Preview 2024 Rd 19 Carlton vs North Melbourne Sunday 21st July 4:40PM AEST @ Marvel Stadium

[Aphrodite]

Final Team is in …


4 changes

UPDATE: 20th June:-

IN: SAM DURDIN
OUT: CALEB MARCHBANK (Illness)

AFL team news: Blues back speed, Boyd out through injury

Carlton has made four changes for the clash with North Melbourne.

www.carltonfc.com.au

MILESTONE: Adam Cerra 50 Carlton games

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

The defensive 1 on 1 stats are crap. If Kemp follows hogan into a pack and loses or falls over this is not considered a 1 on 1 loss.

If Kemp is standing Hogan before the high ball comes in he is accountable to stop Hogan as best he can. In any normal persons eyes. CD's version is a half useless rating that is used for different purposes of evaluation.

And why should they be considered a one on one loss, if every defender in the pack fails to spoil the ball? You can't dismiss the stat just like that. The fact is that Kemp and Marchbank lose the same amount of defensive one on ones across their careers, and this year, Marchbank is losing 4 out of 5. These are the players we are comparing after all.

 

[katmanblue]

That seems quite generalised. When a high ball comes in and a pack forms, you're suggesting that he needs to stay down and body his opponent, when he is usually on the main target? You'd crucify him if he didn't go up.

Incidentally, across their careers, in contested defensive one on one losses, Kemp is 34.1%, and Marchbank's is 33.8%.

This season, Kemp is 30.8% and Marchbank is 80%. Kemp also averages 4.3 spoils per game to Marchbank 2.7%.

At some point, some stats have to make a lie of the eye test. Certain errors stand out in the memory and multiply in the mind over time.

80% in one on one defensive losses ... sheesh. Even I had no idea it was that bad.

Does that 80% include the ones where he falls over and can't even make a contest? More than a few of those, too.

On SM-F946B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[bigblueboy]

Interesting.

So it begs the Q'n - why would he prefer Marchy to Kemp?

probably purely based on what he sees out on the ground.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

I never understood the high regard Marchbank had with selectors and some supporters. A lot of references to how well he played in the prelim last year - but not a lot since then or before tbh.

Based on current form feels like Voss and MC wanting to prove something by giving him another go. Maybe they want to see Sam Durdin and Weiters as the KPD anchors and Marchbank to play a roaming interceptor role which might suit him better than one on one defending.

Marchbank played well in the prelim, but he played outside the defensive 50 a lot. This is highlighted by him having 20 disposals and 8 marks, but only 2 rebound 50s. For a guy playing between the arcs though, he only had 1 inside 50.

McGovern had 24 disposals, 5 marks, 10 rebound 50s and 3 inside 50s, so he was playing behind Marchbank for most of the game, but also attacked more.

Weitering had 17 disposals, 8 marks, 11 rebound 50s and 1 inside 50, so clearly the deepest defender.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Does that 80% include the ones where he falls over and can't even make a contest? More than a few of those, too.

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If his opponent gets the ball, then it would I assume.

 

[JustOneTime]

And why should they be considered a one on one loss, if every defender in the pack fails to spoil the ball? You can't dismiss the stat just like that. The fact is that Kemp and Marchbank lose the same amount of defensive one on ones across their careers, and this year, Marchbank is losing 4 out of 5. These are the players we are comparing after all.

I point this out because everyone uses this stat to say Carlton or said player is a good defender (Carlton is ranked number 1 for defence etc). It's simply a very misleading stat.

I point it out specifically with Kemp because due to his lack of size/weight he is pushed over in packs a lot. He is blocked a lot from reaching the ball. All due to the wrong weight class. There isnt a stat to use for this. And I'd agree im using my eye test to call it out.

So (IMO only) there is hidden weaknesses in Kemps game that I want rid of for the benefit of the Carlton defence. Note: I dont want rid of Kemp; I just dont want him to be our 2nd tall defender.

I reiterate, Kemp has been thrown to the wolves.

In terms of the Marchbank comment...its a worthless one in my eyes. Marchy needs continuity to judge.

 

[bigblueboy]

It shouldn't be about who Weitering gets along with best.

I really hope this is not a factor.

Don’t think it's about who he likes.
I wish I could find vision of the players going to the 3qrt time huddle at the Geelong game … it would provide an interesting insight into Weitering’s influence and role as the backline leader.

 

[SurreyBlue]

Hope Durdin plays to free up Weitering and marchbank is the third tall and if he doesn't start to fire is replaced by guv .. shuffling of cincotta boyd Cowan will be interesting going fwd from here if we play a 7 man fwd line and cotterell ..

Durdin is slower than Young and has the turning circle of the titanic. Seriously that inclusion will just about be the worst selection this week, especially against a small Kangaroos forward line.
Kemp should be in, as he can play on a small but has been hung out to dry. While others with 6 & 7 possession from a wing / half forward line are still named. Just favouritism and selections such as these will not get us where we want to be.

Players need to earn their spot - that breeds successful environments.
This is our issue currently.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

I point this out because everyone uses this stat to say Carlton or said player is a good defender (Carlton is ranked number 1 for defence etc). It's simply a very misleading stat.

