Preview 2023 National Draft Preview Thread [currently: #2, #14 (PA), #19 (PP) #40, #52, #60]

[pushintheback]

West Coast probably wouldn’t be able to get Daniel Curtin with Melbourne’s picks.

As it stands correct. But as we have seen in the past there are very creative ways for clubs to get the picks they want if they want the player bad enough.
GC will trade out for additional points.
GWS have some nice picks that they maybe willing to trade for (Not the #1 pick tho, they wouldn't use it on Reid now that he says he wants to stay home)
WB have 2 picks in the teens, will they trade back for Croft? Or will they package their picks to climb in Rnd 1. Who knows!?
Melbourne has history of packaging picks to get the player they want. Look at last year with Bailey Humphrey. They tried very hard to get him.
There is a stat that i cant find but someone on here will know it and it basically shows a trend of having so many first rnd draft picks in the selected 23 has a high probability of winning premierships. I'm sure I haven't explained this properly but someone will know what I'm talking about. (my disorder to having to know this stat now will probably see me look for this all day today-sorry boss no work today )

 

[shinboner magic]

checkmate dawks / weagles - clarko is a master

 

[JGreezy]

As it stands correct. But as we have seen in the past there are very creative ways for clubs to get the picks they want if they want the player bad enough.
GC will trade out for additional points.
GWS have some nice picks that they maybe willing to trade for (Not the #1 pick tho, they wouldn't use it on Reid now that he says he wants to stay home)
WB have 2 picks in the teens, will they trade back for Croft? Or will they package their picks to climb in Rnd 1. Who knows!?
Melbourne has history of packaging picks to get the player they want. Look at last year with Bailey Humphrey. They tried very hard to get him.
There is a stat that i cant find but someone on here will know it and it basically shows a trend of having so many first rnd draft picks in the selected 23 has a high probability of winning premierships. I'm sure I haven't explained this properly but someone will know what I'm talking about. (my disorder to having to know this stat now will probably see me look for this all day today-sorry boss no work today )

If North is at pick 2 and say that they will take Curtain then North would be the only trade back partner to get him.

 

[pushintheback]

If North is at pick 2 and say that they will take Curtain then North would be the only trade back partner to get him.

No I think if WCE have pick 1 they will trade it for multiple first rnd picks. So whoever trades the picks with WCE will get WCE #1 pick, not North.

 

[JGreezy]

No I think if WCE have pick 1 they will trade it for multiple first rnd picks. So whoever trades the picks with WCE will get WCE #1 pick, not North.

Yes, but we are talking about WCE trading back for Curtain.

If WCE want Curtain and North are taking him at pick 2 then WC have two options. Take him with pick 1 or trade with North.

 

[pushintheback]

Yes, but we are talking about WCE trading back for Curtain.

If WCE want Curtain and North are taking him at pick 2 then WC have two options. Take him with pick 1 or trade with North.

None of us know where Curtin will land but IMO at pick 2 & 3 both Curtin and Watson will be available. Then we have the next group of 3 or 4 that are just as good so I don't think WCE will take anything just to get pick 2.

 

[JGreezy]

None of us know where Curtin will land but IMO at pick 2 & 3 both Curtin and Watson will be available. Then we have the next group of 3 or 4 that are just as good so I don't think WCE will take anything just to get pick 2.

There's a lot of unknowns. Curtin might be in discussions with Reid at pick 1 by the end of the year.

On what we know now, if the order was WC, Nth, Haw then I would be sending the message that we want Curtin and that we rank him only slightly behind Reid.

If something crazy happens and North have picks 2 & 3 then it is Watson + Curtin, with a bid on Walter at pick 3. On what people think now, WC would have to trade out of the top tier of the draft to trade with anyone but North.

 

[Harris 10]

I honestly can't see us not being given a priority pick immediately following our first pick, so that will be either 2,3 or 4.

 

[My Left Foote]

I honestly can't see us not being given a priority pick immediately following our first pick, so that will be either 2,3 or 4.

It will be the Clarko compensation a "please don't sue us for the mishandling of the Hawthorn racism saga" we'll give you a priority pick and a first round compo for McKay leaving and we walk into the draft with 1, 2 & 3.

 

[R00StaR]

I think we'd be crazy to trade out that many first round picks for a single player, even a possible generational talent, when we have list holes all over the place.

I also have doubts whether the AFL would let us trade a PP as part of a suite of picks for pick 1.

But could we do Pick 2 and 19 for pick 1 and a player. Cant see wanting to drop back much and miss Curtin.

 

[R00StaR]

If we come second last, yes. Even third last probably, but costs more.

Fair chance we finish last tbh, our list is decimated now.

 

[JGreezy]

Fair chance we finish last tbh, our list is decimated now.

