Ultimate Glory 2023 Trade speculation and Shinbeggars discussion

[Billyc]

You’re comparing driving a hard bargain at the trade table to redrafting a player who doesn’t want to be at the club any more. Slightly different circumstances.

Not really. Geelong routinely force players to stay who don't want to be there if they don't get a deal they want. Doesn't stop an annual conga line of players joining them. It's just not a relevant consideration for players.

I agree with you that there is no point getting nothing for a player though

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Not really. Geelong routinely force players to stay who don't want to be there if they don't get a deal they want. Doesn't stop an annual conga line of players joining them. It's just not a relevant consideration for players.

I agree with you that there is no point getting nothing for a player though

They force players to see out contracts - multiple clubs do that. Again, they’ve never redrafted a player who wanted to go elsewhere via the PSD. That’s significant departure from making a player see out a contract.

 

[Lickmesocks]

If the rumours of Smith being remotely gettable this year, Bevo will want pick 3. He is on borrowed time and will need to be seen to be upgrading the list now not in the future.

 

[Franko Armani]

First to admit that I'm not sure I've ever seen him play, but his stats are pretty bad.

Where would we play him & how could we make him good?

I think we’d play him wing/hff as we have enough HBF on the list. Dangerous in the forward line, could improve to the point where he could chop out in the midfield.

First to admit that I'm not sure I've ever seen him play, but his stats are pretty bad.

Where would we play him & how could we make him good?

May end up at the Hawks this year.

 

[theiaofseed]

I turned on trade radio for 15 minutes and hear them talking about how Worpel fell out of favour late this year and isn't worth a first round pick, thats why you don't listen to that crap.

 

[Franko Armani]

Is Bailey Smith

6

Bailey Smith

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

a quality player - yes.

Is he a top liner - no, has too many flaws and is selfish.

Would he improve our 22 - yes.

Do I want to pay what he would cost right now - no.

Is there a more urgent need to address/sure up our KPP stocks with the type of pick Smith would cost - Yes.

 

[Hawthorn2023]

Nobody has convinced me yet how taking nothing is better than taking a 3rd round pick - particularly in a year where we’ll need points for McCabe. The PSD threat is a temper tantrum - I’m confident our club won’t go there.

Kosi & Brockman should cover points for McCabe

 

[WatWouldCyrilDo]

They need points this year for their 3 top 15 selections, you could offer them pick 1 next year it doesnt suit their needs.

Picks 28,34,42,47 and 56 is only enough to match a bid for walter

GCS currently have 4335 points. If they trade us 4 and we give back 30 (+F1), they will have 2930 points.

Per Twomey's most recent phantom, if bids come for Walter at 2 (2517), Reid at 9 (1469) and Rogers at 12 (1268) they will need 4203 points after the 20% discount. So they need an extra 1270 points. If they trade Chol and Hollands, lets say for picks around 35 / 36, that's an extra 1000 points.

So they would only need to find 270 points, or another mid 50s pick, to match all their academy kids.

 

[HairyO]

You seem to have missed what the Suns are trying to do.

They have three Academy kids that they need to have Picks for in the top 12-15 players.

There’s a reason that everyone is saying the Dogs are leading the charge for Pick 4 and it’s because they hold two firsts that the Suns could land and then split for points at any point.

Yep. The Suns will for sure get the picks they are after for this year. But there are 2 more academy kids likely next year arent there ?

 

[2OLD 2SLOW]

Just got to remember the cost.

The same nagging thought stops me jumping on the Bailey Smith train. But I'm very tempted.

He really does have the potential to be a proper gun. He is fast, aggressive, can kick goals and tackle (I watched one game this year where Bevo actually played him inside at Marvel, possibly in the absence of Libba, and he tackled like a brute ... to the point where he risked suspension. He has the pace and power to be a great tackler, just doesn't do it enough). And in 2021/22 he was an incredible gut-runner, and was given crazy high time on ground in multiple games due to this attribute - from rounds 3-10 in 2022, he had the following %TOG: 97,95,94,92,92,97,92,91. My memory is that he was best as a pure wingman, dominating through athleticism and work-rate.

BUT, he's had an ordinary year or 2.

I have generally put that down to being Bevo'd - played out of position by a coach who does nothing to help a player back into form. My observation is that Smith is a very poor starting forward (compared to Dylan Moore for example, he is clueless). I also don't think he's a particularly smart, natural player - one who just knows what to do wherever he is on the field. But he can be a great wingman with stints in the middle ... which would suit us very well.

I checked DFS for any insight, and the most interesting thing was that this season, he has started on the interchange bench 11 times! And started in the midfield just 4 times. So he really has been out of favour with Bevo.

So back to the cost ...

If it's just Bevo being Bevo, I'd be ok with paying up ... maybe a future first. But if its lifestyle related (ie he hasn't been fit enough, professional enough to deserve a starting place in the Bulldogs team) then its a pass, surely.

