Ultimate Glory 2023 Trade speculation and Shinbeggars discussion

[WatWouldCyrilDo]

Urk. If we get picks 3 & 4 we surely use them in this draft. There's gold in those early picks, i tells ya. GOLD!

Smith is a cherry on top player.

Pick 4 could be a good player, maybe even someone as good as Bailey Smith!

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Gets it done for pick 3 as well, which is a better pick

Which we don’t have a need to give up.

We don’t have academy kids to match bids on.

 

[Hawthorn2023]

Let's say Hawks can work out a way to get Pick 39 (446 pts) from WCE for Brockman


Hawks and Richmond swap picks and player

Richmond pick 26 (729 pts) & pick 45 (347 pts) = 1076 pts
Hawks swap picks 30 (629 pts) & 49 (287 pts) = 916 pts + Kosi


Hawks offer Gold Coast 2023 picks 26, 39 & 45 = 1522 pts + Hawks 2024 f2 (bottom 4 finish = min 800pts)

GC trade pick 4 to Hawks.

Hawks keep or trade pick 4 to Doggies for picks 10, 17 & ????

 

[Topiary]

The same nagging thought stops me jumping on the Bailey Smith train. But I'm very tempted.

He really does have the potential to be a proper gun. He is fast, aggressive, can kick goals and tackle (I watched one game this year where Bevo actually played him inside at Marvel, possibly in the absence of Libba, and he tackled like a brute ... to the point where he risked suspension. He has the pace and power to be a great tackler, just doesn't do it enough). And in 2021/22 he was an incredible gut-runner, and was given crazy high time on ground in multiple games due to this attribute - from rounds 3-10 in 2022, he had the following %TOG: 97,95,94,92,92,97,92,91. My memory is that he was best as a pure wingman, dominating through athleticism and work-rate.

BUT, he's had an ordinary year or 2.

I have generally put that down to being Bevo'd - played out of position by a coach who does nothing to help a player back into form. My observation is that Smith is a very poor starting forward (compared to Dylan Moore for example, he is clueless). I also don't think he's a particularly smart, natural player - one who just knows what to do wherever he is on the field. But he can be a great wingman with stints in the middle ... which would suit us very well.

I checked DFS for any insight, and the most interesting thing was that this season, he has started on the interchange bench 11 times! And started in the midfield just 4 times. So he really has been out of favour with Bevo.

So back to the cost ...

If it's just Bevo being Bevo, I'd be ok with paying up ... maybe a future first. But if its lifestyle related (ie he hasn't been fit enough, professional enough to deserve a starting place in the Bulldogs team) then its a pass, surely.

If it’s only future 1st I am all in.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

 

[MC_9]

Pick 4 could be a good player, maybe even someone as good as Bailey Smith!

Crazy isn't it. Let's not use our top pick in the hope we could pick up someone who might be as good as Bailey Smith who is only 22.

Pick no 3 over the last 10 years.

22 - Sheezel
21 - Callaghan
20 - Phillips
19 - Jackson
18 - Rankine
17 - Dow
16 - McCluggage
15 - Mills
14 - Brayshaw
13 - Billings

Even though it is a top 3 pick it is still hit or miss.

On Pixel 5 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Guardian Hawk]

If it’s only future 1st I am all in.

I'm seeing this a lot - our first pick this year is a "hell no" but or F1 is "absolutely, all in" and I don't completely understand. Don't they have pretty comparable value? Why say "only" future 1st? Are Hawthorn fans expecting us to be top 6 next year such that the value is much less?

I think it's pretty reasonable to assume it will be a top 6 or 7 pick next year (compared to pick 4 this year). Therefore, I'm not sure why there is such diametrically opposed views on the current 1st compared to the future 1st?

 

[OnWardnUpWard]

I'm seeing this a lot - our first pick this year is a "hell no" but or F1 is "absolutely, all in" and I don't completely understand. Don't they have pretty comparable value? Why say "only" future 1st? Are Hawthorn fans expecting us to be top 6 next year such that the value is much less?

I think it's pretty reasonable to assume it will be a top 6 or 7 pick next year (compared to pick 4 this year). Therefore, I'm not sure why there is such diametrically opposed views on the current 1st compared to the future 1st?

The draft crop next year is a factor.

 

[user33]

Why? 10,17 and their future first gets it done.

Our F1 is worth more than those picks individually. If Smith wants out and they can get our F1, it allows them to retain some of their own picks.

10/17 may also get eaten up in academy picks for the suns. They could be valuing future assets greater than mid picks this year

 

[Guardian Hawk]

The draft crop next year is a factor.

Tell me more please. Is it considered worse? It's still a year away and my experience is that every year it is considered that there is elite talent at the top end regardless (perhaps with the exception of the COVID year but that was considered to have a number of elite prospects at the time anyway).