I really didn't want to finish last again. But if LDU's injury drags on and with the Clarko issues it might not be as embarrassing. And we get Reid for it.

And if we get a priority or compo pick to get Watson or Curtin then we are really set up for a rebuild.

 

[Harris 10]

It will be the Clarko compensation a little "please don't sue us for the mishandling of the Hawthorn racism saga" we'll give you a priority pick and a first round compo for McKay leaving and we walk into the draft with 1, 2 & 3.

I agree, we’ll get first round compo for Mckay as well.

 

[osaka mick]

I’m hoping McKay stays, and we get the compo pick, so end up with 1 and 2, or at the very least 1 and 10. (Or 2/3-2/10, 3/4, 3/10)


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Lomas]

Fair chance we finish last tbh, our list is decimated now.

But I don’t wanna!

 

[pushintheback]

I agree, we’ll get first round compo for Mckay as well.

You’re not serious for a first rnd pick. Realistically what do you think a McKay compo pick is worth? 2nd at best.

 

[Passmore]

You’re not serious for a first rnd pick. Realistically what do you think a McKay compo pick is worth? 2nd at best.

Depends what he gets paid wherever he goes.

Sent from my SM-A908B using Tapatalk

 

[Harris 10]

You’re not serious for a first rnd pick. Realistically what do you think a McKay compo pick is worth? 2nd at best.

It doesn’t matter what I think he’s worth.

Like the Daniher compo both clubs will work with the AFL to make it happen.

 

[hoffseason gains]

You’re not serious for a first rnd pick. Realistically what do you think a McKay compo pick is worth? 2nd at best.

Depends how he plays in the second half of the season - if he plays like he can - he will go for 700+ in this market - if he plays like he has this year for every game except the St Kilda one then he will be more 500-600. He’s not worth pick 2 (if we finish last) but James Frawley’s compensation gave Melbourne pick 3 and he wasn’t worth that. Feels like to us - a pick in the early 20s would be unders and we’d at least explore matching the offer to force a trade.

 

[giantroo]

Depends how he plays in the second half of the season - if he plays like he can - he will go for 700+ in this market - if he plays like he has this year for every game except the St Kilda one then he will be more 500-600. He’s not worth pick 2 (if we finish last) but James Frawley’s compensation gave Melbourne pick 3 and he wasn’t worth that. Feels like to us - a pick in the early 20s would be unders and we’d at least explore matching the offer to force a trade.

The reported $ for James Frawley was 800k hence that compo pick. The Hawks and Blues were the two clubs chasing his services.

 

[Merlin007]

You’re not serious for a first rnd pick. Realistically what do you think a McKay compo pick is worth? 2nd at best.

It doesn't matter what we think, the market will determine the compensation - a lesson you should have learnt with Brad Crouch, and we learnt with Ben Brown.

 

[Bugz]

It doesn't matter what we think, the market will determine the compensation - a lesson you should have learnt with Brad Crouch, and we learnt with Ben Brown.

Disagree, the market will guide it, but the AFL will decide the outcome that best suits them. They will give you band 1 compo in lieu of a Priority Pick, IMO.

 

[Merlin007]

Disagree, the market will guide it, but the AFL will decide the outcome that best suits them. They will give you band 1 compo in lieu of a Priority Pick, IMO.

Could be; I'm not one of the North people thinking we'll be getting a PP (at least not this season)

 

[pushintheback]

Depends how he plays in the second half of the season - if he plays like he can - he will go for 700+ in this market - if he plays like he has this year for every game except the St Kilda one then he will be more 500-600. He’s not worth pick 2 (if we finish last) but James Frawley’s compensation gave Melbourne pick 3 and he wasn’t worth that. Feels like to us - a pick in the early 20s would be unders and we’d at least explore matching the offer to force a trade.

Incredible that is the kind of money being suggested. If that’s what he gets then I agree he’s probably a first round. I retract my previous comment based on that coin.

 

[hoffseason gains]

Incredible that is the kind of money being suggested. If that’s what he gets then I agree he’s probably a first round. I retract my previous comment based on that coin.

Yeah based on last season, he gets that type of money easily - averaged most intercepts in the league and was still pretty solid defensively doing some great jobs for us. He’s no Steven May but he’d be in the top half of key defenders when fit.

Jon Ralph suggested some clubs were looking at offering him 800-900+ IIRC. He’s not worth that - but to a key position needy team and being the best available on the market - it’s a possibility.

He’s come back in pretty shocking form this year - hasnt meshed with Logue just yet and seems to lack effort or intensity a lot of the time. And reports came out about interest cooling, which is disappointing really, because I fear he’s made the decision to leave already and him checking out already has cost us a bit in compo and him a few 100k.