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If that occurs it's because the IND will win 5-6 seats not because They all flow to Liberals.I think ALP will underperform expectations on here and end up in minority government. Haven't scientifically gone through seat-by-seat, more just the vibe.
Did the same thing happened to Stanley Melbourne Bruce when he lost his seat in the 1929 federal election- that is, he lost the seat but his party still won the election?There's a possibility of enough of a protest vote in Andrew's electorate that he loses his seat yet the government retains power. A protest vote not specifically against the party but the man. It's not out of the equation based on what I've heard.
From what I have heard there is a 0% chance of this happening.There's a possibility of enough of a protest vote in Andrew's electorate that he loses his seat yet the government retains power. A protest vote not specifically against the party but the man. It's not out of the equation based on what I've heard.
I agree. Probably listening to the wrong people TBH. Anyone watch the sky debate the other night?. Guy was just a walking contradiction and when questioned about what he was saying tried to deflect it without justifying his position. Tried to come across as dare I say it the " good guy". Complained about debt yet has committed to spend more than the government. Did nothing to convince people there was actually major problems in the state IMO.From what I have heard there is a 0% chance of this happening.
I think it's wishful thinking that has made this a focusThere's a possibility of enough of a protest vote in Andrew's electorate that he loses his seat yet the government retains power. A protest vote not specifically against the party but the man. It's not out of the equation based on what I've heard.
Copying from the main thread
Currently I'm going with, subject to change:
ALP: 54 (-2)
L/NP: 24 (-3)
GRN: 5 (+2)
IND: 5 (+3)
ALP Gain: Caulfield, *Bayswater, Glen Waverley
L/NP Gain: Nepean, Pakenham
GRN Gain: Richmond, Northcote
OTH Gain: Benambra, Kew, Hawthorn
(of the notional seats: Bass/Hastings 'retain' by Libs, Ripon/Morwell by ALP, Mildura by IND)
Off of ALP-L/NP-GRN-OTH votes of: 37-33-14-16 (for 2PP around 55-45.)
Lots of uncertainty though. Between 'OTH' preference flows, polling error, geographic distribution, pre-poll v on-the-day skew, nobody should be taking anything for granted until ABC call it, hopefully on Saturday.
My smoky to watch: Rowville. 5.5% LIB v ALP margin, but there's a strong independent (not really a teal) who would take off a large chunk of Liberal vote. So long as she finishes ahead of Labor, I think it falls.
The pre-election Newspoll for 2018 was out by 4%. The same polling error in the other direction is a hung parliament with a likely ALP - GRN majority.Newspoll tonight has ALP at 54.5
Time to edit your posts!
Guy net approval rating dropped to -25
It's a poll, and we all know what they've been like in recent years, but if that figure is even close to correct, Antony Green can phone it in.
True, true. That's why I qualified my post.The pre-election Newspoll for 2018 was out by 4%. The same polling error in the other direction is a hung parliament with a likely ALP - GRN majority.
Would Michael O'Brien have done any better if he was still leader of the Victorian Liberals and not Matthew Guy? If the Liberals are looking for someone to blame for losing tonight, Scott Morrison could be the first cab off the rank.True, true. That's why I qualified my post.
But any error of 2% or less is still dire for the Libs. And Guy.
Would be interesting to see an ALP/Green coalition if Greens have enough clout, can't see it myself though.