Expansion 20th AFL team location

[Bjo187]

We still don’t know how GWS or GC will go.

If you asked the AFL in 2009 if they would be happy with average crowds of 10k and 13k, and home state ratings no higher than Vic clubs get in those markets, the answer would be a strong NO.

They'd take the grassroots growth on the gold coast every day of the week.

I've always been an advocate for the north Sydney kangaroos too, it would have been perfect. But they stuffed that by trying to send them to the gc first. North Sydney would have been a safer bet, but with smaller rewards. West Sydney is a bigger gamble, but the rewards are potentially massive.

Demetriou even said last year that gc will always be a niche club, the giants will be a massive club in time, like the swans. Not that I particular trust anything he says, but it was an interesting point.

 

[Coolangatta]

We still don’t know how GWS or GC will go.

If you asked the AFL in 2009 if they would be happy with average crowds of 10k and 13k, and home state ratings no higher than Vic clubs get in those markets, the answer would be a strong NO.

As you know and I'm sure anyone else who reads my posts here knows by now I'm super keen on expansion.

But yes, I'm sure it's not going as well as they'd hoped in Sydney but I don't think they said it as a foregone conclusion that they've failed yet; the grassroots growth in GC is promising.

Besides, AFL is probably happy with just second clubs in NSW and QLD.

I don't know if they'd actually add third teams to NSW and QLD, even if the Suns and Giants end up doing well.

 

[3207]

North Sydney will never work. Poor infrastructure all around means while its a great place to live local getting anywhere else other than the city on a work day is awful, and even that's barely tolerable. It also means there's no coherent regional community up there. Theres a reason there is only one Sydney NRL team north of the harbour.

Also, Berry St tavern doesn’t exist anymore.

 

[Coolangatta]

Demetriou even said last year that gc will always be a niche club, the giants will be a massive club in time, like the swans. Not that I particular trust anything he says, but it was an interesting point.

Yeah, it's hard to take him seriously after he said the NT has a lot going for it.

Just... no.

 

[PaythePerryman]

Instead we really are staring down the barrel of a bloated "national" competition with no strong foresight.

The AFL doesn't seem to be in a hole or be going badly at all. Increased viewership and number in emerging markets are flying participation.

The comp is stronger and closer than its ever been. I really don't see the issue atm. They made the hard choice to go after growth markets....now they are adding a 'heritage team'. The only big issues I see is the Grand Final being held at the MCG.

 

[Coolangatta]

The AFL doesn't seem to be in a hole or be going badly at all. Increased viewership and number in emerging markets are flying participation.

The comp is stronger and closer than its ever been. I really don't see the issue atm. They made the hard choice to go after growth markets....now they are adding a 'heritage team'. The only big issues I see is the Grand Final being held at the MCG.

The issue is the argument that we should cap the comp at 20 teams.

I don't necessarily think that needs to happen, the argument seems to be that fans won't see their team win a premiership in their lifetime... which is exactly what happened in the 12 team VFL, and when it was 14-16 teams, so...

Technically 1/20 is harder than 1/16 but I suspect there's always going to be some very good teams who win 2-3 premierships in a row or they win 3 in 5 years while others have long droughts. Just the nature of the game.

I agree about the health of the comp. I'd bring in Canberra and get the Riverina more involved, continue the growth.

Beyond that, who knows, but a case can be made for a third team in Perth now, let alone the future, and possibly a second in Brisbane in the future the way they're going.

Do you shut either of these options out if we reach 20, or take a closer look in 20/30 years if the comp is going strong and there's a decent case/demand.

In any case, given that the AFL isn't thinking about a 20th team yet, there's a long, long time for them to make these kind of calls if/when the time comes.