 

[TheHawkSource]

BigFooty the only place you can come to in which a player like Bailey Smith

6

Bailey Smith

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

can be called an average footballer... Lordy the people in here. Recency bias is hilarious.

 

[BIGHAWK23]

BigFooty the only place you can come to in which a player like Bailey Smith can be called an average footballer... Lordy the people in here. Recency bias is hilarious.

Got anything for us?

 

[triple treat]

It’s not.

They’ll get two first from the Dogs and then be able to do whatever they want with them.

So why can’t we offer pick 3 for the same deal, and tell Dogs that we will take Watson if they don’t do that deal ( apparently that’s who they want) then on trade 17 28 and future 1st for GC 4?

 

[user33]

Dogs may need our F1 to get their hands on Suns pick 4 this year. Worth noting

 

[Guardian Hawk]

Two years ago Smith was tracking the same if not better than Walsh, Butters and Rozee. His 2021 finals series was amazing. He’s had two down years since so he’s not at their level now. But he’s not lacking in similar ability. I’d trade our F1 and something extra (not pick 3) for him. He’s a very good player with ability to be a superstar if he puts it back together

Yes we are midfield heavy but no side without an excellent midfield can compete. It is by far the most important part of the ground and Smith is different to any of our current mids.

He hasn't had 2 down years (unless everyone massively overreacted to his 2021 finals series and expected too much). His season last year was better than his 2021 season on the whole.

In 2022 he averaged 29 disposals (23 in '21) and upped his tackles, contested possessions and clearances, whilst more than doubling his assist numbers. He had multiple dominant games of over 40 touches and got 10 Brownlow votes and 43 Coaches votes as a 21 year old.

It's really only this season that was a step back and it's hard to say how much was on Bailey and how much is attributable to how Bevo used him - much in the same way that Dunkley, Macrae and others have been used in a non-ideal way given their midfield options. I would guess that it's likely a bit of both.

 

[HairyO]

BigFooty the only place you can come to in which a player like Bailey Smith can be called an average footballer... Lordy the people in here. Recency bias is hilarious.

If its pick 3, do we need Smith more than we need Duursma ?

 

[WWSD]

If we wait another 12 months to try and get Smith, then we might end up missing out on getting him altogether. Trade future first and future second if that’s what it takes to get a deal done. We don’t exactly have a lot competition for spots on the wing position right now, Smith would be the icing on the cake.

 

[SodaPop]

Someone did the sums, but if the Suns traded us pick 4 for F1 + 30, they would need something like ~800 points in order to match their 3 academy kids based on where Twomey expects them to fall. That is the equivalent of bringing in picks 38 and 39 - which could easily be done by trading Chol and Hollands.

Getting a future early selection instead of additional points this year would be much more attractive.

Spot on WWCD.

People forget they'll get the points with trading out some of their existing players this year.
GC are stacked with talent, they don't want 2 x average kids at picks 10 & 17 (pushed out to 13 and 20). They'd rather a top 3 quality pick next year to add to their talented list.

 

[user33]

If its pick 3, do we need Smith more than we need Duursma ?

The answer is no but we won’t be trading our first this year for Smith, that would be madness with us likely getting one of Duursma, Watson, Curtin or Colby.

 

[Platten44]

Dogs may need our F1 to get their hands on Suns pick 4 this year. Worth noting

Why? 10,17 and their future first gets it done.

 

[Braidz]

Why? 10,17 and their future first gets it done.

That’s a lot of capital for pick 4. Especially when there future pick will be a top 6 draft pick

 

[lethalselbow]

If we can get GCS pick 4 using our F1 then trade that for Smith, while keeping 3, I'm all for it.

Urk. If we get picks 3 & 4 we surely use them in this draft. There's gold in those early picks, i tells ya. GOLD!

Smith is a cherry on top player.

 

[triple treat]

Why? 10,17 and their future first gets it done.

Gets it done for pick 3 as well, which is a better pick

 

[Franko Armani]

Urk. If we get picks 3 & 4 we surely use them in this draft. There's gold in those early picks, i tells ya. GOLD!

Smith is a cherry on top player.

This.

 

[Scrads]

GCS currently have 4335 points. If they trade us 4 and we give back 30 (+F1), they will have 2930 points.

Per Twomey's most recent phantom, if bids come for Walter at 2 (2517), Reid at 9 (1469) and Rogers at 12 (1268) they will need 4203 points after the 20% discount. So they need an extra 1270 points. If they trade Chol and Hollands, lets say for picks around 35 / 36, that's an extra 1000 points.

So they would only need to find 270 points, or another mid 50s pick, to match all their academy kids.

And they might not even have to find that many extra points because after they match each bid, the later picks will come in by a few spots each time. Regardless, the worst case scenario for them is they'd need to trade a F3 for another 3rd rounder this year. And they may as well do that with our F1 in hand next year hoping that we finish last but expecting us to likely be bottom 4 at least.