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Delisted Adrian Dodoro - On leave Aug ‘24. Parted ways Nov ‘24. Lodged a dispute with FairWork. Paid out. Gone. #putoutyourjackets

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Mr Mojo Risin said:
2nd round is atrocious?

2nd Round Selections
2013: Zach Merrett
2014: None
2015: Morgan, Redman
2016: Ridley, Begley
2017: None
2018: Mosquito
2019: Jones, Bryan
2020: Eyre
2021: None

Let's say it's too early to call the last couple of years (so Eyre).

Our 2nd round hit rate is pretty damn good.
Click to expand...
A few things I didn't mention explicitly as I was typing from my phone last night:

a) I'm basing my analysis on the entire data set from 2008-2021 for the entire competition, and making comparisons with what other teams have got from their drafting
b) that means drafting a solid contributor and trading them out still counts as a 'hit'
c) the definitions for each "round" are actually thresholds at picks 1-18, 19-36, 37-54, 55-72, and 73+. Because figuring out the start and end of each round with bid matching etc inflating the first round out to 35 picks is far too much effort.
d) the metric I'm using is their career games averaged over the number of seasons they've been in the competition. For a hit, I was going for 12+ game average. 8-12 would be regarded as 'okay'. This means that for more recent draftees, and especially young talls, they really haven't shown enough yet to count either way. For players who have retired, the post-retirement seasons also count, which could drag down the average of earlier draftees if they retired early. I'm mostly okay with that though.
e) the number of players over that threshold divided by the number of picks taken gives the hit rate.

I'll pull it up properly later and put the results but it's somewhere between terrible and extremely average depending on which metrics you're looking at. The only area we consistently do well in is the first round, with an 83% strike rate. Not every team does that.
 
Lore said:
A few things I didn't mention explicitly as I was typing from my phone last night:

a) I'm basing my analysis on the entire data set from 2008-2021 for the entire competition, and making comparisons with what other teams have got from their drafting
b) that means drafting a solid contributor and trading them out still counts as a 'hit'
c) the definitions for each "round" are actually thresholds at picks 1-18, 19-36, 37-54, 55-72, and 73+. Because figuring out the start and end of each round with bid matching etc inflating the first round out to 35 picks is far too much effort.
d) the metric I'm using is their career games averaged over the number of seasons they've been in the competition. For a hit, I was going for 12+ game average. 8-12 would be regarded as 'okay'. This means that for more recent draftees, and especially young talls, they really haven't shown enough yet to count either way.
e) the number of players over that threshold divided by the number of picks taken gives the hit rate.

I'll pull it up properly later and put the results but it's somewhere between terrible and extremely average depending on which metrics you're looking at. The only area we consistently do well in is the first round, with an 83% strike rate. Not every team does that.
Click to expand...
Right ok that all makes sense. Not sure I agree it's the best way to determine whether our selections themselves were bad, but it is interesting.

I chose the time period based on your response to citizen-erased.

I'm also basing it on rounds and on ability shown in the AFL, because it's pretty hard to predict a players injury future at draft time for the most part.

But let's look at the players from 2008 we took.

2ndRoundDrafts.png
(Avg Games Played based on AFL Draft Picks Broken Down by Pick Number - Draftguru)

A really poor three years 2010-2012 makes it much worse, but those picks were later than normal.

2008 to now is about a 50% pass rate based on games.
2013 to now is about a 57% pass rate based on games.

If we look at it further, the years we have taken multiple second round selections have each provided a pass, but most also a fail. It makes me wonder if we were happier to take a bigger risk because we had multiple selections.

I also wouldn't call Jackson Merrett a large fail.

Regardless of whether you think we haven't been great in the second round, I personally don't think we've been atrocious, other than 2010-2012 where there were extenuating circumstances with the introduction of new teams.

As an aside, I do have Nick Bryan as a question mark, but with the games played and goals provided according to wikipedia, he's clearly a big pass.

NickBryan.png

😂
 
Mr Mojo Risin said:
Right ok that all makes sense. Not sure I agree it's the best way to determine whether our selections themselves were bad, but it is interesting.

I chose the time period based on your response to citizen-erased.

I'm also basing it on rounds and on ability shown in the AFL, because it's pretty hard to predict a players injury future at draft time for the most part.

But let's look at the players from 2008 we took.

View attachment 1509241
(Avg Games Played based on AFL Draft Picks Broken Down by Pick Number - Draftguru)

A really poor three years 2010-2012 makes it much worse, but those picks were later than normal.

2008 to now is about a 50% pass rate based on games.
2013 to now is about a 57% pass rate based on games.

If we look at it further, the years we have taken multiple second round selections have each provided a pass, but most also a fail. It makes me wonder if we were happier to take a bigger risk because we had multiple selections.

I also wouldn't call Jackson Merrett a large fail.

Regardless of whether you think we haven't been great in the second round, I personally don't think we've been atrocious, other than 2010-2012 where there were extenuating circumstances with the introduction of new teams.

As an aside, I do have Nick Bryan as a question mark, but with the games played and goals provided according to wikipedia, he's clearly a big pass.

View attachment 1509252

😂
Click to expand...

how bout his position?
 

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Mr Mojo Risin said:
Right ok that all makes sense. Not sure I agree it's the best way to determine whether our selections themselves were bad, but it is interesting.

