AFL R11

[Lensen]

Fun fact. crows have never lost a home game with Tex playing

2011 round 23
2011 round 21
2011 round 10
2011 round 4
2011 round 3
2010 round 19
2010 round 4
2010 round 2
2009 round 19
2009 round 7
2009 round 4
2009 round 2

 

[Parko31]

Taylor Walker is having problems kicking the ball let alone kicking 3 goals.

Time to eat my shoe if he kicks 3.

Fun fact. crows have never lost a home game with Tex playing

2 Scoring shots lst week, r4 the week before he's getting the ball enough let's just hope he converts today

 

[GROTTO]

2011 round 23
2011 round 21
2011 round 10
2011 round 4
2011 round 3
2010 round 19
2010 round 4
2010 round 2
2009 round 19
2009 round 7
2009 round 4
2009 round 2

Adelaide Oval.

 

[Lensen]

Adelaide Oval.

My bad, I thought when you said home game you meant home game

 

[GROTTO]

2 Scoring shots lst week, r4 the week before he's getting the ball enough let's just hope he converts today

He has shanked a lot of his kicks, however what you are saying is correct. He is getting a lot of the ball. He kicked well in the SANFL and had come of games kicking small bags of 3 or 4 goals I think, so it is mental not physical that he cant kick well.

 

[GROTTO]

Taken the Hawks HH with the sportsbet special, needed to get some confidence back after a tough few matches. Hawks should lead at some stage today.

 

[GROTTO]

I had read online that there is the LeCras coefficient factor that is when he plays the Eagles win the majority of their games. Im sure I had read that it was like 60%

Can someone clarify for me this? I think this year they have won all of them.

Just realised that the Eagles have lost 5 of their past 6 games, punctuated by the flat track bully win over the GWS.

 

[Awesomeau]

How does everyone like the Hawks goal-scorers odds?

Gunston and/or Roughead 4 or more at 2.55 seems value to me?

 

[GROTTO]

How does everyone like the Hawks goal-scorers odds?

Gunston and/or Roughead 4 or more at 2.55 seems value to me?

Where is that?

 

[BloodRet]

How does everyone like the Hawks goal-scorers odds?

Gunston and/or Roughead 4 or more at 2.55 seems value to me?

where is that at?

 

[BloodRet]

Bets for today (all with sportsbet)

GC H2H @ 2.40 (if they lead at any qr money back)
First team to 50 pts GC @ 2.20
Leading team goal kicker for GC Charlie Dixon @ 14.00
Need Freo to win by 15.5+ pts and Hawks by 40+ as last legs of multi @ 2.44
GWS lowest scoring team of round @ 7.00
Need gc to win by 15.5+ pts and freo to win as last legs of multi @ 19.34
Need freo to win as last leg of multi @ 2.15
3 or more goals Jack Gunston @ 1.61
4 or more goals Roughead @ 2.55

 

[sneak]

0.5u pavlich over 2.5goals @2.05

 

[happy punter]

Suns +11.5 over Crows @ 1.95 (2 unit)

 

[Awesomeau]

where is that at?

Sportsbet.

Those were two separate bets to clarify. Gunston 4 or more at 2.55, and Roughead 4 or more at 2.55.
I'm just wondering if either/both are value? Roughead kicked 5 last year, and 6 in 2012 vs GWS, and we know how well GWS defend talls (not at all).

 

[GROTTO]

Sportsbet.

Those were two separate bets to clarify. Gunston 4 or more at 2.55, and Roughead 4 or more at 2.55.
I'm just wondering if either/both are value? Roughead kicked 5 last year, and 6 in 2012 vs GWS, and we know how well GWS defend talls (not at all).

Oh I thought it was Gunston and/or Roughie 4 or more at $2.55

 

[Spads]

That's true. But easy to say in hindsight.

For example, If I see a team that is priced at $1.20 and my numbers say they should be $1.10, then I will go big on it (Max 5U bets for me). Will probably spread them across a few multi's, or play the line.

If it doesn't come off, it doesn't come off, only got myself to blame.

The flip side to that is not taking bets even though you think it is good value, because 'odds [are] too good to be true'.
May as well stop betting them if you don't want to back what you think is value.

No hindsight in this post. My quote was from mid-week.

I stand by the point that statements such as "bookies are giving away free money" are red flags. These can indicate big public plays.

I'm not saying don't bet these games ever, because sometimes the public is right.

But if you're on a big public play and you get it wrong, maybe your odds are wrong

 

[Barnzy]

Any reason why the Hawthorn GWS line is only -77?

Am I missing something? Would've thought it odds on to be a 100+ win to Hawthorn.

 

[alex mcanulty]

im liking freo 40+ margin at 2.00 anyone agree or a 50/50 bet

 

[banana_bus]

Sanderson rivaling Hardwick for the worst game day coach in the competition.

 

[OhhhhhCyril]

Any reason why the Hawthorn GWS line is only -77?

Am I missing something? Would've thought it odds on to be a 100+ win to Hawthorn.

Lewis out. Hawthorn tanking

 

[GROTTO]

2 Scoring shots lst week, r4 the week before he's getting the ball enough let's just hope he converts today

Well done mate, especially given the slippery conditions, Tex converted well.

 

[GROTTO]

Sanderson rivaling Hardwick for the worst game day coach in the competition.

Lost our assistant to cancer - doesnt help. But yes I do agree with you.

 

[OhhhhhCyril]

First leg down with tex! Not watching game, but why isn't Pav kicking going bang bang like I need him too.

 

[banana_bus]

Michael Johnson deciding to be a DT pig today sums up my week.

 

[OhhhhhCyril]

Yay pav got 1. Need it sub ballantyne out of the game I recon. Rest him for next week.