Player Watch #34: Jack Graham - MOVED TO WCE - PICK 42 Received

[Coach_Required]

He’s still a spud. Conditions suited him. When it was dry he was a total liability. We’re not going anywhere with him.

Anyone in the club not a spud in your eyes?

 

[TigerImposter]

Anyone in the club not a spud in your eyes?

Go through the threads and try and keep an open mind.

 

[Truetiger]

How about we focus on his match vs the swans rather than more negative comments. Premiership player 2017/20, Equal 2nd in our B&F 2021. Better then anyone on here thats for sure 19pos and 2 important goals last night Rain hail or Shine.

 

[tropicaltiger]

As usual, the idiots on here got it wrong

Hindsight post......Graham poor last weeks and average early v Swans, then lifted to great heights..... so here's my hindsight.... Jack Graham should have been dropped instead of Ross and then JGTI promoted as the sub.
same result most likely.

 

[captain blood 17]

How about we focus on his match vs the swans rather than more negative comments. Premiership player 2017/20, Equal 2nd in our B&F 2021. Better then anyone on here thats for sure 19pos and 2 important goals last night Rain hail or Shine.

He got lucky it rained bro. Haven't you heard?

 

[lvt06]

Imagine watching Richmond play for the last 6 or so years, yet still not understanding players have certain roles and positions they have to stand / run to. JGTI is that person for us. Defensive pressure and positioning through gut running, before he gets any touches.

 

[Grrr]

It always takes Graham a long time to run himself into form. He has hit 19-20 possessions 3 games out of 4. When he is doing that he is playing his part. Is he best 15, maybe not, best 22 yes. He seems to be running into shape after a slow start. But then again, the wet helped....

 

[tropicaltiger]

Imagine watching Richmond play for the last 6 or so years, yet still not understanding players have certain roles and positions they have to stand / run to. JGTI is that person for us. Defensive pressure and positioning through gut running, before he gets any touches.

Not really, S T A N D, 666, Kick ins can now land forward of centre, strong brutal tackles now scrutinized

Graham needs to be getting it 18+ and scoreboard assists or otherwise his role can now be dismantled with smart coaching and skill, they now switch play, chip chip chip, bypass/go around the spare and booming kicks like Balta and Short can by pass zones.

credit to jack tho..... himself, brando, kaos and macintosh have run thousands of unrewarded kms for the sake of our club and 3 flags says well done boys.

 

[GhostofJimJess]

Let's see if he can back it up before people get on their high horse defending him like
He never deserved to get dropped for consistently being s**t.

Let's see if he can back it up before people get on their high horse defending him like
He never deserved to get dropped for consistently being s**t.

I can hear it now though - "but we're only playing the Eagles"

 

[Meteoric Rise]

OK, let's put our players under the microscope and see whose presence or absence appears to make most difference.

Will look at signifiant players since the beginning of Graham's debut season 2017.

Richmond overall record in that time = 100 wins 4 draws 52 losses, let's call it 102w 54l. 65% win rate

I will only count games where the player has played 50% or greater game time - or very near 50% -Balta for eg played 49% in 2 wins so I counted those. And for players who debuted after 2017 I will only count Richmond's record from the season they debuted. At this stage I have ignored 2023 debutantes as the samples are likely to be too small.

Player	Player W/L record since 2017	Win % since 2017	Richmond win % since 2017 or other debut season where applicable	Richmond win % record in games this player has missed since start of debut season	Player' with/without factor(Column 3 divided by column 5)
M Rioli 2021-	13.5-7.5	64	50	43	1.49
T Lynch 2019-	54.5w-29.5l	65	61	46	1.41
N Broad 2017-	81.5-34.5	70	65	51	1.37
D Martin 2017-	88-41	68	65	52	1.31
D Prestia 2017-	74.5-32.5	70	65	56	1.25
N Vlastuin 2017-	83-39	68	65	56	1.21
B Miller 2021-	11.5-9.5	55	50	48	1.16
J Riewoldt 2017-	91-47	66	65	61	1.08
D Grimes 2017-	94-49	66	65	62	1.06
K McIntosh 2017-	86.5-44.5	66	65	62	1.06
I Soldo 2017-	32-15	68	65	64	1.06
J Graham 2017-	73-37	66	65	63	1.05
J Short 2017-	87-45	66	65	63	1.05
D Rioli 2017-	88-46	66	65	64	1.03
T Nankervis 2017-	73-39	67	65	66	1.02
T Cotchin 2017-	83.5-45.5	65	65	68	0.96
N Balta 2018-	48-30	62	64	68	0.91
J Clarke 2022-	6-6	50	54	56	0.89
L Baker 2018-	64-39	62	64	71	0.87
S Bolton 2017-	65-41	62	65	74	0.83
M Pickett 2019-	41-31	57	61	69	0.82
J Ross	27.5-23.5	54	61	67	0.81
T Dow 2020-	5.5-6.5	46	56	58	0.79
S Ryan 2021-	5-8	38	50	53	0.72
Hugoralph 2021-	11.5-16.5	41	50	58	0.71
R Mansell 2021-	9.5-14.5	40	50	57	0.70
N Cumberland 2022-	4.5-9.5	32	54	66	0.48