 

[Cubs2Lions]

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=HSWEB_MRE170_a_GGL&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.heraldsun.com.au%2Fsport%2Fafl%2Fnews%2Fafl-great-kevin-sheedy-renews-push-for-a-team-in-newcastle%2Fnews-story%2F9d56e395fe21baa303fdcfeef97214cd&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=GROUPA-Segment-1-NOSCORE

Sheedy’s campaign for a Newcastle team started in 2014, when he was still involved with the GWS Giants. He believes the Hunter Valley area is talent-rich and a boom area for expansion.

“If you want to keep building the game, you go right up the east coast and Newcastle is the next best town, which is going to get a million people. And it’s a beautiful city,” he said.

“I think the Giants and David Matthews (chief executive) and Tony Shepherd (former president) have done a magnificent job in the first 10 years of that club.

“I’ve got no doubt the same could be replicated in Newcastle. I’ve always felt NSW needs three teams … and we definitely need a team between Sydney and the Gold Coast.’’

 

[Canberra Pear]

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=HSWEB_MRE170_a_GGL&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.heraldsun.com.au%2Fsport%2Fafl%2Fnews%2Fafl-great-kevin-sheedy-renews-push-for-a-team-in-newcastle%2Fnews-story%2F9d56e395fe21baa303fdcfeef97214cd&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=GROUPA-Segment-1-NOSCORE

Sheedy’s campaign for a Newcastle team started in 2014, when he was still involved with the GWS Giants. He believes the Hunter Valley area is talent-rich and a boom area for expansion.

“If you want to keep building the game, you go right up the east coast and Newcastle is the next best town, which is going to get a million people. And it’s a beautiful city,” he said.

“I think the Giants and David Matthews (chief executive) and Tony Shepherd (former president) have done a magnificent job in the first 10 years of that club.

“I’ve got no doubt the same could be replicated in Newcastle. I’ve always felt NSW needs three teams … and we definitely need a team between Sydney and the Gold Coast.’’

Was just about to post this, but couldn't find the full article.

A third team in the wider NSW region. Metro of 500-600k. Pretty similar to Canberra, but without the footy support. I think Sheedy would be pro-Canberra if he weren't so intertwined with the Giants.

The summary says Sheedy is suggesting Newcastle as team 19 if things don't move ahead. Do you know if that's what he actually says, or it's just editorialising? Because I assume, without Tasmania, there is no expansion any time soon.

 

[seasonedsainter]

Darwin / NT, call them the Crocodiles, it's a winter sport after all, that's the obvious one imo

 

[Walshawk]

Was just about to post this, but couldn't find the full article.

A third team in the wider NSW region. Metro of 500-600k. Pretty similar to Canberra, but without the footy support. I think Sheedy would be pro-Canberra if he weren't so intertwined with the Giants.

The summary says Sheedy is suggesting Newcastle as team 19 if things don't move ahead. Do you know if that's what he actually says, or it's just editorialising? Because I assume, without Tasmania, there is no expansion any time soon.

Sheedy is a fool. Newcastle is an NRL stronghold.

Perhaps Newcastle could develop a ground capable of hosting an AFL match, and the Giants would play there if Tas and Canberra are teams 19/20.

 

[Coolangatta]

Sheedy is a fool. Newcastle is an NRL stronghold.

Perhaps Newcastle could develop a ground capable of hosting an AFL match, and the Giants would play there if Tas and Canberra are teams 19/20.

That’s the bare minimum of what has to happen if Newcastle is to ever come close to having a team. It would surely have to be a minimum of two games per year played there.

I’m cautious of anywhere that isn’t demanding a team, though. NT we already know want a team, and NQ there was an article behind a paywall about a bid from NQ based in Cairns. We know it's not feasible but my point is, you don't hear jack about NZ or Newcastle or wherever else wanting in.

Interestingly, and this article is also behind a paywall, the WAFC chairman is deadset against a 3rd team in WA. This was only last year. You'd think there's not a hope in hell the AFL could put a 3rd team in WA without WAFC support.

Too bad this isn't getting talked about more by so called footy media that you'd think would be all over these stories. All you have to do is type in "3rd WA team AFL" and you'll find it on the first page.

