Ultimate Glory 2023 Trade speculation and Shinbeggars discussion

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Not hit and miss.

7 of the 10 are bonafide stars who our club would love on our list and dare I say would have had no hesitation using our 2024 F1 to obtain.

1 of the 10 is a lemon. Injuries and confidence plagued another. And the jury is out on Phillips.

I'd take the gamble and use pick 3 in the draft. Having said that i'd trade our F1 for him a heart beat.
Of those 7 which ones would you take over Bailey Smith, maybe only a couple. Which is my point.

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If I was Melbourne I would come to us with pick 5 to try to get Lewis seeing we are chasing high picks we wouldn’t do it but it’s what they need and may win them a few flags then trying to get Lynch.

They'd need to be offering 2 X top 5 picks to get sleepy Mark to just open his eyes.
 
Not hit and miss.

7 of the 10 are bonafide stars who our club would love on our list and dare I say would have had no hesitation using our 2024 F1 to obtain.

1 of the 10 is a lemon. Injuries and confidence plagued another. And the jury is out on Phillips.

I'd take the gamble and use pick 3 in the draft. Having said that i'd trade our F1 for him a heart beat.

Since we are likely now Pick #4 after the Ben McKay compo, is there any analysis on Pick #4?
 
Of those 7 which ones would you take over Bailey Smith, maybe only a couple. Which is my point.

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Definitely...

Sheezel
Mills
Brayshaw (concussion aside)
Jackson

Would consider...
Callaghan
Clugger

Given a choice of McKercher, Watson and Duursma, I'd keep the pick and trade next year's 1st
 
Said a while back the dogs are repeating the Dunkley scenario with smith (bevo driving the lambo off a cliff)

His manager is playing this very well, if he goes next year the likely scenario is dogs end up with a late first round pick and another year of media circus for one of the most note worthy players who should be one of their best - that extra attention won’t help anyone.

But bevo seems steadfast in slowly destroying their culture and simmering his Napoli sauce.

I assume our future first is on the table and that would give the dogs plenty of buying power, they seem to be driving this behind closed doors with smiths management doing basically a carbon copy of Dunkley with less noise.
 
Hardwick was a big fan of Chol and wanted him to hang around until Riewoldt retired. Hardwick now holds a grudge that Chol walked out on Richmond.
Wasn't that because Chol didn't like how they dealt with the incident where Vlaustin grabbed his genitals while while they were singing club song after a win.

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Stopped listening yesterday when they couldn’t remember Massimo D’ambrosio’s name. They were trying to think about who nominated us for about 45 seconds and totally forgot.

Not well researched and just regurgitating what’s already been reported. Tom has good contacts but Sam is shocking. I’ll give trade radio a miss this year.
And your sanity will be all the better for it.
 
Now the worlds worst secret Norf getting pick 3 compo is out, why aren’t they going for suns pick?
With 2/3 they tell suns we won’t bid if you give us 5. Offer 14/19 and the 2 future picks 19/20 which are worth about pick 6. Suns then can use these and their f2 to trade up for ports first or next year with crows or lions who have top 5 FS, trade back in after bids this year etc.
 

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Now the worlds worst secret Norf getting pick 3 compo is out, why aren’t they going for suns pick?
With 2/3 they tell suns we won’t bid if you give us 5. Offer 14/19 and the 2 future picks 19/20 which are worth about pick 6. Suns then can use these and their f2 to trade up for ports first or next year with crows or lions who have top 5 FS, trade back in after bids this year etc.
We'd definitely bid though
 
Not hit and miss.

7 of the 10 are bonafide stars who our club would love on our list and dare I say would have had no hesitation using our 2024 F1 to obtain.

1 of the 10 is a lemon. Injuries and confidence plagued another. And the jury is out on Phillips.

I'd take the gamble and use pick 3 in the draft. Having said that i'd trade our F1 for him a heart beat.

I think he may have meant hit and miss in comparison to whether they were better than Bailey Smith or not.

I would definately select Bailey Smith before Billings, Melbourne Brayshaw, Dow and Phillips.

Mills is better now but wasn't at the same age. Too early to tell with Callaghan.

Rankine and Jackson are too different to compare but their output to date is similar.

I don't think you could catergorically say any of them will definately have a better career than Smith.

and even then we will have pick 5, rather than 3. The last 10 pick 5's for comparison are:

James Tsatas, Mac Andrew, Braeden Campbell, Dylan Stephens, Connor Rozee, Adam Cerra, Will Setterfield, Darcy Parish, Jordan deGoey, Kade Kolojashnij.

I think Bailey Smith will prove to be comfortably better than 6 of those names. I would also choose him at the same age over Darcy Parish (who took ages to become decent) and deGoey (who was wildly inconsistent until now in his late 20's). Cerra and Rozee are the guys I'd prefer and only Rozee is clearly better to me (who incidentally was taken 2 places higher than Smith in the "super-draft").

Not saying I'd trade pick 5 for Smith but the chances of a better player are not actually super high and Smith offers a known commodity rather than a gamble on potential.

Also still a bit confused at the "no way" to this years f1 but the "in a heartbeat" to next years - when there is every chance both picks will be around pick 5.

It's probably all a moot point anyway as the chances that he wants to leave and wishes to come to Hawthorn would be relatively slim.
 
I feel sorry for people who don’t think he’s elite. I’m not sure there is help for you.
A star-studded performance in the midfield for Bazlenka against the Hawks. 100% mid time with Liberatore concussed and Macrae playing forward. What a star!
 

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A star-studded performance in the midfield for Bazlenka against the Hawks. 100% mid time with Liberatore concussed and Macrae playing forward. What a star!
Newsflash: Player has average game.

You're painting yourself into a corner.
 
Not saying I'd trade pick 5 for Smith but the chances of a better player are not actually super high and Smith offers a known commodity rather than a gamble on potential.
Whether people would select Smith over historical draft pick 5s is inconsequential.

We’re solely looking at the here and now.

Would our targetted 2023 pick 5 make us a better team overall? Our forward line is one of the weakest around. Would a potential gun forward be a better strategic pick than another gun midfielder – an area of relative strength. Would Smith bring an off-field risk? Does he fit the culture? What’s the blend of other players we’re bringing in? And so on.

You could guarantee MM isn’t sweating over formulae calculating probability of any given draft pick 5 being specific margins better than a player we’d like to trade in. That’s for the BigFooty couch jockeys only.
 
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