AFL RDT 2024 AFL DT

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Trade in targets this week?

Treloar - hard matchup, mild tag risk given Cincotta went to Cogs, but recent form/season work solid
Moore - getting hard to ignore the 5 game average of 108, and season avg of 89 now stacks up esp when early season he was returning from Glandular
Taranto - does Bedford go to him? Surely he's not good enough. Seems reliable
Newman - nice matchup, good form.
Stewart - is he a 100+ guy in this new role?
Rivers - 2 out of 3 really good scores in this role, but still only a 3 week average of 98
Sinclair - flying since being permanently settled in defence
Butters - is he back? Tag-lite run coming up
Brayshaw - Nice run coming up - but season's been a bit odd. Richmond a v good matchup for someone like him
Bont - priced high, but he's the man
TDK/Xerri/Nankervis/English - Should Gawn go?

No real confidence in any of them, but have 280k to play with and Sexton/Holmes/Gawn are a bit in the gun. Maybe Nic Martin, Serong, Fisher, Hayden Young could be too I guess.

North having the Saturday arvo game again kills me with Maley/Dawson two of my zeroes. If Heeney is out too he's not even loopable given how early his game is. Infuriating!
 

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rd17: 2345pts (top 4%)
overall: 109th (top 1%)... up 18 spots
trades: 10

Sheezel + Caldwell + Simpkin + Dunkley + Merrett + Rozee = :thumbsu:
Sexton + Gawn(c) + Dawson = :thumbsdown:
leaving Mannagh on the bench = :cryv1:

Gawn is in doubt... and my backup ruck is Livingstone, so i'm facing a zero
plan A is to bring in Jackson(fwd) and he can swap with Livingstone as ruck cover
plan B is to trade Gawn -> Xerri/English/Grundy/Nank/TDK/Briggs... already got Marshall
so it might be time to trade out Sexton -> Jackson... Mannagh/Dowling can cover in the fwdline
i'll also trade in Humphries to build my bank... Richards can GTFO of my team
Mason Wood has been added to the fwds (ave 92 from last 5 games)... could be worthwhile :eekv1:
Simpkin, Rozee, Green need to keep up the good work !!
Dawson has been a bit down recently, so he needs to lift !!
 
Gawn looking like he's out is fun. Especially if Heeney is out too.

Can always run Kreuger EMG on Friday night and see how he goes but I doubt he gets an 80 or so. So would be an auto-trade for me provided Kreuger doesn't help given the positioning/trades left/Gawn's form.

Who comes in is that hard one.

I've got a little ruck spreadsheet that calculates the difficulty of each ruck to play against/strength of their fixture (it weights performance/scores for & against against the 'other top rucks' higher than scores put out against stop gaps/backups/spuds) and it doesn't make it much easier.

For the record, here's how I've got it for the rucks

Ruck: Expected opposition impact over the final 7 games, Next 3, Next 5

TDK: +3.1, +0.6, +1.1
Xerri: +5.5, +4.5, +4.8
Grundy: -4.0, -5.0, -3.3
Nank: +2.8, +2.9, +2.1
English: +0.7, +4.5, +0.4
Gawn: +1.1, +2.2, +3.2
Cameron: +1.1, +9.0, +5.5
Marshall: +1.5, -1.7, -2.6
Briggs: +0.3, -1.9, -1.4

Other notes:
  • TDK's final 3 is +8.8
  • Xerri's final six is +8.1
  • Nank's next two is +7.6
  • English's next two is +11.7
  • Cameron's next four is +9.4 but his final 3 is -9.8
  • Marshall's final three is +9.1

So based on that & the body of work so far this season, I reckon Xerri's the standout ruck from here on. But he'll probably have a down week this week, which if Gawn only misses one, isn't an amazing result. TDK has the benefit of 100k cash grab which if put on Sexton's head means I can get him to most people. But if I'm gonna go Richards to Humphries anyway, it probably doesn't matter if I'm gonna grab cash or not.
 
Is Sam Draper worth a shot at 556k as a forward if he is solo ruck this week? Essendon looked better with Caddy in/no Goldy, so I suspect it may persist, Draper's had 79 v Cameron & 94 v WCE as a solo ruck this year, 76 in his only solo ruck game last year.

I guess the negative is that last year he went at 67 only, and despite having Phillips or Bryan play all bar one game with him, he still had 77% TOG & 66% CBAs on the year (with Flip/Bryan Draper seemed to do a 65/35 split. With Goldy it's been a 45/55 almost) so even if being a solo guy gets him 15% more CBAs, he may only be good for 75-80 doing it.

But I guess is 75-80 passable for F6 anyway? Always a chance with continuity and less time rotating his points per minute while rucking increases too, as often seems to be the way for rucks.

