AFL 2023 - AFL Round 10 (Sir Doug Nicholls Round - part 1)

[balmainforever]

 

[balmainforever]

 

[fpm84]

I hope a few people jumped on the Richmond line and ML last week - I got them ML at $4.35 early in the week.

Geelong is fielding one of the most depleted teams in our recent history at the moment with eight premiership players missing on Friday plus our next in line depth (Bowes, Menegola, Neale etc) also sidelined.

Freo is starting to turn things around and a midfield without Dangerfield, Guthrie and Stanley v Serong, Brayshaw and Darcy spells absolute disaster.

Freo ML $2.70 (B365) and +13.5.

I suspect Freo will be favourites by the time the teams are announced, the bookies were really slow to realise last week that we would be so undermanned.

 

[based]

I hope a few people jumped on the Richmond line and ML last week - I got them ML at $4.35 early in the week.

Geelong is fielding one of the most depleted teams in our recent history at the moment with eight premiership players missing on Friday plus our next in line depth (Bowes, Menegola, Neale etc) also sidelined.

Freo is starting to turn things around and a midfield without Dangerfield, Guthrie and Stanley v Serong, Brayshaw and Darcy spells absolute disaster.

Freo ML $2.70 (B365) and +13.5.

I suspect Freo will be favourites by the time the teams are announced, the bookies were really slow to realise last week that we would be so undermanned.

 

[ferrisb]

I rarely bet on the round super early, but I had a nibble on Sat night on SYD/GC/COLL lines in a multi. Surprised to see the lines move so much already.

From Sat night to now:

Syd -20.5 out to -37.5
GC +31.5 into +24.5
Coll -15.5 out to -17.5

Happy to pocket some 'free' points in my favour.

 

[X_box_X]

Bulldogs starting to steam.

-5.5 to -8.5.

I'm not sure what it settles at. The current line seems about right IMO.

 

[FrankGrimes]

I hope a few people jumped on the Richmond line and ML last week - I got them ML at $4.35 early in the week.

Geelong is fielding one of the most depleted teams in our recent history at the moment with eight premiership players missing on Friday plus our next in line depth (Bowes, Menegola, Neale etc) also sidelined.

Freo is starting to turn things around and a midfield without Dangerfield, Guthrie and Stanley v Serong, Brayshaw and Darcy spells absolute disaster.

Freo ML $2.70 (B365) and +13.5.

I suspect Freo will be favourites by the time the teams are announced, the bookies were really slow to realise last week that we would be so undermanned.

no chance in the world Freo start favorites..

 

[ferrisb]

I think Collingwood absolutely thump Carlton.

They will rip us apart with their ball movement speed. Equally, their pressure should see our slow ball movement fall apart.

Keeping a close eye on Curnow / McKay odds when they drop. Even though neither will be paying big odds for 4+ or 5+, I am going to multi it into a Collingwood win; not sure if H2H, at the line or maybe even 30+.

You get an awesome odds boost when you combine a goal train with the other team winning. I know usually a goalkicker getting 4+, 5+ or 6+ means his team usually wins, but I can see one of Curnow/McKay getting kicking a bag and we still lose.

Moore has traditionally played very loose on McKay. I like Murphy as his sidekick, but can see a way where one of McKay or Curnow kicks 4+ but Moore intercepts everything and sets up a Collingwood win.

Note: McKay has gone 2.3 (L), 4.0 (W), 4.0 (L) last three matches v Coll.
Curnow has gone 4.2 and 2.5 against Coll (both losses) since returning from injury.

 

[bulletride]

Taking Samson Ryan against our makeshift backline with Nank potentially back in to free him up from ruck duty.