Now of course there are anomalies in this, so it is of course not a pure order of merit. Players like Short, Baker, Balta, Bolton missed selection quite a bit in the strongest years that lie within their samples, but became permanent fixtures in the team during the weaker period, fully explaining their negative factors. Cotchin was rested at times against weaker teams and stood up to play when we were undermanned and he wasn't 100% which I think would explain his slightly negative factor. Pickett only played 1 game of the strong 2019 season which is counted in his sample and this affects him. Miller the opposite played just one game in the weaker 2021 season which counts in his sample, partly explaining his strong factor. Soldo played more games when we were stronger, less in our weaker years.

This table does appear to show how important Lynch, Broad, Vlastuin, Prestia and Martin have been for us. It also shows though that unfashionable role players like Graham and McIntosh improve the team when they are in it. In my opinion, the table does give some very strong clues as to why Maurice for eg is preferred over Cumberland, who kicks a lot more goals.

TigerImposter Some players are just better at helping the team win than others. And they are not always the players you would think of. Maurice Rioli and Broad in particular may be a lot more important player than people realise.

 

[TigerImposter]

OK, let's put our players under the microscope and see whose presence or absence appears to make most difference.

Will look at signifiant players since the beginning of Graham's debut season 2017.

Richmond overall record in that time = 100 wins 4 draws 52 losses, let's call it 102w 54l. 65% win rate

I will only count games where the player has played 50% or greater game time - or very near 50% -Balta for eg played 49% in 2 wins so I counted those. And for players who debuted after 2017 I will only count Richmond's record from the season they debuted. At this stage I have ignored 2023 debutantes as the samples are likely to be too small.

Player	Player W/L record since 2017	Win % since 2017	Richmond win % since 2017 or other debut season where applicable	Richmond win % record in games this player has missed since start of debut season	Player' with/without factor(Column 3 divided by column 5)
M Rioli 2021-	13.5-7.5	64	50	43	1.49
T Lynch 2019-	54.5w-29.5l	65	61	46	1.41
N Broad 2017-	81.5-34.5	70	65	51	1.37
D Martin 2017-	88-41	68	65	52	1.31
D Prestia 2017-	74.5-32.5	70	65	56	1.25
N Vlastuin 2017-	83-39	68	65	56	1.21
B Miller 2021-	11.5-9.5	55	50	48	1.16
J Riewoldt 2017-	91-47	66	65	61	1.08
D Grimes 2017-	94-49	66	65	62	1.06
K McIntosh 2017-	86.5-44.5	66	65	62	1.06
I Soldo 2017-	32-15	68	65	64	1.06
J Graham 2017-	73-37	66	65	63	1.05
J Short 2017-	87-45	66	65	63	1.05
D Rioli 2017-	88-46	66	65	64	1.03
T Nankervis 2017-	73-39	67	65	66	1.02
T Cotchin 2017-	83.5-45.5	65	65	68	0.96
N Balta 2018-	48-30	62	64	68	0.91
J Clarke 2022-	6-6	50	54	56	0.89
L Baker 2018-	64-39	62	64	71	0.87
S Bolton 2017-	65-41	62	65	74	0.83
M Pickett 2019-	41-31	57	61	69	0.82
J Ross	27.5-23.5	54	61	67	0.81
T Dow 2020-	5.5-6.5	46	56	58	0.79
S Ryan 2021-	5-8	38	50	53	0.72
Hugoralph 2021-	11.5-16.5	41	50	58	0.71
R Mansell 2021-	9.5-14.5	40	50	57	0.70
N Cumberland 2022-	4.5-9.5	32	54	66	0.48