Other option for me potentially would be to go for Mannagh as my downgrade target and loop him Friday night instead of Humphries. If I go Mannagh it forces Holmes into D7 unless I bring in a def rookie at some stage, and means my mid bench long term would be Dowling, Mannagh, Hall (0) and fwd bench Sexton, Kreuger. Which isn't ideal, I'd prefer Holmes being in the mids and being able to flip with a Humphries.

But on Mannagh's form from the other night all he needs is a 75-80 on Friday night and he's worth his weight in gold as a Heeney owner.
 
Skippos said:
Is Sam Draper worth a shot at 556k as a forward if he is solo ruck this week? Essendon looked better with Caddy in/no Goldy, so I suspect it may persist, Draper's had 79 v Cameron & 94 v WCE as a solo ruck this year, 76 in his only solo ruck game last year.

I guess the negative is that last year he went at 67 only, and despite having Phillips or Bryan play all bar one game with him, he still had 77% TOG & 66% CBAs on the year (with Flip/Bryan Draper seemed to do a 65/35 split. With Goldy it's been a 45/55 almost) so even if being a solo guy gets him 15% more CBAs, he may only be good for 75-80 doing it.

But I guess is 75-80 passable for F6 anyway? Always a chance with continuity and less time rotating his points per minute while rucking increases too, as often seems to be the way for rucks.

Other option for me potentially would be to go for Mannagh as my downgrade target and loop him Friday night instead of Humphries. If I go Mannagh it forces Holmes into D7 unless I bring in a def rookie at some stage, and means my mid bench long term would be Dowling, Mannagh, Hall (0) and fwd bench Sexton, Kreuger. Which isn't ideal, I'd prefer Holmes being in the mids and being able to flip with a Humphries.

But on Mannagh's form from the other night all he needs is a 75-80 on Friday night and he's worth his weight in gold as a Heeney owner.
Click to expand...
Heeney will play. His suspension will be over-turned on appeal. Put your house on it !!!
 
No Gawn, Touk, Heeney, Fish!

Might need to use my last boost to bring in Brayshaw, Moore and a rookie!

Sent from my SM-G781B using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
Just thinking about trades now. Fisher hold sucked. Throw in Gawn & Heeney and big yikes. Reckon Sexton could be in trouble too, Davies probably plays as the Touk replacement, Rosas already on field as the Day replacement, but you'd think Dimma surely makes an unforced change after the reaction last week? Just about which of Budarick, Walter and Johnston come in. Budarick for Sexton kinda feels logical to me. Or Sexton to sub.

Is there a reason why Mason Wood isn't a no-brainer other than the last week's score being a bit shit? Take out his injury game and he averages 90. After averaging 92 last year (with a season low of 67). I guess the only flag is if he's moved more forward of late (and whether that'll impact his scoring) given the King injury? Crows, West Coast, Essendon, Brisbane, Richmond, Geelong, Carlton feels like a nice enough run for an outside guy as well?
 

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Skippos said:
Just thinking about trades now. Fisher hold sucked. Throw in Gawn & Heeney and big yikes. Reckon Sexton could be in trouble too, Davies probably plays as the Touk replacement, Rosas already on field as the Day replacement, but you'd think Dimma surely makes an unforced change after the reaction last week? Just about which of Budarick, Walter and Johnston come in. Budarick for Sexton kinda feels logical to me. Or Sexton to sub.

Is there a reason why Mason Wood isn't a no-brainer other than the last week's score being a bit shit? Take out his injury game and he averages 90. After averaging 92 last year (with a season low of 67). I guess the only flag is if he's moved more forward of late (and whether that'll impact his scoring) given the King injury? Crows, West Coast, Essendon, Brisbane, Richmond, Geelong, Carlton feels like a nice enough run for an outside guy as well?
Click to expand...
Talk about reaching !! Mason Wood. Really ??
 
Pea Nut said:
Talk about reaching !! Mason Wood. Really ??
Click to expand...
Why is it a reach?

2024 forwards by 2024 average, excluding injury/sub games & blokes playing this week

1. Zorko (111)
2. Flanders (111)
3. Heeney (108)
4. Caldwell (95)
5. Wood (90)
6. Moore (89)
7. Daniher (88)
8. Miers (86)
9-12. Sexton (85), McKay (84), Cameron (83), Jackson (82 - 94 when primary ruck, 71 as primary forward)
13-16. Kennedy (82), Baker (82), McInerney (81), Bolton (81),

If you look at anyone remotely relevant this year's output last year (so Macrae, Dusty, Caleb, Ziebell, Tex etc. excluded)

1. Wood (90)
2. Flanders (89)
3. Moore (88)
4. Bolton (87)
5. Greene (86)
6. Jackson (85)

He's not a 100 guy, but he's got an equal body of work to Dylan Moore but slightly better, with slightly worse recent form.
 
Option A)
Gawn for Xerri. Richards for Humphries. (Humphries better for me long term than Mannagh). Keep Fisher, keep Sexton.
Either Kreuger into Dowling FWD Loop to cover Heeney, or Kreuger R Loop, if he's good, hold Gawn a week and trade Fisher to cover Heeney.
Humprhies & Holmes EMG Loops M/D tonight.