3+ $7
4+ $19
5+ $51
TAB (might be able to juice it a bit more with the SGM trick, doesn't seem to be up yet)

 

[LicoriceAllsorts]

 

[Long Shot Louie]

Kamdyn Mcintosh

33

Kamdyn Mcintosh

Age

30

Ht

191cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.8

4star

K

9.9

4star

HB

4.9

4star

M

3.7

4star

T

2.6

4star

CL

0.8

3star

D

13.8

3star

K

8.4

3star

HB

5.4

3star

M

2.8

3star

T

2.2

3star

CL

1.0

3star

D

18.6

5star

K

12.6

5star

HB

6.0

4star

M

5.8

5star

T

2.4

4star

CL

1.4

4star

atg@$5 B365
2+@$41

Sitting on the wing during last weeks Tigs game, I noted in my degen notebook that Kamdyn was pushing forward hard throughout the game, playing as a true wingman. Ball didn’t quite bounce his way but the intent was there.

I like these odds with him priced as a fullback who never kicks goals when he is in fact a winger who occasionally kicks goals. Hasn’t hit the goals this year but kicked 9 from 21 last year including a bag of 3 and 2x2.

 

[BloodRet]

Logan out for 8 weeks. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Heeney playing out of the goal square, showed some slight signs to gain his confidence back in front of the sticks with two nice goals on the weekend. In particular in the 4th quarter I noticed he was camping deep forward. I’m gonna let him off my blacklist for this one.

4-6 @10, 29, 126 sb. Pretty insane odds against Norf imo.

 

[BloodRet]

Also buddy’s odds on ladbrokes are pretty cracked while Logan is still named

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Larkey might be the play

Kicked 7.0 against them last time at the same venue

 

[fpm84]

SB not doing the Friday free hit again, or do they go live later in the week?

 

[gillon]

Rankine has gone 2+ in his last 12/19. He is 2.20 for 2 on 365 which I’ll take.

I chose his last 19 because it fits my narrative the best

 

[the_big_sav]

buddy has kicked 7 goals in 7 games with 3 0s.

has 6+ written all over it

 

[Stars align]

Don’t punt as a rule found out the hard way there is no such thing as a sure thing… anyhow couldn’t pass up the $67 for the tiges to win it all before the cats game now into $26…. For the history buffs the tiges were $67 pre season 2017

 

[ferrisb]

Wouldn’t be surprised to see Heeney playing out of the goal square, showed some slight signs to gain his confidence back in front of the sticks with two nice goals on the weekend

4-6 @10, 29, 126 sb. Pretty insane odds against Norf imo.

Heeney now suspended on SB.

Good grief, how many degens did you convince?

 

[ferrisb]

You know you are a degen when...

... You see that headline and you instinctively think of backing a defender for kicking goals...

 

[GROTTO]

You know you are a degen when...
View attachment 1688713
... You see that headline and you instinctively think of backing a defender for kicking goals...

That got me a bit turned on and its only 5am.

 

[Hava Alle]

SB not doing the Friday free hit again, or do they go live later in the week?

Late Tuesday early Wednesday they come up. Think it will be an all year thing. Unless they revert back to 3+ legs 1 leg fail deal on all games. Sportsbet for Thurs and Friday games, TAB for the rest is the way to go.

 

[demon_fanatic]

lets calm down on the richmond being back and winning it thing.. they will struggle to even make finals with the form Adelaide is in (competitive vs geelong full strength in geelong, should of beat pies, smashed saints) dogs also surging who i'd have ahead of richmond in chances of making it, teams have to come out for the tigers to make it..

 

[Suncraze]

5u WCE +25.5 $1.90
1u WCE ML $3.80
Both Lads

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Breust had 6 against WCE last time at the same venue.

Like him for 4,5,6 with Lewis there and Breust feeding on the crumbs.

@ 7, 20, 56 Lads

Larkey 6 into Breust 6 @ 1581 Lads
$5 bet easiest $8K you’ll ever make

 

[gillon]

Loading up on Hobbs 20+ @ 2.50 on lads. Setter field is now out in addition to Parish. Can’t see how he doesn’t get in the midfield rotation. Had 22 last week without attending a single centre bounce

1.90ish basically everywhere else