Combined same game multis
Crows v West Coast
Walker 2+
Fogarty ATG
S Berry 15+D
West 15+D
G.Coast v North
Larkey 2+
Rankine 2+
Curtis ATG @22SB
Crows v West Coast
Walker 2+
Fogarty ATG
S Berry 15+D
West 15+D
G.Coast v North
Larkey 2+
Rankine 2+
Curtis ATG @22SB
Crock Hunter
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Sportsbet have now released their SGM ‘Bet Tracker’ product. Have just updated my app. This is gonna be so good for my 10 leg snake multis 
After having a massive run in rounds 5-7 and then getting beat up by the bookies in rounds 8 and 9, I'm now on a streak of two winning weeks in a row. Looking forward to hopefully finding some time to update my spreadsheet this weekend so that I can work out exactly where I am at.
1u - Multi - $8.50 - Ladbrokes
⁃ Western Bulldogs 1st Qtr
⁃ Adelaide 2nd Qtr
⁃ Gold Coast -22.5 2nd Half
⁃ Melbourne 1st Qtr, Melbourne 1st Half
Another crack at a Qtrs/halves multi. Write ups for Bulldogs, Gold Coast and Melbourne below. Taking Adelaide to win the 2nd Qtr as West Coast are yet to win one in 2022. Really important for Adelaide in front of the home crowd to get the job done. West Coast very defeated.
2.5u - Western Bulldogs 1st Qtr SU - $1.88 - Ladbrokes
Money coming in for the Dogs so happy to jump on them for the first quarter. They’ve ranked 1st there in 2021 and now 2nd in 2022. With their start to the season, every game is now a must win for them to ensure they make the 8, this exemplifies the emphasis on a strong and motivated start to a game. Things are starting to go right for them on the field too, a massive win against the Eagles on the weekend, and have begun to regain some key personnel on the field with Stef Martin and Bailey Smith likely to rejoin the side this week. Probably not as much of a factor for Geelong, but definitely a bit of a motivational factor for Western Bullsogs are losing after the siren against Geelong last year.
2u - Soligo AGS - $2.25 - 365
Trying to find a bit of value in the Adelaide goal scorers. Has had 2.1 in the last two games and as a young player will be driven to make an impact on the scoreboard.
3u - Gold Coast -22.5 (Second Half) - $1.88 - Ladbrokes
Gold Coast should get the job done against North, Dew coaching for wins each week and the Suns have picked up some form. I was very surprised to see that North have faded out of games as heavily as they have. In 2022 the opposing team has cover this line in 9/11 games. Post game it was commented on how well the Suns played the conditions and how alike they are to the conditions they train in during preseason. This showed in the way they played and also ran over Hawthorn in the second half. They’ll be massively boosted by spending the whole week in the NT.
2.5u - Simpkin 25+ disposals - $2 - TAB
Been burnt by him a bit this season but finally got going on the weekend with 29 disposals, even had to work through a tag. Shouldn’t have to worry about a tag this week, but will be again getting the strong CBA numbers he’s had all season.
5u - Melbourne 1st Qtr, Melbourne 1st Half - $1.77 - Ladbrokes
Probably the worst time for Sydney to have to front up against Melbourne off the back of their first loss in a long time. Expecting Melbourne to come out all guns blazing and to make an example of Sydney. The quarter/half trends align nicely for this one too. Melbourne have won 10/11 first quarters this year and then gone on to win 9/11 first halves. Sydney on the flip side have only won 4/11 first quarters and 4/11 first halves
4u - Rich 25+ disposals - $2 - TAB
1u - Rich 30+ disposals - $4.75 - TAB
Took the unders on Rich for a very easy collect on the week, match up was an absolute shocker for him and he historically performs poorly vs the Giants. Flip over to this week and he gets one of the best match ups in the comp against Freo who like to park men behind the ball. Is still in ripping form when you consider he has gone 25+ in 5 of his last 7 games. Had 31 and 28 on Freo last year.
2.5u - Serong 25+ disposals - $1.85 - 365
Has been quietly going about his thing for 6/9 for 25+ on the season. Attention is on Brodie, Brayshaw and potentially now Fyfe this weekend which allows him to go about his thing.
1u - Multi - $8.50 - Ladbrokes
⁃ Western Bulldogs 1st Qtr
⁃ Adelaide 2nd Qtr
⁃ Gold Coast -22.5 2nd Half
⁃ Melbourne 1st Qtr, Melbourne 1st Half
Another crack at a Qtrs/halves multi. Write ups for Bulldogs, Gold Coast and Melbourne below. Taking Adelaide to win the 2nd Qtr as West Coast are yet to win one in 2022. Really important for Adelaide in front of the home crowd to get the job done. West Coast very defeated.
2.5u - Western Bulldogs 1st Qtr SU - $1.88 - Ladbrokes
Money coming in for the Dogs so happy to jump on them for the first quarter. They’ve ranked 1st there in 2021 and now 2nd in 2022. With their start to the season, every game is now a must win for them to ensure they make the 8, this exemplifies the emphasis on a strong and motivated start to a game. Things are starting to go right for them on the field too, a massive win against the Eagles on the weekend, and have begun to regain some key personnel on the field with Stef Martin and Bailey Smith likely to rejoin the side this week. Probably not as much of a factor for Geelong, but definitely a bit of a motivational factor for Western Bullsogs are losing after the siren against Geelong last year.
2u - Soligo AGS - $2.25 - 365
Trying to find a bit of value in the Adelaide goal scorers. Has had 2.1 in the last two games and as a young player will be driven to make an impact on the scoreboard.
3u - Gold Coast -22.5 (Second Half) - $1.88 - Ladbrokes
Gold Coast should get the job done against North, Dew coaching for wins each week and the Suns have picked up some form. I was very surprised to see that North have faded out of games as heavily as they have. In 2022 the opposing team has cover this line in 9/11 games. Post game it was commented on how well the Suns played the conditions and how alike they are to the conditions they train in during preseason. This showed in the way they played and also ran over Hawthorn in the second half. They’ll be massively boosted by spending the whole week in the NT.
2.5u - Simpkin 25+ disposals - $2 - TAB
Been burnt by him a bit this season but finally got going on the weekend with 29 disposals, even had to work through a tag. Shouldn’t have to worry about a tag this week, but will be again getting the strong CBA numbers he’s had all season.
5u - Melbourne 1st Qtr, Melbourne 1st Half - $1.77 - Ladbrokes
Probably the worst time for Sydney to have to front up against Melbourne off the back of their first loss in a long time. Expecting Melbourne to come out all guns blazing and to make an example of Sydney. The quarter/half trends align nicely for this one too. Melbourne have won 10/11 first quarters this year and then gone on to win 9/11 first halves. Sydney on the flip side have only won 4/11 first quarters and 4/11 first halves
4u - Rich 25+ disposals - $2 - TAB
1u - Rich 30+ disposals - $4.75 - TAB
Took the unders on Rich for a very easy collect on the week, match up was an absolute shocker for him and he historically performs poorly vs the Giants. Flip over to this week and he gets one of the best match ups in the comp against Freo who like to park men behind the ball. Is still in ripping form when you consider he has gone 25+ in 5 of his last 7 games. Had 31 and 28 on Freo last year.
2.5u - Serong 25+ disposals - $1.85 - 365
Has been quietly going about his thing for 6/9 for 25+ on the season. Attention is on Brodie, Brayshaw and potentially now Fyfe this weekend which allows him to go about his thing.
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