Player Watch #34: Jack Graham - MOVED TO WCE - PICK 42 Received

[TigerImposter]

He needs to be sent back to the VFL to do some gut running fitness playing on ball. Get some form back and lose some weight.

Yes it’s so bloody obvious.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

He tagged Sloane 6 years ago was a one off. I'm convinced he has irritable bowel syndrome as when he runs he looks like he's groaning and straining like it's bubbling away ready to burst. His face looks like he's putting in all manner of effort but every single opponent leaves him in their wake.

He's incapable of running anyone down. Realistically 90% of his tackles are against stationary blokes. And opponents who actually got in and got the pill ahead of him. Usually they clear the ball anyway. Occasionally he'll tackle someone like a Clayton Oliver (usually they're exhausted cos they've had the thing 40 times as opposed to Graham sitting on his 10th touch relatively fresh as a Daisy).

He'd be lucky to be in the top 12 players maybe once a month. Realistically he's in his prime but his peak is more the you yangs summit leasurely stroll as opposed to a Dusty Mt Everest.

I'd gladly offload him for pick 50 just to dump his salary and free up a spot. Would've much rathered Sonsie, Dow and Banks get another 7 games development each than watch Graham plod all year. He Dean Polo'd 2017 GF and done next to nothing since.

If he is so bad...why in 2022 & 2023 do we win 58% of our games when he plays and under 30% win rate when he doesn't play?

 

[TigerImposter]

If he is so bad...why in 2022 & 2023 do we win 58% oo our games when he plays and under 30% win rate when he doesn't play?

You’re drawing a long bow here mate .

 

[Meteoric Rise]

You’re drawing a long bow here mate .

Not drawing any bow. Just asking a perfectly legitimate question. It is not my job to make that question to the liking of JGTI sellers.

 

[TigerImposter]

Not drawing any bow. Just asking a perfectly legitimate question. It is not my job to make that question to the liking of JGTI sellers.

He’s been poor mate and if you’re bagging out Cumberland then you should be able to see the faults with JGTIsn’t.
As I said your theory supports him being better than JH and TT based on % wins when played. It’s a ridiculous statistic which has so many variables that the statement can’t be taking seriously as better players with a smaller % show it to be tripe.

 

[tigers12]

He was worth a late 1st rounder or early 2nd rounder last season he would be worth 4th or 5th rounder now

 

[mauricerioli]

He needs to be sent back to the VFL to do some gut running fitness playing on ball. Get some form back and lose some weight.

Yes it’s so bloody obvious.

He might need to be dropped for form but definitely not fitness.

His GPS numbers are as high as they always are.

Number 1 on the ground for distance at high speed, number 1 for average speed, number 3 for average speed in attack and top 5 for total sprints.

 

[TigerImposter]

He might need to be dropped for form but definitely not fitness.

His GPS numbers are as high as they always are.

Number 1 on the ground for distance at high speed, number 1 for average speed, number 3 for average speed in attack and top 5 for total sprints.

He needs to shed weight. Those stats mean nothing as he can run heaps of kms or do sprints just playing follow the leader.

 

[tunksy]

He might need to be dropped for form but definitely not fitness.

His GPS numbers are as high as they always are.

Number 1 on the ground for distance at high speed, number 1 for average speed, number 3 for average speed in attack and top 5 for total sprints.

Number 1 for not finding the ball? haha

 

[Meteoric Rise]

He’s been poor mate and if you’re bagging out Cumberland then you should be able to see the faults with JGTIsn’t.
As I said your theory supports him being better than JH and TT based on % wins when played. It’s a ridiculous statistic which has so many variables that the statement can’t be taking seriously as better players with a smaller % show it to be tripe.

JGTI has probably not been shooting the lanterns out recently, however...the theory query you are making here rests solely upon Hopper. Taranto has not missed any matches, so he has no "without" sample to compare.

Hopper has played 7 qualifying games. 2-1-4 is the record in those games. Without him playing at least 50% game time the team's record is 4-4.

So....

a) this is a very small sample

b) his 'with" sample is heavily populated by matches that may give us cause to want to wait a bit longer to see if it is a true sample. One match he played is off the bye where the team had a shocker. And a number of early season games were played when the team was settling in half a new midfield and some new game plan elements.

Hopper could yet prove to be a player whose presence causes us to lose more than win. But more likely I think is we see his figures correct over time to reveal he is an important part of the team.