‘Madness’: WA footy chief quashes notion of third AFL team

West Australian Football Commission chair Wayne Martin has described a push for a third WA AFL team as ‘madness’.

thewest.com.au

Surely the 20th has to be Canberra and unless they step up to the plate, keep it at 19. 20th to somewhere that doesn't want it just for the sake of going to 20 is stupid.

 

[neogh]

That’s the bare minimum of what has to happen if Newcastle is to ever come close to having a team. It would surely have to be a minimum of two games per year played there.

I’m cautious of anywhere that isn’t demanding a team, though. NT we already know want a team, and NQ there was an article behind a paywall about a bid from NQ based in Cairns. We know it's not feasible but my point is, you don't hear jack about NZ or Newcastle or wherever else wanting in.

Interestingly, and this article is also behind a paywall, the WAFC chairman is deadset against a 3rd team in WA. This was only last year. You'd think there's not a hope in hell the AFL could put a 3rd team in WA without WAFC support.

Too bad this isn't getting talked about more by so called footy media that you'd think would be all over these stories. All you have to do is type in "3rd WA team AFL" and you'll find it on the first page.

‘Madness’: WA footy chief quashes notion of third AFL team

West Australian Football Commission chair Wayne Martin has described a push for a third WA AFL team as ‘madness’.

thewest.com.au

Surely the 20th has to be Canberra and unless they step up to the plate, keep it at 19. 20th to somewhere that doesn't want it just for the sake of going to 20 is stupid.

The WA commissioner isn't too wise by suggesting a merger of Melbourne clubs

 

[Coolangatta]

The WA commissioner isn't too wise by suggesting a merger of Melbourne clubs

Right, but nothing about his misguided view on how the competition should deal with 19 teams changes anything about the main point that the WAFC won't support a 3rd WA team, so I don't see how it can happen unless they change their view.

 

[neogh]

Right, but nothing about his misguided view on how the competition should deal with 19 teams changes anything about the main point that the WAFC won't support a 3rd WA team, so I don't see how it can happen unless they change their view.

Wants 18 teams with 2 Vic sides merging, but problem is, which team is feasible in doing so?

 

[Coolangatta]

Wants 18 teams with 2 Vic sides merging, but problem is, which team is feasible in doing so?

If it were to be anyone then North and the Bulldogs. Smallest Vic clubs, similar colours, get the Roos out west and away from the logjam of Pies, Blues and Bombers.

But as you know, mergers are messy, controversial, and it’s extremely unlikely to be supported by the boards, members and supporters.

But who cares what his views are on mergers?

Like I said, the telling thing here is arguably WA footy’s most influential person does NOT want a 3rd team in WA.

What do the “Team 20 should be WA3” advocates have to say about that?

 

[Cunnington Cartel]

Right, but nothing about his misguided view on how the competition should deal with 19 teams changes anything about the main point that the WAFC won't support a 3rd WA team, so I don't see how it can happen unless they change their view.

In saying that though, most commentators are predicting that about 2032 is when team #20 could debut in the competition. A lot could change between now and then.

We also can’t rule out the WAFC playing mind games with the AFL. WA is one of the two hot favourites for the next license and everyone knows this. Therefore, it wouldn’t be wise for the WAFC to come out and declare they’re all for a 3rd club at this early stage, because that would probably give the AFL the upper hand with future negotiations and encourage them to call for greater contributions from the WAFC.

With the financial issues the WAFL and some of its clubs are currently experiencing, it’s no surprise that (publicly) they’re pouring cold water on the concept. However, behind closed doors they may have a different view. As others have noted previously, the AFL largely dictates where they expand to, as opposed to receiving bids from various locations and deciding on the ‘best bid’ (e.g. a-league). While this remains the case it is still very much in the running.

 

[Coolangatta]

In saying that though, most commentators are predicting that about 2032 is when team #20 could debut in the competition. A lot could change between now and then.