I point it out specifically with Kemp because due to his lack of size/weight he is pushed over in packs a lot. He is blocked a lot from reaching the ball. All due to the wrong weight class. There isnt a stat to use for this. And I'd agree im using my eye test to call it out.

So (IMO only) there is hidden weaknesses in Kemps game that I want rid of for the benefit of the Carlton defence. Note: I dont want rid of Kemp; I just dont want him to be our 2nd tall defender.

I reiterate, Kemp has been thrown to the wolves.

The weaknesses are hidden. They are on show every week because of the crazy jobs he get. If he got to play on forwards of a similar size or smaller, he'd go pretty well IMO. He has the aggression, pace and athleticism to do that job.

I agree he isn't a 2nd defender. He would be good playing in Newman's spot when it's available. Not as a distributor, but the way Newman bodies opponents under the ball and marks from behind. Kemp can do that against smaller opponents for sure. He is probably a better version of Plowman as far as that role goes.

Marchbank is most certainly not a second defender either though. Not on the evidence of his 56 games at Carlton. I'd be curious who his opponents have been in those games, and how he went.

 

[kreuze_missile]

Hard to know what to make of team selections until the final changes are in.

I hope it's Boyd, Hewett, Owies & Cunningham with Carroll sub.

Cottrell sent to the VFL to find form after two worst on ground performances. Pitto goes for team balance.

Is the backline too short without Durdin in the side..?

 

[BRADLESTICKS]

There is no case that can be made for Marchbank playing his role better than Kemp this season. Eye test or statistically.

To be fair to Marchbank he has played 3 games this season and no games back to back we all understand he struggles with injuries, however the last time he had a semi decent run of games in a row was late last season where a strong argument can be made that he was our best defender over the course of our 3 finals.

 

[blues4flag]

That seems quite generalised. When a high ball comes in and a pack forms, you're suggesting that he needs to stay down and body his opponent, when he is usually on the main target? You'd crucify him if he didn't go up.

Incidentally, across their careers, in contested defensive one on one losses, Kemp is 34.1%, and Marchbank's is 33.8%.

This season, Kemp is 30.8% and Marchbank is 80%. Kemp also averages 4.3 spoils per game to Marchbank 2.7%.

At some point, some stats have to make a lie of the eye test. Certain errors stand out in the memory and multiply in the mind over time.

80% in one on one defensive losses ... sheesh. Even I had no idea it was that bad.

Small sample size with Marchbank - he's only had 5 one on ones this season, so it's literally 4 from 5.

3 of those were in the first North game, 1 v Sydney, and none against the Dogs.

If the MC have seen enough of Kemp and Marchbank in the second tall role, I can understand the rationale. Durdin comes in as the second tall, Marchbank drops back to be the intercept player which he does do very well.

Would love to see Kemp used as a forward in the VFL. The current role isn't playing to his strengths and he's well done on confidence.

Still not convinced that Marchbank hasn't checked out mentally but happy for the MC to give it him another go and see if he can build into form.

 

[kreuze_missile]

Marchbank was atrocious the last time we played North.

Had 4 kicked on him in Q1 alone.

Kemp getting punished one week late after having a bag kicked on him against GWS?

 

[JustOneTime]

The weaknesses are hidden. They are on show every week because of the crazy jobs he get. If he got to play on forwards of a similar size or smaller, he'd go pretty well IMO. He has the aggression, pace and athleticism to do that job.

I agree he isn't a 2nd defender. He would be good playing in Newman's spot when it's available. Not as a distributor, but the way Newman bodies opponents under the ball and marks from behind. Kemp can do that against smaller opponents for sure. He is probably a better version of Plowman as far as that role goes.

Marchbank is most certainly not a second defender either though. Not on the evidence of his 56 games at Carlton. I'd be curious who his opponents have been in those games, and how he went.

So to keep it simple we are mostly in agreement. Personally I'd groom Kemp for Newy's role. It's an improvement in foot speed, Kemp;s a utility type so should be able to rack up possessions/metres gained. The additional benefit would see Kemp fly up unhindered for intercept marks to support the 3 tall defenders on an ad-hoc basis.

We agree on Marchbank to a degree. Everything you say is on the surface right and probably about to be proven right as more info comes to hand. Given i 100% know Kemp isnt right for the role, where I differ is that I'm ok with the decision to gamble on Marchbank - you're not.

I've understand your point of view. It has loads of merit.

Why do i like the idea of a gamble...flags are SOOO hard to win. I want to see Marchbank in case he is one grade better than Kemp. And i defend that gamble with the fact we havent seen much of him to provide conclusive proof.

 

[HaydossJ]

Marchbank was atrocious the last time we played North.

Had 4 kicked on him in Q1 alone.

Kemp getting punished one week late after having a bag kicked on him against GWS?

This is true, but go and re-watch.. some of the softest umpiring you will see

 

[haveago]

It feels like Marchbank is being every opportunity to hold down a spot. Whether thats due to him retiring at years end and wanting to give him a finals chance, or because Weitering does have a say on who he thinks is more compatible as a defensive unit.