The point you are no doubt trying to make is that variance can affect the figures of all players. I accept that. But JGTI has proven over time the team functions better with him than without him. If he has suddenly washed up at 25yo, I will be surprised. If he is struggling to fulfil his role it will likely be that something is wrong like a niggle or illness and the selectors are wanting him to play anyway due to the lack of viable alternatives. JGTI has been at Richmond for 155 matches. He has played 109, and missed 46 matches. They are big sample sizes. The team has 66% of the matches he has played in. 2 wins for every 1 loss. The team has won 60% of matches from his debut season onwards when he did not play. If I get a chance tomorrow I will have a look through all significant players from the start of 2017 and we can see how random or otherwise this with/without figure is.

But unless Graham has suddenly hit a wall at 25 and will never get back to his best, there is no way I am casting him off, and this is based on his record.

 

[TigerImposter]

JGTI has probably not been shooting the lanterns out recently, however...the theory query you are making here rests solely upon Hopper. Taranto has not missed any matches, so he has no "without" sample to compare.

Hopper has played 7 qualifying games. 2-1-4 is the record in those games. Without him playing at least 50% game time the team's record is 4-4.

So....

a) this is a very small sample

b) his 'with" sample is heavily populated by matches that may give us cause to want to wait a bit longer to see if it is a true sample. One match he played is off the bye where the team had a shocker. And a number of early season games were played when the team was settling in half a new midfield and some new game plan elements.

Hopper could yet prove to be a player whose presence causes us to lose more than win. But more likely I think is we see his figures correct over time to reveal he is an important part of the team.

The point you are no doubt trying to make is that variance can affect the figures of all players. I accept that. But JGTI has proven over time the team functions better with him than without him. If he has suddenly washed up at 25yo, I will be surprised. If he is struggling to fulfil his role it will likely be that something is wrong like a niggle or illness and the selectors are wanting him to play anyway due to the lack of viable alternatives. JGTI has been at Richmond for 155 matches. He has played 109, and missed 46 matches. They are big sample sizes. The team has 66% of the matches he has played in. 2 wins for every 1 loss. The team has won 60% of matches from his debut season onwards when he did not play. If I get a chance tomorrow I will have a look through all significant players from the start of 2017 and we can see how random or otherwise this with/without figure is.

But unless Graham has suddenly hit a wall at 25 and will never get back to his best, there is no way I am casting him off, and this is based on his record.

This is confirmation though on why your small sample size of data shouldn’t be used. The TT example was used as a stat to show when he’s playing we’re less successful than when JGTI is playing. It’s the worst stat I’ve ever come across due to so many variables.

 

[TigerImposter]

JGTI has probably not been shooting the lanterns out recently, however...the theory query you are making here rests solely upon Hopper. Taranto has not missed any matches, so he has no "without" sample to compare.

Hopper has played 7 qualifying games. 2-1-4 is the record in those games. Without him playing at least 50% game time the team's record is 4-4.

So....

a) this is a very small sample

b) his 'with" sample is heavily populated by matches that may give us cause to want to wait a bit longer to see if it is a true sample. One match he played is off the bye where the team had a shocker. And a number of early season games were played when the team was settling in half a new midfield and some new game plan elements.

Hopper could yet prove to be a player whose presence causes us to lose more than win. But more likely I think is we see his figures correct over time to reveal he is an important part of the team.

The point you are no doubt trying to make is that variance can affect the figures of all players. I accept that. But JGTI has proven over time the team functions better with him than without him. If he has suddenly washed up at 25yo, I will be surprised. If he is struggling to fulfil his role it will likely be that something is wrong like a niggle or illness and the selectors are wanting him to play anyway due to the lack of viable alternatives. JGTI has been at Richmond for 155 matches. He has played 109, and missed 46 matches. They are big sample sizes. The team has 66% of the matches he has played in. 2 wins for every 1 loss. The team has won 60% of matches from his debut season onwards when he did not play. If I get a chance tomorrow I will have a look through all significant players from the start of 2017 and we can see how random or otherwise this with/without figure is.

But unless Graham has suddenly hit a wall at 25 and will never get back to his best, there is no way I am casting him off, and this is based on his record.

All those figures are exaggerated when our team was winning premierships. So there were retirees like Dave, HoulI, Griggs, Sheds etc etc. which proves my point as what you’re saying is nonsense. Now your previous stats based on JGTI last two seasons are still ridiculously exaggerated as Lynch played in games last season. Let’s do the old fashioned analysis on a player ignoring stats and let the eyes tell us how he’s playing . Doing this tells us it’s obvious That he’s doing lots of km without the ball and lots of sharp sprints trying to catch opponents breaking away. He’s a liability and has to improve his acceleration over a short distance whether chasing or moving with the footy himself. The latter is becoming rarer and rarer by the game.