It can't be because it is expected to be 'midfielder heavy', given that applies to the talent available to us in this draft also (and of course Bailey Smith is a midfielder anyway)

 

[PenAndPaper]

If GC trade out their first this year to get two first this year they are absolute imbeciles. People need to stop worrying about the points, they will get these points by moving players out.

They will want to move out this year's first for a future first. This means they still get Jed Walter and have another first next year.trading this year's first just to be eaten up by points would be legitimately dumb.

 

[TylerDurden]

Pick 3 locked in.

 

[Topiary]

I'm seeing this a lot - our first pick this year is a "hell no" but or F1 is "absolutely, all in" and I don't completely understand. Don't they have pretty comparable value? Why say "only" future 1st? Are Hawthorn fans expecting us to be top 6 next year such that the value is much less?

I think it's pretty reasonable to assume it will be a top 6 or 7 pick next year (compared to pick 4 this year). Therefore, I'm not sure why there is such diametrically opposed views on the current 1st compared to the future 1st?

Simply because we get two quality players this year and don’t need GC or any one else for that matter trading with us. We get a good much needed forward with our 2023 pick, a very good potential match winner with our future 1st and it gives us confidence we can trade players this year more on need and gives us greater chance of cred with FA in 2024 and beyond.

 

[triple treat]

Which we don’t have a need to give up.

We don’t have academy kids to match bids on.

If we can get pick 10 pick 17 plus a future 1st that gives us 2 1st’s this year and 2 1st’s next year. That’s a lot to work with.
Could we go future 1st ( dogs) , 17 and 28 for pick 4 (GC) then trade future 1st ( ours) for B.smith?

 

[Tony3163]

Pick 3 locked in.

 

[WatWouldCyrilDo]

Pick 3 locked in.

So, as a 25-year-old, a guaranteed contract of $775,000 might be enough to tick off first-round compensation, whereas for a 26-year-old that threshold might have been $800,000 and a 27-year-old $850,000.

Ralphy still talking out his arse.. he's not sure.

 

[user33]

If GC trade out their first this year to get two first this year they are absolute imbeciles. People need to stop worrying about the points, they will get these points by moving players out.

They will want to move out this year's first for a future first. This means they still get Jed Walter and have another first next year.trading this year's first just to be eaten up by points would be legitimately dumb.

Spot on, moving players like Chol and Hollands for 2nds and 3rds allows them to trade pick 4 for better assets next year

 

[theiaofseed]

Pick 3 locked in.

As if there was any doubt

 

[Guardian Hawk]

If GC trade out their first this year to get two first this year they are absolute imbeciles. People need to stop worrying about the points, they will get these points by moving players out.

They will want to move out this year's first for a future first. This means they still get Jed Walter and have another first next year.trading this year's first just to be eaten up by points would be legitimately dumb.

A scenario I would love is that once the first couple of picks are known (Reid, etc), we tell Gold Coast we want to bid on Walter (as we obviously need a key forward) at pick 3. However, we will trade them pick 3 and our future 2nd for pick 4 and their future first. Gold Coast get ahead of the Walter bid, meaning they get an extra first rounder this year (Pick 3 + Walter) and an early 2nd next year. In other words, they end up with 2 firsts and a second.

We still get our man this year but have upgraded our 2nd to a first next year, meaning we will have 2 firsts.

Unlikely to work (better offers, Walter bid coming earlier)- but has genuine benefit for both teams.

 

[westhawk]

Pick 3 locked in.

What a joke, just because he was born later in the year, they get pick 3. Great system AFL. That couple of months must make a massive difference. I think the Scum offered him a bumper contract that guaranteed pick 3, and just don’t want it coming out. John Ralph is such a knob.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

If we can get pick 10 pick 17 plus a future 1st that gives us 2 1st’s this year and 2 1st’s next year. That’s a lot to work with.
Could we go future 1st ( dogs) , 17 and 28 for pick 4 (GC) then trade future 1st ( ours) for B.smith?

We’re not getting Picks 10 and 17, just like we’re not getting Pick 4.

 

[pd_89]

Apologies I'm a bit late to the party on this rumour but saw an article in The Age linking us to Jamarra Ugle-Haga in 2024. What do you guys think about this?

 

[Franko Armani]

W

Apologies I'm a bit late to the party on this rumour but saw an article in The Age linking us to Jamarra Ugle-Haga in 2024. What do you guys think about this?

Would be totally amazing.

 

[WatWouldCyrilDo]

We’re not getting Picks 10 and 17, just like we’re not getting Pick 4.

We could easily get pick 4, if we wanted to trade F1. Only way any team could better that is if WCE or North offer F1.

 

[butlers hawks]

We could easily get pick 4, if we wanted to trade F1. Only way any team could better that is if WCE or North offer F1.

If Dogs are offering 10, 17 and f1 as rumoured then that’s better than Hawthorns f1 alone