balmainforever
Dibs
- Sep 4, 2003
- 25,858
- 30,777
- AFL Club
- Richmond
- Other Teams
- Balmain, GreenBay, Edmonton, Celtic
- Moderator
- #1,202
anybody who posts bets after the count is over on Sunday without putting them up first WILL BE CARDED
AFL 2022 Brownlow Medal
- Thread starter TheJanuaryMan
- Start date
- Tagged users None
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Less than two weeks out from the start of the season and it's that time of year again. Looking toward the 2022 Brownlow. As I say each year, do your own counts in real time and never forget, the real value is often not in the winner but in the team votes, H2H and the like. Team Votes give you 18 chances to win, for example.
My pre-season stable this year:
Lachie Neale: $10
Jack Steele: $12
Sam Walsh: $34 (I'm aware he will miss games early but if the leaders start slowly, this price won't last if he returns the same way he finished last year)
Andrew Brayshaw: $51
Matt Rowell: $67
Bailey Smith: $81
Tim Kelly: $81
Zac Butters: $151
Best of luck, all who play in 2022. As I asked last year, please strongly consider donating a % of any winnings to the magnificent people at Beyond Blue. Each day, we lose around 7 men to suicide. That is 7 too many. They need our support.
My pre-season stable this year:
Lachie Neale: $10
Jack Steele: $12
Sam Walsh: $34 (I'm aware he will miss games early but if the leaders start slowly, this price won't last if he returns the same way he finished last year)
Andrew Brayshaw: $51
Matt Rowell: $67
Bailey Smith: $81
Tim Kelly: $81
Zac Butters: $151
Best of luck, all who play in 2022. As I asked last year, please strongly consider donating a % of any winnings to the magnificent people at Beyond Blue. Each day, we lose around 7 men to suicide. That is 7 too many. They need our support.
Chucked a tenner on these three over the summer.
Andrew Brayshaw @ $101
Jacob Hopper @ $151
Isaac Heeney @ $251
Andrew Brayshaw @ $101
Jacob Hopper @ $151
Isaac Heeney @ $251
- Sep 21, 2004
- 39,840
- 30,040
- AFL Club
- West Coast
- Other Teams
- Norwood & Liverpool.
Paddy Cripps
I posted this elsewhere as a good back to lay opportunity, and even leave a few bucks on outright if he's going well.
Shai Bolton @ $200-1
Expected to make the jump into a really high quality mid.
Exact type that can attract votes, very noticable, flashy, highlight reel player and goal kicking mid/forward.
Richmond should be winning at least 10+ games.
With other midfielders in decline, he will be rotating with Dusty in the mid/forward role and really have the opportunity to stand out.
Would not surprise if he is our best player in 2022.
He will inevitably get a few dominant 20 disposal+ multiple goal games that will attract some BOGs, so his odds are almost certain to come in. He's also not a stat padder, high impact/disposal player.
Shai Bolton @ $200-1
Expected to make the jump into a really high quality mid.
Exact type that can attract votes, very noticable, flashy, highlight reel player and goal kicking mid/forward.
Richmond should be winning at least 10+ games.
With other midfielders in decline, he will be rotating with Dusty in the mid/forward role and really have the opportunity to stand out.
Would not surprise if he is our best player in 2022.
He will inevitably get a few dominant 20 disposal+ multiple goal games that will attract some BOGs, so his odds are almost certain to come in. He's also not a stat padder, high impact/disposal player.
Reckon he’s the biggest downhill skier in the game but each to their own.
- Mar 27, 2018
- 7,289
- 20,138
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
- Other Teams
- Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
Will do a check in at the half way mark of the year. If he's not significantly less than $200 I'll be extremely surprised.
- Oct 6, 2011
- 37,993
- 11,780
- AFL Club
- GWS
- Other Teams
- Patriots, Golden State, Wildcats
Petracca with the season he had last year and getting Norm Smith would have caught the umps attention .
But can’t be backing any player at less than double digits before a ball has been bounced.
PointsBet had top Brownlow votes by team
Brayshaw at $4 stands out for Freo.
