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I think they'll lose more than they'll win. I don't think they have done enough to deliver what they promised in terms of cost of living. I can't see them getting more votes than last election. Obviously the distribution of those will be important, but across the board, I see a small swing against (toward minor parties) which will inevitably cost more seats than it wins.


I'm not sure Dai Le has done poorly enough, or that the damage from the Kenneally parachute can be completely undone.


But if I were betting, yes I think the ALP would win Fowler.


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