We also can’t rule out the WAFC playing mind games with the AFL. WA is one of the two hot favourites for the next license and everyone knows this. Therefore, it wouldn’t be wise for the WAFC to come out and declare they’re all for a 3rd club at this early stage, because that would probably give the AFL the upper hand with future negotiations and encourage them to call for greater contributions from the WAFC.

With the financial issues the WAFL and some of its clubs are currently experiencing, it’s no surprise that (publicly) they’re pouring cold water on the concept. However, behind closed doors they may have a different view. As others have noted previously, the AFL largely dictates where they expand to, as opposed to receiving bids from various locations and deciding on the ‘best bid’ (e.g. a-league).

You may be right, but if the WAFC remains committed to this publicly stated view and it isn’t just show, would that change the AFL trajectory on the 20th team location?

Does Canberra’s chances not significantly increase if the WAFC doesn’t want it? I do wonder what the WAFC does actually have to gain from a 3rd team in WA.

 

[Cunnington Cartel]

You may be right, but if the WAFC remains committed to this publicly stated view and it isn’t just show, would that change the AFL trajectory on the 20th team location?

Does Canberra’s chances not significantly increase if the WAFC doesn’t want it? I do wonder what the WAFC does actually have to gain from a 3rd team in WA.

Answers to the following questions may help open up/eliminate some possibilities:

1. Are the Eagles and Dockers’ licenses still owned by the WAFC?

2. Does some of the revenue generated by the AFL clubs flow back into WA footy at lower tiers of the pyramid?

If yes, then if the modelling for a 3rd club suggests it would be profitable and contribute towards (instead of detract from) the WA footy ecosystem then I’d expect them to change their tune as decision time approaches.

If no, then is there a possibility that the 3rd license could be owned and controlled differently to the other two (e.g. AFL) or would the WAFC have the capacity to block this? The City of Joondalup is already keen to be the base of the 3rd club, so having a large local government as an ally could stimulate the AFL into establishing WA3 differently to the incumbent clubs.

Under the current system it would be impossible for WA3 to operate without WAFC support because they could ensure they’re unable to have a reserves team or WAFL-affiliate club playing in their comp. This impediment would be removed though if a national reserves comp comes online.

If the national reserves comp starts and relegates WAFL to third-tier status then it could be another impetus for the WAFC to change strategy. There’s a lot to play out.

Like I said, crystal balling 8 years into the future can be hard with so many machinations that could be implemented and influence AFL and WAFC decision making. Even Freo could win a flag, pack out Optus and start a reserved seating waiting list - that would really throw the cat amongst the pigeons

 

[Coolangatta]

Answers to the following questions may help open up/eliminate some possibilities:

1. Are the Eagles and Dockers’ licenses still owned by the WAFC?

2. Does some of the revenue generated by the AFL clubs flow back into WA footy at lower tiers of the pyramid?

If yes, then if the modelling for a 3rd club suggests it would be profitable and contribute towards (instead of detract from) the WA footy ecosystem then I’d expect them to change their tune as decision time approaches.

If no, then is there a possibility that the 3rd license could be owned and controlled differently to the other two (e.g. AFL) or would the WAFC have the capacity to block this? The City of Joondalup is already keen to be the base of the 3rd club, so having a large local government as an ally could stimulate the AFL into establishing WA3 differently to the incumbent clubs.

Under the current system it would be impossible for WA3 to operate without WAFC support because they could ensure they’re unable to have a reserves team or WAFL-affiliate club playing in their comp. This impediment would be removed though if a national reserves comp comes online.

If the national reserves comp starts and relegates WAFL to third-tier status then it could be another impetus for the WAFC to change strategy. There’s a lot to play out.

Like I said, crystal balling 8 years into the future can be hard with so many machinations that could be implemented and influence AFL and WAFC decision making. Even Freo could win a flag, pack out Optus and start a reserved seating waiting list - that would really throw the cat amongst the pigeons

Oh c'mon CC, don't talk crazy.

Quick google search tells me yes to your 1 and 2 questions.

