AFL R12

[GROTTO]

Round 12
Friday, June 6 VENUE EST LOCAL TIME
Geelong Cats vs. Carlton Etihad Stadium 7.50pm 7.50pm
Saturday, June 7
Hawthorn vs. West Coast Eagles Aurora Stadium 1.40pm 1.40pm
Port Adelaide vs. St Kilda Adelaide Oval 4.40pm 4.10pm
GWS GIANTS vs. Essendon GIANTS Stadium 7.40pm 7.40pm
Western Bulldogs vs. Brisbane Lions Etihad Stadium 7.40pm 7.40pm
Sunday, June 8
Gold Coast SUNS vs. Sydney Swans Metricon Stadium 3.20pm 3.20pm
Fremantle vs. Adelaide Crows Patersons Stadium 4.10pm 2.10pm
North Melbourne vs. Richmond Etihad Stadium 7.10pm 7.10pm
Monday, June 9
Melbourne vs. Collingwood MCG 3.20pm 3.20pm

 

[GROTTO]

Chism can you please make this a sticky thanks.

Crappy odds HH on offer this round.

 

[TheKanga]

Biggest value early is possibly

Brisbane H2H and at the line (would prefer $3+)
GWS H2H @ $7 and line of 40+ (Been burnt of them with the Tigers game though)
Melbourne at the line (Can see it being tight with a few Magpie injuries and Dawe to return)

I would steer clear of North/Richmond, as who knows how we will back up returning from Perth.

 

[GROTTO]

Crows at +28.5 against the Dockers in a likely low scoring game.

 

[Jugada]

Bulldogs, Sydney and Collingwood all look great value

 

[banana_bus]

Best value is the Dogs @1.40.

Check out the stats against Freo, especially inside 50s. Matched it all the way with them, poor kicking let them down. I'll be hitting this one hard.

Hawks @1.20 should be 1.08, when will the bookies realise that West Coast are crap? Hopefully never.

Not much else I like this week. Possibly Freo at home, but again they still haven't earned my trust.

 

[Lensen]

It wasn't poor kicking it was the complete lack of ability to do anything inside 50 without pressure

 

[Jay-Z]

As much as I hate to say it, Richmond at $3.80 is overs. North have not put 2 wins together since Rds 3-4 and have looked flat as a tack on our previous return games from Perth and Sydney. Richmond were deplorable this weekend but should come out firing this week and throw everything at my boys.

 

[banana_bus]

It wasn't poor kicking it was the complete lack of ability to do anything inside 50 without pressure

Yes but that's what Freo do - let's not confuse Freos pressure vs Brisbanes pressure.

And bad kicking was a major factor - many of those 15 behinds were gettable goals.

As much as I hate to say it, Richmond at $3.80 is overs. North have not put 2 wins together since Rds 3-4 and have looked flat as a tack on our previous return games from Perth and Sydney. Richmond were deplorable this weekend but should come out firing this week and throw everything at my boys.

Richmond are deplorable. I wouldn't touch them at 100-1.

 

[Jay-Z]

Richmond are deplorable. I wouldn't touch them at 100-1.

I was going to respond and say that you're still a chance if we don't bring our A game. But then I looked a bit closer and your only wins are against GWS, Brisbane and Carlton (just). Wow!

Ignore my previous post.

 

[banana_bus]

I was going to respond and say that you're still a chance if we don't bring our A game. But then I looked a bit closer and your only wins are against GWS, Brisbane and Carlton (just). Wow!

Ignore my previous post.

Mhm.

 

[the_big_sav]

all the favourites over 15.5? I know very rarely all the favs win. maybe leave out dogs/lions game

 

[boyOboy]

Thinking maybe I can make money on picking goalkickers.

With Carlton's ordinary defense I'd back Hawkins to kick a bag. Menzel could be good money to get on the end of a couple too (providing Enright can't get back) ... is what I'm thinking for Friday night.

 

[chrisdon16]

quick multi to start the week

Geel
Haw
Ess
Syd
Dogs
North
Coll

$3.66

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

Thinking maybe I can make money on picking goalkickers.

With Carlton's ordinary defense I'd back Hawkins to kick a bag. Menzel could be good money to get on the end of a couple too (providing Enright can't get back) ... is what I'm thinking for Friday night.

Lenny29 has a model you can buy

 

[Lensen]

Lenny29 has a model you can buy

cleansing myself of most goals bets has been the most refreshing part of my 2014

i've just checked the model (as i still use it for FGS) and these were the top selections last week:
tippett
n.riewoldt
schulz
j.brown
j.riewoldt
t.lynch
crameri
gunston
lecras

a win and 4 draws is probably as good as it's ever done. probably an optimal time to sell

 

[boyOboy]

a win and 4 draws is probably as good as it's ever done. probably an optimal time to sell

What does a draw mean in terms of FGS? As in they were the first scorer for their team but not necessarily the match?

 

[Lensen]

What does a draw mean in terms of FGS? As in they were the first scorer for their team but not necessarily the match?

they were most goals selections, not first. i use the same model for both (with differnig outputs obviously)

 

[boyOboy]

they were most goals selections, not first. i use the same model for both (with differnig outputs obviously)

Aaaah okay, got it. Cheers

 

[GROTTO]

Not much else I like this week. Possibly Freo at home, but again they still haven't earned my trust.

Crows have beaten Freo 3 of the past 5 games, lost one by 7 pts having led at 3QT and lost the other by 22.

Im surprised there is no love for the Crows at +28.5

Nothing like a poster having their usual bias in their selection of their team.

 

[Jay-Z]

If Cameron is out for GWS, I like Essendon 40+ @1.99

 

[GROTTO]

If Cameron is out for GWS, I like Essendon 40+ @1.99

Patton was really impressive in the last quarter against the Hawks. Can the Dons be trusted?

 

[Jay-Z]

Patton was really impressive in the last quarter against the Hawks. Can the Dons be trusted?

They were impressive this week against the hawks, but they will be sore after that game and Cameron is very important to them. Also, the way I see it, if Richmond can beat them up there by over 100, surely Essendon doing 40+ is greater than a 50% chance

 

[Jay-Z]

And Cameron has been given a week by the MRP so even if he hasn't broken his arm (which I suspect he has), he won't play this week

 

[longytap]

Surely the Cats at home will reach their line of -31.5, coming off a loss. Hopefully Enright and Lonergan play?