Now of course there are anomalies in this, so it is of course not a pure order of merit. Players like Short, Baker, Balta, Bolton missed selection quite a bit in the strongest years that lie within their samples, but became permanent fixtures in the team during the weaker period, fully explaining their negative factors. Cotchin was rested at times against weaker teams and stood up to play when we were undermanned and he wasn't 100% which I think would explain his slightly negative factor. Pickett only played 1 game of the strong 2019 season which is counted in his sample and this affects him. Miller the opposite played just one game in the weaker 2021 season which counts in his sample, partly explaining his strong factor. Soldo played more games when we were stronger, less in our weaker years.

This table does appear to show how important Lynch, Broad, Vlastuin, Prestia and Martin have been for us. It also shows though that unfashionable role players like Graham and McIntosh improve the team when they are in it. In my opinion, the table does give some very strong clues as to why Maurice for eg is preferred over Cumberland, who kicks a lot more goals.

TigerImposter Some players are just better at helping the team win than others. And they are not always the players you would think of. Maurice Rioli and Broad in particular may be a lot more important player than people realise.

I admire your efforts, but you have too much time on your hands.
How many of JGTI games were in the wet?
Remember variables my friend.

Variables

www.abs.gov.au

 

[richoplzbreed]

I'm trying to draw on sensitivity training in commenting on the recent derailing of this thread by meteoric stats.... Can't put my finger on why but I can't help but think of the movie Revenge of the Nerds!

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I admire your efforts, but you have too much time on your hands.
How many of JGTI games were in the wet?
Remember variables my friend.

Variables

www.abs.gov.au

Isn't it funny how your variables seem to run in favour of players who keep getting picked when you think they shouldn't be....

And against Noah Cumberland who certain posters on here think should be picked more than he is.....

People wonder why certain selections occur and their favourite kick chasers are eschewed by selectors for their own less favoured "out of form" role players and pressure players. I give them the answer on a plate, and the richoplzbreed 's of the world hate it because it exposes their lack of understanding of what makes the team win. Which I love.

You make the team win, you are in. You make the team lose, then be sexy in the VFL friend.

 

[TigerImposter]

Isn't it funny how your variables seem to run in favour of players who keep getting picked when you think they shouldn't be....

And against Noah Cumberland who certain posters on here think should be picked more than he is.....

People wonder why certain selections occur and their favourite kick chasers are eschewed by selectors for their own less favoured "out of form" role players and pressure players. I give them the answer on a plate, and the richoplzbreed 's of the world hate it because it exposes their lack of understanding of what makes the team win. Which I love.

You make the team win, you are in. You make the team lose, then be sexy in the VFL friend.

Cumberland and JGTI are both not best 22.
That’s my opinion and I will eventually be right on JGTI. No bs dramatised stat is going to cover his fat lazy butt.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Cumberland and JGTI are both not best 22.
That’s my opinion and I will eventually be right on JGTI. No bs dramatised stat is going to cover his fat lazy butt.

Haha you think the stats are dramtic and richoplzbreed thinks they are the work of a nerd. How many drama queen nerds do you know?

Variance does occur within statistical samples, of course it does. Your trouble is the main variance - how many games you played when the team was strong compared to when it was weak - clearly works against Jack Graham. He missed more games in our stronger years 2017-20, averaging just 14 games per season across that period and played more games from 2021 averaging missing about 2 games per season since then.

 

[tropicaltiger]

I haven't got the exact stats %. but my eyeballs and brain tell me that when Dustin and Shai are the best two players on the ground we win approx 99% of our games whether Jack Graham

17

Jack Graham

Age

26

Ht

181cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.7

4star

K

8.0

3star

HB

6.8

4star

M

2.1

2star

T

6.3

5star

CL

1.8

4star

D

11.8

3star

K

5.3

2star

HB

6.5

4star

M

2.8

3star

T

4.2

5star

CL

1.2

4star

D

14.0

4star

K

6.0

3star

HB

8.0

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

7.0

5star

CL

3.2

5star

plays or not.

stats smats....it's all about our better players performing and executing better than the other teams players on the day/night. injuries, umpire adjudication and role players also factored in to a certain degree.