I chose the time period based on your response to citizen-erased.

I'm also basing it on rounds and on ability shown in the AFL, because it's pretty hard to predict a players injury future at draft time for the most part.

But let's look at the players from 2008 we took.

View attachment 1509241
(Avg Games Played based on AFL Draft Picks Broken Down by Pick Number - Draftguru)

A really poor three years 2010-2012 makes it much worse, but those picks were later than normal.

2008 to now is about a 50% pass rate based on games.
2013 to now is about a 57% pass rate based on games.

If we look at it further, the years we have taken multiple second round selections have each provided a pass, but most also a fail. It makes me wonder if we were happier to take a bigger risk because we had multiple selections.

I also wouldn't call Jackson Merrett a large fail.

Regardless of whether you think we haven't been great in the second round, I personally don't think we've been atrocious, other than 2010-2012 where there were extenuating circumstances with the introduction of new teams.

As an aside, I do have Nick Bryan as a question mark, but with the games played and goals provided according to wikipedia, he's clearly a big pass.

View attachment 1509252

😂
Click to expand...
This is the entire data set, feel free to make a copy and play around with it;



Code: 
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FoqY5Hl3k5VUI017ugOi44MKwgjVfbTYNcUY44xgEJs/edit#gid=1254995301
 

CODE Sports

CODE Sports
www.codesports.com.au

This is the only bit specifically about Dodoro:
Long-time Essendon list manager Adrian Dodoro has a reputation of being a challenging and wily operator to deal with from the other side of the table. However as one former rival list manager noted, Dodoro wasn’t too bad when he was trying to bring in players, like during the 2017 period when moved with relative haste to acquire Devon Smith, Adam Saad and Jake Stringer.

It was more difficult when another club was looking to prise a player from the Dons, like in 2019 and 2020 respectively when Joe Daniher and Adam Saad were being pursued by rival clubs.
Click to expand...

There are a couple of names named for people who are good to deal with and the other stuff is deidentified/generalised. But still interesting
 
Lore said:

CODE Sports

CODE Sports
www.codesports.com.au

This is the only bit specifically about Dodoro:


There are a couple of names named for people who are good to deal with and the other stuff is deidentified/generalised. But still interesting
Click to expand...

Sounds about right. A lot of the hard to deal with stuff is a hangover from over 10 years ago when he was more likely to back his Sheedy instinct and try and get an impossible result rather than taking the good result after some wrangling. Other clubs also got annoyed with his unrealistic stand dragging out further than they needed to and holding up deals.
As it has gone on he has got better at the game.
 
Can we trade Dodo and his jackets?
 

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If you haven't already done so have a listen to the Lunchtime Catch Up Podcast with Grant and Scott interviewing David King. He does an excellent analysis of Adrian's work over the last decade or so. Well worth a listen.
 
MarkJohnson#1 said:
If you haven't already done so have a listen to the Lunchtime Catch Up Podcast with Grant and Scott interviewing David King. He does an excellent analysis of Adrian's work over the last decade or so. Well worth a listen.
Click to expand...

I think we need to disband the boys club culture and get a new head of recruiting moving forward but Kingy raised some relevant points. Identifying talent with the picks you have available is one thing but has he built a list that works? History would suggest no.
Who would be doing most of the wheeling and dealing trying to entice players like Bowes? Him or Mahoney?
 
ILikeCheese said:
I think we need to disband the boys club culture and get a new head of recruiting moving forward but Kingy raised some relevant points. Identifying talent with the picks you have available is one thing but has he built a list that works? History would suggest no.
Who would be doing most of the wheeling and dealing trying to entice players like Bowes? Him or Mahoney?
Click to expand...
It's a difficult one to answer. I think we have been severely let down by an incompetent coaching department and insufficient structure around training and development for years. It's easy to point fingers at various people within the club but who is ultimately to blame? Hopefully the external review will uncover a bit more but I'm confident Brad Scott with his experience will be able to make some necessary changes to drastically improve our player development.
 

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My perception of Adrian is changing. Had to tolerate our BS through the drug saga that blew up his list. Had to tolerate McKenna, Daniher, Saad and Fanta all leaving at once which basically blew up his list. Now he has to try and make deals without a CEO, during a review after we just sacked our last coach.

Not an ideal environment to attract talent wouldn’t have thought but has still done it historically…
 
MarkJohnson#1 said:
It's a difficult one to answer. I think we have been severely let down by an incompetent coaching department and insufficient structure around training and development for years. It's easy to point fingers at various people within the club but who is ultimately to blame? Hopefully the external review will uncover a bit more but I'm confident Brad Scott with his experience will be able to make some necessary changes to drastically improve our player development.
Click to expand...
Having a mediocre coaching department and a mediocre recruiting department on different pages means you have a footy department problem, because it’s at odds with itself instead of everyone pulling in the same direction.

When your CEO and your board (and your coteries and players) take sides and ultimately sack the coaches every couple of years instead of reconciling the whole place to a shared strategy of what they’re doing and how, you’re going to be a bit ****ed tbh.

The fact that it’s Dodoro who survived every time is not a coincidence, and I don’t think it’s because he’s amazing at his job either.
 

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Delisted Adrian Dodoro - On leave Aug ‘24. Parted ways Nov ‘24. Lodged a dispute with FairWork. Paid out. Gone. #putoutyourjackets

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