Expansion A third team in Queensland? AFL acknowledges QLD3 as a 20th licence option

[GC2015]

Thoughts? Would you be for or against Queensland (likely Brisbane) receiving the 20th licence into the AFL? Why/Why not?

For context, it's looking increasingly likely that a new 50-60k oval stadium will be built in Brisbane for the upcoming 2032 Olympics and this team would be an obvious fit for the second tenant of that stadium. Many indicators do seem to be there in terms of current/future population, the current/projected trajectory of AFL popularity growth, massive growth in junior participation rates, high end draftable talent coming out of Queensland, future major infrastructure for the Olympics, etc. There's currently approximately 4 million people living in south east Queensland (2.5m in Brisbane) and that's expected to balloon to 6 million in the early 2040s, with the entire state of Queensland surpassing 7.2 million by that stage.

 

[Philhawk]

Oh great. More stupid academy zones.

 

[Colonial]

*cough Canberra *cough

 

[Cmarsh]

He just said "never say never". That's not an actual plan for a third QLD team. Rather just a thought bubble that an upstart sports news outlet has taken and run with.

 

[BF Tiger]

I’m betting the third Qld team will win a flag before the second.

 

[Canberra Pear]

He just said "never say never". That's not an actual plan for a third QLD team. Rather just a thought bubble that an upstart sports news outlet has taken and run with.

Spot on. The actual article was interesting, but they pulled the one quote that meant very little and made it their focus.

Also "never say never" still implies not soon. Not sure how they linked it to the 20th team. It surely just leaves the door open down the track.

The Lions are doing well. But the new stadium should be enough to soak up that growth in the short term..

Going from 35k seats a fortnight to 60k seats a fortnight in the next decade will be massive. But going from 35k to 120k seats is too big of an ask.

 

[The Feeder Club]

Laughable. The money sink that is the gold coast suns is more likely to be shut down than putting a 3rd team up there.

 

[GC2015]

He just said "never say never". That's not an actual plan for a third QLD team. Rather just a thought bubble that an upstart sports news outlet has taken and run with.

Maybe so. It's obviously something they haven't ruled out. Just remember, Brisbane is the only major capital city in Australia that doesn't have two AFL teams and we know a new world class oval stadium is on its way for the Olympics. I'm sure the Queensland government would like the idea of having weekly events at the new stadium.

 

[The Nostradamus]

surely a 3rd WA team before a 3rd qld team

 

[Elixuh]

Oh great. More stupid academy zones.

Just let it happen

 

[1990crow]

North Brisbane to Sunshine Coast is definitely going to get a team at some point in the next 30 years.

Now? Unsure.

 

[1990crow]

surely a 3rd WA team before a 3rd qld team

Disagree. Population of Queensland exceeds WA and helps AFL infiltrate rugby market more.

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

Let's see what Lions attendance and support are like in a bad run before looking another team in SEQ.
If they largely hold up, maybe its not as ridiculous as it first seems. Surely quite some time off though, maybe team 24 not 20.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

People will push up Southport, but I wonder if the AFL will have its eye on Maroochydore or Maloolaba instead?

Has its own airport, smack bang in the middle of Caloundra, Noosa and the rest of the Sunshine Coast.

There’s a shit tonne of Ex-pat Vic’s up there, plus you’d get a huge influx of visitors for games who would love an excuse to spend a weekend up there.

 

[GC2015]

Let's see what Lions attendance and support are like in a bad run before looking another team in SEQ.
If they largely hold up, maybe its not as ridiculous as it first seems. Surely quite some time off though, maybe team 24 not 20.

That's the beauty fo the two-team per city model. You aren't so reliant on one team to do all the heavy lifting and everything falling flat on its face when the Lions inevitably drop off (like we saw 10-15 years ago). Imagine how much footy would have suffered in WA had West Coast been the only team based there over the last 3-5 years while they sat in the bottom 4 on the ladder? Similarly, how much would footy have suffered in SA had the Crows been the only team in town over since 2018?

A second team in Brisbane mitigates that risk and gives footy fans within the third most populated city of Australia an opportunity to highly remain engaged in the sport when the Lions drop off. Now obviously there's going to be times when both teams miss the finals (see WA teams last year) and there will be times where both make the finals (Sydney teams last year), but on average there should be far less seasons that don't involve at least one Brisbane team competing in September and that's really positive for the growth of the game in Queensland. This might paint the picture a bit better:

Years not involving a Sydney team in the finals since 2004: 2/20
Years not involving an Adelaide team in the finals since 2004: 5/20
Years not involving a Perth team in the finals since 2004: 5/20
Years not involving a Brisbane team in the finals since 2004: 13/20

North Brisbane to Sunshine Coast is definitely going to get a team at some point in the next 30 years.