So yes, it will be interesting to see if their tune changes. I did see that about the City of Joondalup. I think Bunbury and Mandurah local gov have some comments about it, too, but clearly don't have the populations to support a third WA side in 10 years time compared to the north of Perth.

If I were to guess, this club would most likely be called the Joondalup Falcons. They might go North Perth Falcons for greater representation, but if the Joondalup council has anything to do with it, they'll probably push for the Joondalup name. It could certainly create an interesting rivalry with Freo as there's a genuine north v south of the river rivalry in WA.

You're also correct that a national reserves comp could override the 3rd WA clubs lack of a WAFL affiliate.

As you said earlier, it's probably up to the AFL, but I would say that Tasmania wasn't on their radar so if the AFL didn't want to expand there then maybe they'll wait and see what or who jumps at them for a 20th side.

I really think that's the approach they should take anyway or you're going to end up with sides in places like Newcastle who have shown nothing so far to indicate they want it or would be viable based on market demand.

I mean if it's all on the AFL, there's nothing stopping them from cramming in a third Sydney team as the 20th and just telling everyone that in 50 years time it'll make sense.

 

[Cunnington Cartel]

Oh c'mon CC, don't talk crazy.

Quick google search tells me yes to your 1 and 2 questions.

So yes, it will be interesting to see if their tune changes. I did see that about the City of Joondalup. I think Bunbury and Mandurah local gov have some comments about it, too, but clearly don't have the populations to support a third WA side in 10 years time compared to the north of Perth.

If I were to guess, this club would most likely be called the Joondalup Falcons. They might go North Perth Falcons for greater representation, but if the Joondalup council has anything to do with it, they'll probably push for the Joondalup name. It could certainly create an interesting rivalry with Freo as there's a genuine north v south of the river rivalry in WA.

You're also correct that a national reserves comp could override the 3rd WA clubs lack of a WAFL affiliate.

As you said earlier, it's probably up to the AFL, but I would say that Tasmania wasn't on their radar so if the AFL didn't want to expand there then maybe they'll wait and see what or who jumps at them for a 20th side.

I really think that's the approach they should take anyway or you're going to end up with sides in places like Newcastle who have shown nothing so far to indicate they want it or would be viable based on market demand.

I mean if it's all on the AFL, there's nothing stopping them from cramming in a third Sydney team as the 20th and just telling everyone that in 50 years time it'll make sense.

I agree about Bunbury and Mandurah. If WA is overlooked for the 20th license then those regions will be more seriously looked at for the next round of expansion in a few decades, and they might even go past North Perth as the preferred option.

I guess in theory there’s nothing stopping them going back to Sydney, except for a serious lack of demand and the Giants being 17th or 18th in the league for all off-field metrics. After 3 riskier expansions, I think it’s important for them not to bite off more than they can chew with #20. If that’s the case then the only logical possibilities are Canberra and Perth.

There has been nothing but crickets in relation to the NT/North Aus business case, which was supposed to be presented to the league in December. They are probably waiting until the Tassie situation is a little clearer, although maybe they’ve also hit some dead ends regarding the practicalities and financial viability of the concept.

 

[Coolangatta]

I agree about Bunbury and Mandurah. If WA is overlooked for the 20th license then those regions will be more seriously looked at for the next round of expansion in a few decades, and they might even go past North Perth as the preferred option.

I guess in theory there’s nothing stopping them going back to Sydney, except for a serious lack of demand and the Giants being 17th or 18th in the league for all off-field metrics. After 3 riskier expansions, I think it’s important for them not to bite off more than they can chew with #20. If that’s the case then the only logical possibilities are Canberra and Perth.

There has been nothing but crickets in relation to the NT/North Aus business case, which was supposed to be presented to the league in December. They are probably waiting until the Tassie situation is a little clearer, although maybe they’ve also hit some dead ends regarding the practicalities and financial viability of the concept.

You would think so.