 

[tropicaltiger]

A lot of recruiters ignored Jack Graham

17

Jack Graham

Age

26

Ht

181cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.7

4star

K

8.0

3star

HB

6.8

4star

M

2.1

2star

T

6.3

5star

CL

1.8

4star

D

11.8

3star

K

5.3

2star

HB

6.5

4star

M

2.8

3star

T

4.2

5star

CL

1.2

4star

D

14.0

4star

K

6.0

3star

HB

8.0

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

7.0

5star

CL

3.2

5star

in the draft as they thought he was a man child and would not improve that much once he got playing against hardened men and not 18 year old boys.

It looks like the recruiters got it right by letting him slip to mid 50s, however we swooped and grabbed him, and he has been great value for us, but the last couple of years Has been one of our weak Links

 

[Meteoric Rise]

A lot of recruiters ignored Jack Graham in the draft as they thought he was a man child and would not improve that much once he got playing against hardened men and not 18 year old boys.

It looks like the recruiters got it right by letting him slip to mid 50s, however we swooped and grabbed him, and he has been great value for us, but the last couple of years Has been one of our weak Links

This may explain why Graham might plateau from a certain point. It would not explain why he would go backwards in his prime.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

All those figures are exaggerated when our team was winning premierships. So there were retirees like Dave, HoulI, Griggs, Sheds etc etc. which proves my point as what you’re saying is nonsense. Now your previous stats based on JGTI last two seasons are still ridiculously exaggerated as Lynch played in games last season. Let’s do the old fashioned analysis on a player ignoring stats and let the eyes tell us how he’s playing . Doing this tells us it’s obvious That he’s doing lots of km without the ball and lots of sharp sprints trying to catch opponents breaking away. He’s a liability and has to improve his acceleration over a short distance whether chasing or moving with the footy himself. The latter is becoming rarer and rarer by the game.

The with and without figures for JGTI are not exaggerated by Premierships at all. That would only be the case if you played every game in the strong years and missed loads of games in the weaker years. The opposite is the case with JGTI:

2017 5 matches of 25 missed 20

2018 18 matches of 24 missed 6

2019 16 matches of 25 missed 9

2020 16 matches of 21 missed 5

2021 22 matches of 22 missed 0

2022 20 matches of 23 missed 3

2023 12 matches of 15 missed 3


It is really obvious he has missed more matches when the team was stronger than he has when the team was weaker. So you are meowing up the wrong tree here Imposter.

 

[richoplzbreed]

If he is so bad...why in 2022 & 2023 do we win 58% oo our games when he plays and under 30% win rate when he doesn't play?

Try pushing your useless stats on someone else. Too many variables to waste my time putting any credence into that garbage. If tubby is out against the Pies, Brisbane at the Gabba, the Dees, Geelong at Kardinia....... Yet plays against North, WCE, Hawks... then there's the was it Port Adelaide over there after a 6 day turnaround from flying to Perth or Port at the G at full strength whilst they've rested 2 guns, got 2 guns suspended and all their FWD's are either injured or got the flu..... was Lynch playing.......

Get off supercoach and just try watching the bloody game. You'll soon realize he's bloody ordinary.... at best. 7th year mid. At full strength he's not even close to being listed as an emergency for mine. I'd rather see what Ross, Sonsie even Dow can offer with continuity.

 

[TigerImposter]

The with and without figures for JGTI are not exaggerated by Premierships at all. That would only be the case if you played every game in the strong years and missed loads of games in the weaker years. The opposite is the case with JGTI:

2017 5 matches of 25 missed 20

2018 18 matches of 24 missed 6

2019 16 matches of 25 missed 9

2020 16 matches of 21 missed 5

2021 22 matches of 22 missed 0

2022 20 matches of 23 missed 3

2023 12 matches of 15 missed 3


It is really obvious he has missed more matches when the team was stronger than he has when the team was weaker. So you are meowing up the wrong tree here Imposter.

Yeah, but it’s irrelevant as your original stats were 22-23???? This is where the team is in decline. Your stats are useless as there are too many variables as I’ve told you.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Try pushing your useless stats on someone else. Too many variables to waste my time putting any credence into that garbage. If tubby is out against the Pies, Brisbane at the Gabba, the Dees, Geelong at Kardinia....... Yet plays against North, WCE, Hawks... then there's the was it Port Adelaide over there after a 6 day turnaround from flying to Perth or Port at the G at full strength whilst they've rested 2 guns, got 2 guns suspended and all their FWD's are either injured or got the flu..... was Lynch playing.......