 

[TigerImposter]

Haha you think the stats are dramtic and richoplzbreed thinks they are the work of a nerd. How many drama queen nerds do you know?

Variance does occur within statistical samples, of course it does. Your trouble is the main variance - how many games you played when the team was strong compared to when it was weak - clearly works against Jack Graham. He missed more games in our stronger years 2017-20, averaging just 14 games per season across that period and played more games from 2021 averaging missing about 2 games per season since then.

And your point being?

 

[Meteoric Rise]

And your point being?

My point should be clear here imposter. If the team performs better with you in it than out of it, you get selected, no matter how unfashionable a player you might be. Moneyball changed the world mate. Eye test dinosaurs like you are now extinct in recruiting and selection panels. It is all about what makes the team win.

 

[SunshineBoy]

How about we focus on his match vs the swans rather than more negative comments. Premiership player 2017/20, Equal 2nd in our B&F 2021. Better then anyone on here thats for sure 19pos and 2 important goals last night Rain hail or Shine.

No one else kicks the goal to draw us level perfect kick

 

[TigerImposter]

My point should be clear here imposter. If the team performs better with you in it than out of it, you get selected, no matter how unfashionable a player you might be. Moneyball changed the world mate. Eye test dinosaurs like you are now extinct in recruiting and selection panels. It is all about what makes the team win.

We’ve been through this as it’s anecdotal evidence due to the number of variables. There are just way too many controlling and in uncontrollable factors.
This discussion is pointless and a waste of my BF time.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I haven't got the exact stats %. but my eyeballs and brain tell me that when Dustin and Shai are the best two players on the ground we win approx 99% of our games whether Jack Graham plays or not.

stats smats....it's all about our better players performing and executing better than the other teams players on the day/night. injuries, umpire adjudication and role players also factor ed in to a certain degree.

The club(through Hardwick at the least) has even come out publicly and stated that the stars play better due to the presence of the role players. And despite being spoon fed the truth, people still are not having it.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

We’ve been through this as it’s anecdotal evidence due to the number of variables. There are just way too many controlling and in uncontrollable factors.
This discussion is pointless and a waste of my BF time.

Whole facts are not "anecdotal evidence" imposter, what a strange take.

There are indeed many variables, but our selectors would be across all of those. This is why the likes of Bolton and Balta are elevated above their standings in my limited table, and Soldo for eg is relegated at selection compared to his standing. But the players who have been more or less constantly selected throughout the period when fit, such as McIntosh and Graham, their standings don't lie. One day, the players who replace them when they are unavailable may become better than them. But as yet, that day has not arrived. So if you want our best 22 on the park, they are in it.

 

[SunshineBoy]

Graham and Ross are the two purest kickers in the side at the moment technically correct

 

[TigerImposter]

Whole facts are not "anecdotal evidence" imposter, what a strange take.

There are indeed many variables, but our selectors would be across all of those. This is why the likes of Bolton and Balta are elevated above their standings in my limited table, and Soldo for eg is relegated at selection compared to his standing. But the players who have been more or less constantly selected throughout the period when fit, such as McIntosh and Graham, their standing don't lie. One day, the players who replace them when they are unavailable may become better than them. But as yet, that day has not arrived. So if you want our best 22 on the park, they are in it.

Here we go.
when JGTI started his career he was running at 100% W/L and high into the 90% by 2018. Which drums up your % and you accrediting him being responsible for it as the team plays better with him In it.
Now it’s 2023 yet his W/L percentage has plummeted to I think you said 67% which is a drastic fall. So by your logic or nonsense then JGTI has dropped off since 2017 where he started off at 100%. Stats can be manipulated to suit any argument and my manipulative behaviour of them says JGTI isn’t really the JGTI

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Here we go.
when JGTI started his career he was running at 100% W/L and high into the 90% by 2018. Which drums up your % and you accrediting him being responsible for it as the team plays better with him In it.
Now it’s 2023 yet his W/L percentage has plummeted to I think you said 67% which is a drastic fall. So by your logic or nonsense then JGTI has dropped off since 2017 where he started off at 100%. Stats can be manipulated to suit any argument and my manipulative behaviour of them says JGTI isn’t really the JGTI

You are proof that stats can be misused to suit a pre-determined position.

Richmond's record in 2021-22-23 is better with Jack Graham in the team than it is without him in the team. Which supports the selectors picking him whenever he is fit, does it not?