Option B)
Gawn for Xerri. Richards for Mannagh.
Mannagh into Dowling EMG loop to cover Heeney. Kreuger ruck EMG (and hold Gawn/trade Fisher to cover Heeney if Kreuger does well).
Holmes M looped.

Option C)
Gawn for Xerri. Richards/Dowling Loop for Heeney, Kreuger loop for Gawn (don't trade gawn if Kreuger good).
Fisher for Moore/Jackson/Wood if Richards/Kreuger don't pull through.

Have to trade Richards next week in this scenario as the lack of flexibility in his positioning (with Kreuger/Maley in the side) is a massive handicap.
---
Think these are my options. Sexton either being dropped or sub would be a stupid curveball too.

Mannagh probably makes the most sense if there's a reasonable chance the bloke is a 70-80 guy. Happy to cop that to cover Heeney given it's only 15 less than the F6 would go for. I guess how much of a ceiling game was last week? Realistically speaking, what is he good for? 110 in the VFL last year, but only 86 in the VFL this year.

And I guess the other ? is whether Fisher's actually going to come back or is he deadweight? Not really sure if he's omitted or still injured this week?
 
Looks like Sexton is out. **** him. I'll keep Fisher and hope for the best I reckon. Full send this week now.

1720765740622.png

Gawn -> Xerri
Sexton -> Mannagh & 515k

I don't really want to trade any of the forwards in this week, full stop. So I won't. Gambling that Mannagh will be not far from the mark and banking the cash with Sexton & hoping Fisher returns next week.

Richards & Dowling looping for Heeney unless Kreuger has a worldie, in which case Gawn might hold on a week and instead Dowling will become a fwd replacement for Heeney. If Richards is sub, I'll probably run Kreuger/Dowling for the loop or maybe trade him instead of Sexton.

Have no doubt most people are in a lot of trouble this week so hopefully can manage the damage a little, but expecting to drop. Hopefully the 23 premiums + 4 trades & 500k will set me up to rise in the back end.

I think the only choice I've gotta make now is whether I take the flier on Mannagh, or the flier on Phillipou instead.
 
Skippos said:
I think the only choice I've gotta make now is whether I take the flier on Mannagh, or the flier on Phillipou instead.
Click to expand...
I have Mannagh already, and holding Fisher and Heeney, so have traded Richards out for Phillipou. Very uneasy about it. It's the kind of decision that usually bites me. Think I'll stick with it though.
 
Wels Eicke said:
I have Mannagh already, and holding Fisher and Heeney, so have traded Richards out for Phillipou. Very uneasy about it. It's the kind of decision that usually bites me. Think I'll stick with it though.
Click to expand...

Depending on your trades left, I think it's the right call. A lot of the forwards this week are hard. Jackson's a one week play. Wood's probably good but be nice to have another week to check his role without King. Moore's expensive. Form/role concerns on nearly all others. So best to take a risk/reward guy knowing that next week we'll have a better picture of who the guy is.

I guess the only issue would be if Moore goes off again - he'll be crazy expensive by then. But it's probably riskier to spend so much on someone without confidence they're top 6 this week.

I like Pou, he makes a lot of sense. But that game he played pre-dropping where he was pretty mcuh full time midfield and had 4 touches just sticks with me. I guess he's a confidence guy and he gradually improved his VFL output in that six week stint then carried on with it. It makes sense.
 
I think I take on Dowling instead of taking Richards’ 54?

Other decision to make is which player to bench to take Holmes’s 114? Gulden, Walsh, Merrett, Green, Serong, Rozee, Young, Nic Martin the options.

Leaning towards Young or Martin.
 
Skippos said:
I think I take on Dowling instead of taking Richards’ 54?

Other decision to make is which player to bench to take Holmes’s 114? Gulden, Walsh, Merrett, Green, Serong, Rozee, Young, Nic Martin the options.

Leaning towards Young or Martin.
Click to expand...

Or, just found a creative DPP way where I can make Daicos’ 85 the one whose score I don’t take, but it’d mean fielding Richards 54 ahead of Dowling.

So, which option is best?

Hayden Young/Nic Martin?

Or Dowling & 31 points head start
 
Skippos said:
I think I take on Dowling instead of taking Richards’ 54?

Other decision to make is which player to bench to take Holmes’s 114? Gulden, Walsh, Merrett, Green, Serong, Rozee, Young, Nic Martin the options.

Leaning towards Young or Martin.
Click to expand...
Has to be one or those 2. Tough call, Young went 105 last week but we left him forward of stoppage for easy plus 6's. Martin seems to be slowing in last quarters. His last 4 games have had 6, 7, 25 & 18 in the 4th.

I've switched Heeney to mids for Dowling over Richards. If he's sub I'll just switch to Livingstone and take the 54.
 

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AFL RDT 2024 AFL DT

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