Now? Unsure.

If they are serious about this, I'd say the plan would be to coincide this with the 2032 Olympics. That gives the AFL the opportunity to leverage the QLD government because they will want post-Olympic legacies like weekly AFL games at the new 50-60k stadium. So the question isn't whether they should expand into Brisbane2/Sunshine Coast in 2025, but rather should they do it in 2030-32.

 

[1990crow]

People will push up Southport, but I wonder if the AFL will have its eye on Maroochydore or Maloolaba instead?

Has its own airport, smack bang in the middle of Caloundra, Noosa and the rest of the Sunshine Coast.

There’s a shit tonne of Ex-pat Vic’s up there, plus you’d get a huge influx of visitors for games who would love an excuse to spend a weekend up there.

Sunshine Coast is the obvious answer there easily. Southport would take Gold Coast supporters, and there's not enough of them as it is.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

Looking to put in a new club just because there’s a new stadium is peak stupidity. Talk about cart before horse.

Last year - a premiership year, no less - Brisbane drew 339k to the Gabba in the H&A season.

Capacity was 407k (37k per game) so they’ve got a bit of work to get to that.

60k stadium would be 660k capacity, or roughly double what they get now. That’s a decades-long project, to double your attendance.

Then they want to drop in another club with 660k capacity?

Absolute pipe dream. Let’s talk about it in 40 years.

 

[Corn Cobbers]

Canberra, Northern Australia and a 3rd side in Perth are surely higher priorities

GC have struggled all the way

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[Strapping Young Lad]

Absolute pipe dream. Let’s talk about it in 40 years.

I reckon you’ve got 10 max before it becomes a thing.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Maybe so. It's obviously something they haven't ruled out. Just remember, Brisbane is the only major capital city in Australia that doesn't have two AFL teams and we know a new world class oval stadium is on its way for the Olympics. I'm sure the Queensland government would like the idea of having weekly events at the new stadium.

Brisbane is also the only major capital city in Australia with a city of 700 000 people next to it that already has a team. I think Canberra should be the priority.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

People will push up Southport

For what? Taking over the Suns?

but I wonder if the AFL will have its eye on Maroochydore or Maloolaba instead?

Has its own airport, smack bang in the middle of Caloundra, Noosa and the rest of the Sunshine Coast.

There’s a shit tonne of Ex-pat Vic’s up there, plus you’d get a huge influx of visitors for games who would love an excuse to spend a weekend up there.

I agree, I think Maroochydore will eventually be a better option than Brisbane 2. Producing quite a few footballers for our academy too.

 

[Outtatym]

I reckon you’ve got 10 max before it becomes a thing.

Pretty much. AFL don't have 40 years to waste on a bye every week, gotta maximise Tasmania's entry

 

[Cleric]

No. Two is enough. I wouldn't want to see a third in SA or WA.
Let's look at reducing a Vic team or two.

 

[GC2015]

I reckon you’ve got 10 max before it becomes a thing.

Agreed. The AFL won't want an uneven amount of teams for too long and if it hasn't already happened, then it will definitely be on the agenda by the time we reach 2035. In reality, Queensland is becoming too enticing for the AFL to ignore and that looks like it's only going to intensify with both the Lions and Suns having young + talented lists. Plus, they wouldn't want the NRL to get too much of a hold on the northern Brisbane / Sunshine Coast market now that the Dolphins have been around for a few years already.

Brisbane is also the only major capital city in Australia with a city of 700 000 people next to it that already has a team. I think Canberra should be the priority.

I agree, I think Maroochydore will eventually be a better option than Brisbane 2. Producing quite a few footballers for our academy too.

The Sunshine Coast currently has a population of around 400k people and is growing really fast (more than double the rate of Canberra). Canberra has a population of around 450k. The Sunny Coast is very likely to overtake Canberra in terms of population in the next 10-20 years. Then you've got the 1 million+ people who live in northern Brisbane and an extra 450k in between Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast in an area called Moreton Bay. So you're essentially dealing with a market of around 2 million people for a QLD3 team.

2 million people in northern corridor Brisbane vs 450k people in Canberra. It's a pretty easy decision from my perspective.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

The Sunshine Coast currently has a population of around 400k people and is growing really fast (more than double the rate of Canberra).

Nope.





At least make an effort to look up the stats before making claims like this.