What would a NT team need? A billion dollar indoor, air conditioned, roofed stadium (maybe even with cold rooms). A high performance centre, an academy, tens of millions into grassroots footy. Surely you'd need recruiters who go out to remote communities to scout for young talent, of which I have no doubt there is plenty. Lots of other stuff I'm not thinking of, presumably.

In any case, it'd cost 2 billion+ to set up an NT team, then they need 15 mill each year, likely indefinitely, to keep the team going. Where is all that money coming from?

 

[Cunnington Cartel]

You would think so.

What would a NT team need? A billion dollar indoor, air conditioned, roofed stadium (maybe even with cold rooms). A high performance centre, an academy, tens of millions into grassroots footy. Surely you'd need recruiters who go out to remote communities to scout for young talent, of which I have no doubt there is plenty. Lots of other stuff I'm not thinking of, presumably.

In any case, it'd cost 2 billion+ to set up an NT team, then they need 15 mill each year, likely indefinitely, to keep the team going. Where is all that money coming from?

It would require a ridiculous amount of money. Even if they secured that funding, several of the most pertinent challenges would still remain.

After the Tassie business case and Carter Review, the AFL gave the Tas government 11 workstreams that they needed to demonstrate their capacity to deliver on before the commission and presidents would vote on their license bid. These included: talent pathways, player retention, sponsorship, stadium etc.

The NT would need to develop strategies for all of these + more, albeit with a population base of fewer than 50% of Tasmania’s that is spread out over an area that is 20 x larger. Then we need to factor in the huge distance from the Eastern states, the harsh climate, and the myriad of social issues that should be strong priorities for the NT Government.

It was hard enough for Tassie and after all of these years of work, it’s still on shaky ground. Even if the NT can present a case that’s theoretically possible, they will then have the business case picked apart and will have to prove the viability of the venture in relation to the main points of contention. It would be hard to see them emerge from that stage with an updated plan that secures the backing of the commission and presidents.

 

[Coolangatta]

It would require a ridiculous amount of money. Even if they secured that funding, several of the most pertinent challenges would still remain.

After the Tassie business case and Carter Review, the AFL gave the Tas government 11 workstreams that they needed to demonstrate their capacity to deliver on before the commission and presidents would vote on their license bid. These included: talent pathways, player retention, sponsorship, stadium etc.

The NT would need to develop strategies for all of these + more, albeit with a population base of fewer than 50% of Tasmania’s that is spread out over an area that is 20 x larger. Then we need to factor in the huge distance from the Eastern states, the harsh climate, and the myriad of social issues that should be strong priorities for the NT Government.

It was hard enough for Tassie and after all of these years of work, it’s still on shaky ground. Even if the NT can present a case that’s theoretically possible, they will then have the business case picked apart and will have to prove the viability of the venture in relation to the main points of contention. It would be hard to see them emerge from that stage with an updated plan that secures the backing of the commission and presidents.

The footy media needs to hear from you and Canberra Pear to explain why the NT idea is pie in the sky stuff and why ACT has a much stronger case. I never like to say never but NT really needs to wait until Darwin can get somewhere around 400k+ and that could take 50+ years.

Although if I understand things right, if the future costs of running an AFL club go up, then Darwin would need an even bigger population than 420k or so to be viable.

 

[Bjo187]

West Perth, change the blue to green and all set. You can't start another new franchise team with no history in Perth imo. Once they are in the afl everybody will see them as their own entity anyway and kids don't give a shit that grandpa was a Claremont fan and use to dislike west Perth back in the 70s.

Basil zemplas who could be the premier of W.A in the future too fund it, it's his own club.

 

[neogh]

West Perth, change the blue to green and all set. You can't start another new franchise team with no history in Perth imo. Once they are in the afl everybody will see them as their own entity anyway and kids don't give a s**t that grandpa was a Claremont fan and use to dislike west Perth back in the 70s.

Basil zemplas who could be the premier of W.A in the future too fund it, it's his own club.

Love to see West Perth as the team, but unlike the Queensland Cup, WAFL is broke as.