Yeo has been crunched in from $17 to $6. That value is gone for me.
GWS and Roos votes looks pretty open to me.
But can’t be backing any player at less than double digits before a ball has been bounced.
PointsBet had top Brownlow votes by team
Brayshaw at $4 stands out for Freo.
Yeo has been crunched in from $17 to $6. That value is gone for me.
GWS and Roos votes looks pretty open to me.
- Feb 2, 2016
- 7,966
- 13,811
- AFL Club
- Richmond
I like dusty, he’s playing more of a pure mid role this year like he did in 2017. If Richmond get 10-14 wins he should poll in nearly all of them with no one to steal votes from him
iluvparis
Import Whisperer
- Apr 1, 2005
- 50,055
- 40,654
- AFL Club
- Carlton
- Other Teams
- Calgary Flames, Man Utd
Is he going to actually try in all of those 10-14 wins though?
botswana42
Debutant
- Apr 29, 2021
- 145
- 135
- AFL Club
- St Kilda
for those that did their own counts last year, what r^2 value did you get?
Had a throw at the stumps on Betfair with the aim of hedging out later in the year.
Bontempelli @ 10.50
Oliver @ 11.50
Petracca @ 12.50
Parish @ 16.50
Walsh @ 38
Miller @ 36
Hopper @ 80
T Kelly @ 80
Bolton @ 210
Bontempelli @ 10.50
Oliver @ 11.50
Petracca @ 12.50
Parish @ 16.50
Walsh @ 38
Miller @ 36
Hopper @ 80
T Kelly @ 80
Bolton @ 210
BigInsideMid
Debutant
- Mar 15, 2021
- 63
- 75
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
Looking forward to being part of the ride again. I'm really interested in Macrae and Miller this year, they both significantly under-polled in my count and many others last year.
Cripps polled 26 votes from 20 games in 2019 and that was probably the last time he was even remotely fit and healthy. He looks fit and healthy again. Big show if he can play out the season.
Steele will be thereabouts again but the fortunes of his team might make or break him.
Not much will change at Melbourne so Oliver and Petracca are big chances again.
Josh Dunkley as a speculative YOLO. Bont likely to spend more minutes forward without Bruce around, Dunkley out of contract so Bevo will keep him happy with all the midfield time that he wants. Wines winning last year shows that the umpires don't care about disposal efficiency if the bloke is getting 15 contested out of his 30 every week. Josh in his physical prime at 25 now.
Little nibble on Coniglio at $251. GWS still have that high upside so could be anything this year. Kelly too outside to poll, Coniglio capable of 35 disposal games at his best.
Steele will be thereabouts again but the fortunes of his team might make or break him.
Not much will change at Melbourne so Oliver and Petracca are big chances again.
Josh Dunkley as a speculative YOLO. Bont likely to spend more minutes forward without Bruce around, Dunkley out of contract so Bevo will keep him happy with all the midfield time that he wants. Wines winning last year shows that the umpires don't care about disposal efficiency if the bloke is getting 15 contested out of his 30 every week. Josh in his physical prime at 25 now.
Little nibble on Coniglio at $251. GWS still have that high upside so could be anything this year. Kelly too outside to poll, Coniglio capable of 35 disposal games at his best.
- Oct 6, 2011
- 37,993
- 11,780
- AFL Club
- GWS
- Other Teams
- Patriots, Golden State, Wildcats
Not sure if TopSport are taking the mickey out of this or are reading this thread but they have taken out all the single digit winners off their website for the Brownlow since I posted that.
Players not listed: Bont, Petracca, Oliver, Steele and Wines on their website.
Everyone else is available at double digits or more.
dustydontargue
Draftee
- Sep 18, 2020
- 8
- 3
- AFL Club
- Richmond
I had it as
3. Petracca (LOCK)
2. Langdon
1. Blanket across Macrae, Baz, Brown, Naughton, Oliver
Michael Scarn
Club Legend
3. Petracca
2. Langdon
1. BSmith
2. Langdon
1. BSmith
- Thread starter
- #25
If Gawn polls in this game, he may as well start writing his winner's speech.
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