AFL 2022 AFL Round 20

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Couple of early value TAB AGS bets based purely on their position:

Daniel Lloyd $2.40
Impey $2.10
McHenry $2.20
Spicer $3.25
 
Was keeping my eye on Petty from Melbourne for goals after Lyon suggested it’s time for him to swing forward this week. I think I missed his initial odds (was expecting $23 for 2 goals and $251 for 3) but I just took $15 for 2 and $101 for 3 in the chance that he actually ends up forward on Friday night
 

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Few early B365 odds that stuck out:

COLL/PA
Josh Daicos (scored in previous 5 games, goals in 3/5)
AGS $2.10
2+ $4.75
3+ $19

Kane Farrell (goals in 9/12, scoring shots in every game)
AGS $1.80
2+ $3.20

SYD/GWS
Dylan Stephens (goals in previous 3 games)
AGS $2.25

GEEL/WB
Tim English (goals in 7/11, multiple shots on goal in 6/11)
AGS $2.05
2+ $4.75

Josh Dunkley (goals in 9/18, shots on goal in 15/18)
AGS $2.10
2+ $5

Riley Garcia (multiple shots on goal and goals in previous 2)
AGS $2.55
2+ $10

RICH/BL
Hugh McCluggage (scoring shots in previous 7 games)
AGS $1.77

Oscar McInerney (scoring shots in previous 4, goals in previous 2)
AGS $2.10
2+ $5
 
SPP - 9 scoring shots in past 3 games (1.2, 0.3, 2.1)
Warner - 9 scoring shots in past 3 games (3.1, 2.2, 1.0)
Omeara - last 2 weeks 71% and 77% forward and been getting inside 50 more, couple of goals on weekend
Butler - should be a good booster, 1.26 after 5 goals
Honey - 91% forward time 1.1, will get chances
@15 NEDS BOOSTED
 
A Covid-19 outbreak is threatening to derail North Melbourne’s preparations for Sunday’s clash with Essendon at Marvel Stadium.

Caretaker coach Leigh Adams and four players, including young forward Paul Curtis and former Tiger Callum Coleman-Jones, returned positive results after returning to Melbourne from Hobart.

Adams is expected to be available to coach against the Bombers, while the playing quartet will be assessed late this week before a decision is made on their status.
 
Tim Kelly atg@$2.50 TAB
2+@$8.25 SB
3+@$34
4+@$181
5+@$1101

Simpson has stated he will be moving the magnets around for the remainder of the season and he has been true to his word as evidenced by numerous unorthodox positional changes he has made in the past weeks. Kelly played forward last week and despite looking like a fish out of water and only having 4 touches in 84% gametime, the move to put him back in the midfield was stubbornly resisted which leads me to believe he is a good chance to play forward again this week. Has been a noted goal kicker in the past from midfield, don’t see why he couldn’t snag a few if given supply
 
Tim Kelly atg@$2.50 TAB
2+@$8.25 SB
3+@$34
4+@$181
5+@$1101

Simpson has stated he will be moving the magnets around for the remainder of the season and he has been true to his word as evidenced by numerous unorthodox positional changes he has made in the past weeks. Kelly played forward last week and despite looking like a fish out of water and only having 4 touches in 84% gametime, the move to put him back in the midfield was stubbornly resisted which leads me to believe he is a good chance to play forward again this week. Has been a noted goal kicker in the past from midfield, don’t see why he couldn’t snag a few if given supply
Drunk whilst posting and also while watching that game. Apparently got tagged by Windhager but regardless definitely played more forward than usual. Perhaps the discrepancy between Windhager and Kelly disposals is in part due to Kelly being tagged while playing a graveyard forward flank role for large chunks while Windhager got fed a bit while running off from the correlating back half position. Regardless I still think the bet is value. Kelly will look to respond this week and the increased forward time should continue for factors including the cork he’s carrying, to break a cycle of being tagged and the magnet switching that’s happening at the Eagles.
 
Essendon coming up against norf at Marvel. Covid scares. Who knows who else they may lose. Mckay has been amazing and should take Peter Wright, they may even look to double him. Langford should be free to have a field day on the north defence hopefully. He's only played 5 games this year (6 if you count 4 mins in round 1 vs geelong before he injured himself). His first two games back he went 0.0 and 1.0. But since then the last 3 games he has gone 4.1, 0.3 and 2.1

On him for 3/4/5

3 @ 5.60 (NEDS)
4 @ 16 (NEDS)
5 @ 41 (SB)
 
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