Get off supercoach and just try watching the bloody game. You'll soon realize he's bloody ordinary.... at best. 7th year mid. At full strength he's not even close to being listed as an emergency for mine. I'd rather see what Ross, Sonsie even Dow can offer with continuity.

Try pushing your useless opinions on someone else then.

Here is who JGTI has played his games against...do you see anything that troubles you there? I certainly don't.

 

[tropicaltiger]

This may explain why Graham might plateau from a certain point. It would not explain why he would go backwards in his prime.

He is not in his prime mate. He might only be 25 but he has the body of a 33-year-old with the bad shoulders x 2 hammy issues and now turf toe and general wear and tear and he ain’t getting any faster plus the rules have made him almost obsolete. The once great tackling machine is now someone who struggles to get from contest to contest.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

He is not in his prime mate. He might only be 25 but he has the body of a 33-year-old with the bad shoulders x 2 hammy issues and now turf toe and general wear and tear and he ain’t getting any faster plus the rules have made him almost obsolete. The once great tackling machine is now someone who struggles to get from contest to contest.

It may be true but how would any of us know the difference between that and that there is some other explanation for his recent dip in form? I will say again, if he was so bad from a certain point, then wouldn't the team performance improve when he was missing and decline when he plays? The exact opposite is what the objective facts are showing, and not by a narrow margin either.

 

[TigerImposter]

Try pushing your useless opinions on someone else then.

Here is who JGTI has played his games against...do you see anything that troubles you there? I certainly don't.

View attachment 1727772

Big deal MR its just more useless information. Amazing how you’re avoiding the facts he’s bloody slow and a liability.

 

[tropicaltiger]

It may be true but how would any of us know the difference between that and that there is some other explanation for his recent dip in form. I will say again, if he was so bad from a certain point, then wouldn't the team performance improve when he was missing and decline when he plays? The exact opposite is what the objective facts are showing, and not by a narrow margin either.

You are providing stats not facts….. facts are something that are 100% bullet-proof, and seen with the eye, without any fear of contradiction…….not some theory with questionable numbers and figures and fanciful educated guessing and pumped up scraps to make someone look good

 

[Old M8]

Remember “no Deledio no Richmond”? We couldn’t win games without Lids playing.

Won 3 of the next 4 flags without him. Biggest waste of time stat I’ve seen to justify the shit Graham pumps out each week rather than anything actually useful.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

You are providing stats not facts….. facts are something that are 100% bullet-proof, and seen with the eye, without any fear of contradiction…….not some theory with questionable numbers and figures and fanciful educated guessing and pumped up scraps to make someone look good

What I have provided is 100% factual. You may draw different inferences than I do from those facts but they are facts nonetheless.

There is nothing questionable about "numbers and figures provided." They are a matter of easily accessible record.

Across Graham's career the team wins 66% of the games he plays and 60% of the games he misses.

Since the start of 2022 we win 58% when he plays and 29% when he doesn't play.

This year we have won 59% when he has played, and actually lose all 3 games he missed.


You may not like those facts, but you cannot deny they are facts. You may not think they prove Graham has improved the team when he has played, but these facts certainly do not lend themselves to him weakening the team when he has played.

I don't get why people are getting so upset over a few simple facts. I didn't make them up.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Remember “no Deledio no Richmond”? We couldn’t win games without Lids playing.

Won 3 of the next 4 flags without him. Biggest waste of time stat I’ve seen to justify the s**t Graham pumps out each week rather than anything actually useful.

Deledio 110w 128 losses in his time at Richmond. 46% win rate.

Overall during his career Richmond went 114w 148l. 44% win rate.

Without Deledio Richmond went 4w 20l. 17% win rate.

So there was a big difference in the win rate with and without Deledio. But when he left after 2016, Richmond added Prestia, Caddy, Nankervis, Bolton, Graham, then the next year Baker and Bolton, as well as debuting Butler in 2017, and players like Lambert, Castagna, Broad finding their feet at AFL level. So the sides Deledio played in were a lot lot different to those Richmond fielded after he departed.

Similarly we could go from strength to strength if we released Graham and added several important players and several other existing players came good at the same time. But this does not in any way establish he has not generally improved the team when he has played up until now.