I just hope they are not getting caught up in the romantics of that thought process (retiring after a potential medal), and that they are not chosing him based on what he could have been, if injuries hadn't damaged his career.

Unfortunately I think the game has just gone past him and his injuries have had a major play in that

In every game this year he has looked sloppy and his opponent has turned him inside out to the point he is being exposed badly

Like every time he plays I hope he excels, but so far he has fallen flat this year

Fingers this game is different

HERE......NO ROMANTICS!!!

Does Vossy come across a bleeding-heart romantic to you?

I would THINK NOT!

Trust in Voss and Co. I fully agree they haven't had a great couple of weeks with Cotters, Pitto, leaving out Hewy and making Chug sub but I have faith they learn from their mistakes. (We are all geniuses with hindsight)

Faith can move mountains it is said so premierships a doddle with it

Looking forward so much to Jesse back and Hewy is the blue collar midfielder our premiums will love having back.

Pitto back to break glass and all is good.

 

[TheReal99prelim]

Kemp over commits, flying for balls when he should be bodying an opponent.

Doesn't read hand overs as well as others. Peels off at the wrong time to impact a marking contest

When he is good, he is very good, when bad, it costs goals

Nothing new, it's been happening for 12 months

I hope he players 3rd tall forward at VFL level

The last two comments I find frustrating (not at you but how they are linked)
In one breath we are saying that Kemp has been a flaky defender for 12 months and in another breath we would like him trialled as a 3rd tall forward

Maybe Kemp is just not a defender (he was listed as a midfield/utility in his draft year) but we have tried to make a round peg fit in a square hole

I would love to see him played as that 3rd tall, maybe even rotating in the midfield

Hope this defensive experience holds him in good stead and doesn't confuse him or impacts on his confidence as a footballer

 

[Manhattanite]

Walsh, Weitering, Cerra (rate highly), Hewett, Saad (love), Acres, Williams, Charlie (love), Mackay, Martin, Motlop, E Hollands, O Hollands.

Above are my favourites. When we win I talk about them. When we lose, I talk about the others.

So you’re saying you don’t like Cripps


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[ctwenty1]

So you’re saying you don’t like Cripps


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

Surely this is blasphemy

 

[haveago]

Surely this is blasphemy

STONE HIM!!

 

[JustOneTime]

So you’re saying you don’t like Cripps


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

You're killing me here Manhattanite. Of course i like him but i have team favourites and project players.

Well pointed out though.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Pitto, Cotts and Carroll drop out.

Cunningham sub. Final bench of Hewett, Boyd, Durdin and Owies

Happy with that 23 but if Durdin makes the cut I doubt he starts on the bench

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

So to keep it simple we are mostly in agreement. Personally I'd groom Kemp for Newy's role. It's an improvement in foot speed, Kemp;s a utility type so should be able to rack up possessions/metres gained. The additional benefit would see Kemp fly up unhindered for intercept marks to support the 3 tall defenders on an ad-hoc basis.

We agree on Marchbank to a degree. Everything you say is on the surface right and probably about to be proven right as more info comes to hand. Given i 100% know Kemp isnt right for the role, where I differ is that I'm ok with the decision to gamble on Marchbank - you're not.

I've understand your point of view. It has loads of merit.

Why do i like the idea of a gamble...flags are SOOO hard to win. I want to see Marchbank in case he is one grade better than Kemp. And i defend that gamble with the fact we havent seen much of him to provide conclusive proof.

Same. Mostly agree.

I will say that Kemp has had some successes as a second defender, so it's not like he is failing every week. He's just not cut out for the power forwards.

I also think that Marchbank, on his day, can be successful in this role. When he fails though, and that is often, he looks even worse than Kemp, because his intensity never looks as high (some players just appear more laconic), and he's been struggling as a third defender, let alone a second.

The two losses has shaken me a bit. Our game plan is built on intensity and Marchbank doesn't look to have that level of intensity required, and if he not making contests, or dropping easy marks, I see no value in him. I understand that North is an opportunity to gamble, but our selection gambles have not been great lately. We are carrying so many out of form players.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

And no Jack Martin.

Would have been surprised to see him in so soon

 

[kreuze_missile]

The weaknesses are hidden. They are on show every week because of the crazy jobs he get. If he got to play on forwards of a similar size or smaller, he'd go pretty well IMO. He has the aggression, pace and athleticism to do that job.

I agree he isn't a 2nd defender. He would be good playing in Newman's spot when it's available. Not as a distributor, but the way Newman bodies opponents under the ball and marks from behind. Kemp can do that against smaller opponents for sure. He is probably a better version of Plowman as far as that role goes.

Marchbank is most certainly not a second defender either though. Not on the evidence of his 56 games at Carlton. I'd be curious who his opponents have been in those games, and how he went.

Kemp's ideal role is back pocket playing on mid/smaller defenders.

But instead of playing him there, we roll him out to play on the gorillas every week just so Weitering and McGovern can play to their strengths.

Good luck to Weitering this week who is going to have to deal with Larkey solo.