AFL R12

[Boxhead182]

1 unit Gray over 109.5 SC points at $1.95

 

[TheKanga]

Thinking Geelong 1-39 and Carlton (+31.5) could be good bets.

 

[chrisdon16]

Thinking Geelong 1-39 and Carlton (+31.5) could be good bets.

I wouldn't risk money on Carlton getting within 40 of Geelong. They are a rabble

 

[banana_bus]

Thinking Geelong 1-39 and Carlton (+31.5) could be good bets.

Didn't you try this last week with Sydney and fail miserably?

I hate 1-39 and 40+ bets, look at Freo vs Dogs last week... heart attack stuff.

 

[d3ft]

Swans, Cats, North and Port over 39.5, + Freo under 39.5.
Stake: $25
Return $965.25

EDIT: Never mind, see what you mean now.

 

[chrisdon16]

EDIT: Never mind, see what you mean now.

he means swans, cats, north and port all 40+ not just port

 

[bluebob1]

All valid points. I basically just have a number in mind of what I think a player will average and perhaps adjust it slightly based on matchup. All the stats I use to try and back it up are more for others to try understand where I come from to form these numbers I have in mine.

For example I don't think Martin is a 110 average player. That 118 average over recent weeks is a concern for unders but as I said 2 of those games were against fairly week opposition (although maybe not the Dees!).

As for Mundy he is yet to show he is a 109 average player. In a small sample of 10 games I think it is value if his average is 8 points less despite a 50/50 record on the line. If it was over 50 games with the same 50/50 record but a lower average then I would reconsider. By my count he has gone under 4/6 in games they have won, not sure what you mean by 3/10?

If fyfe is out then Kerridge will prob tag Mundy and has been doing a good job (kept Gary to 25 touches last week).

 

[Sketi]

I hate 1-39 and 40+ bets, look at Freo vs Dogs last week... heart attack stuff.

I love backing Freo 1-39, solid team but highly defensive and don't often blow teams away (as demonstrated against Dogs).

 

[yamahamoto]

I don't think Sanderson is a smart coach. He has got out coached a few times by lyons and longmire. Most recently was against Melbourne where Paul Roos outsmarted him. If his team doesn't allow to run the ball fast they look out of sort. Plus Adelaide midfields are not the smartest. Always bomb the ball long instead of lowering thier eyes. This game would be similar to the bulldogs game. Under 39 would be good if fyfe can't play, if he is then I think it will be a low scoring with freo 70-80pts and Adelaide 40-50pts

 

[GROTTO]

I don't think Sanderson is a smart coach. He has got out coached a few times by lyons and longmire. Most recently was against Melbourne where Paul Roos outsmarted him. If his team doesn't allow to run the ball fast they look out of sort. Plus Adelaide midfields are not the smartest. Always bomb the ball long instead of lowering thier eyes. This game would be similar to the bulldogs game. Under 39 would be good if fyfe can't play, if he is then I think it will be a low scoring with freo 70-80pts and Adelaide 40-50pts

His 3-2 wins over Lyon is also attributed to the fact that we had Bailey in the box in 2012. I don't think he was there in 2013 with his suspension due to match fixing.

Sando has been smashed in the box on game day, either taking too long to make moves or making the wrong moves.

I do think Adelaide at the line is good, if Fyfe and McPharlin are out.

 

[Big Fozza]

4 units Martin U110.5 SC @ $1.80
Pretty high line considering Martin is averaging 98 this year and 101 last year (career high) and he has only gone under this 8/10 times this year and the 2 times he didn't were against GWS and Melbourne. His last 3 weeks have certainly been an improvement on his early season form (it includes the 2 overs and 102) but 110 is just too high.

2 units Mundy U109.5 SC @ $1.80
Averaging 101, although it's just 5/10 under this line. Last year he averaged 104 in a pretty good year, 107 in 2011 and eveyr other yea below 93. I have him down as 100-105 average player based on this and last year average. If Fyfe misses I guess he is a possible recipient of a Kerridge tag but that is just a bonus not a reason.

The Goddard unders did catch my eye but as it's 1.65 now I think that is about the correct odds given they have GWS and Goddard has been in damn god form even though I keep fading him.

would have tailed these but now into 1.65

 

[bluebob1]

would have tailed these but now into 1.65

i think quite a few might be following foxydal contracting the odds. Not deep markets i'd imagine - wouldnt take a huge bet for the odds to change.
I dont mind Redden over 104.5 against the bullies

 

[bluebob1]

i think quite a few might be following foxydal contracting the odds. Not deep markets i'd imagine - wouldnt take a huge bet for the odds to change.
I dont mind Redden over 104.5 against the bullies

Has exceeded 5 out of 11 with a 104 as well. All unders were against top of ladder teams

 

[The_Big_Ship]

Geel -29.5
WC +30.5
Port 40+
Dogs over 15.5
Ess 1-39
Syd
Adel +28.5
North 1-39
Coll

@ 102.19

 

[ricardogp]

1u Geelong and Hawks both >24.5 @ $2.59
1u Hawks >39.5 @ $2.23
1u Fremantle and Collingwood both > 24.5 @ 2.78

Tempted by Geelong/Hawks/Essendon, but it's too short...

 

[Keystone agony]

0.5U Hawkins FGS @8.00 (IAS/Sportsbet) - Money back if he kicks 3 or more
1U Saints +61.5 @1.92 (IAS/Sportsbet)
0.5U Brisbane +19.5 @1.92 (IAS/Sportsbet)
$100 (Freebet) Geel/Carl Under 92.5 Half time line

Multi: 2U Geel, Port, Hawks, Freo, Syd, Coll Wins @2.43 (25% Increase) (Bet365) - 4.075 Unit win

 

[Sketi]

Hale out for the Hawks joining Mcevoy on the sidelines, I guess Roughy and Spangher to ruck duties? Cox and Natanui could have an edge there... Surely West Coast couldn't spring an upset?

I wanna anchor the Hawks in my multis but have had a weird feeling about that game. West Coast really haven't beaten anyone of note... Expecting Hawks in a closeish one.

 

[The GOAT]

Hale out for the Hawks joining Mcevoy on the sidelines, I guess Roughy and Spangher to ruck duties? Cox and Natanui could have an edge there... Surely West Coast couldn't spring an upset?

I wanna anchor the Hawks in my multis but have had a weird feeling about that game. West Coast really haven't beaten anyone of note... Expecting Hawks in a closeish one.

Nup. Ceglar is first ruck, with Lowden backing him up (on debut)

 

[Keystone agony]

Hale out for the Hawks joining Mcevoy on the sidelines, I guess Roughy and Spangher to ruck duties? Cox and Natanui could have an edge there... Surely West Coast couldn't spring an upset?

I wanna anchor the Hawks in my multis but have had a weird feeling about that game. West Coast really haven't beaten anyone of note... Expecting Hawks in a closeish one.

Kennedy not playing for them. Some ins for the hawks and at aurora will make it really hard for the eagles to forge a win. Hawks were very good against Port the week before with a similar team. They didnt come to play against GWS and mentally wernt there.

 

[GROTTO]

Fun Fact. Geelong have not lost two in a row since 2012 - R7 and R8.

 

[foxy_dal]

Few DT plays while I wait for SC markets to come out.

2 units Stokes over Gibbs DT @ $1.85
Average of 100 v 97. Stokes seem the more consistent ball winner to me as he only has 1 score below 91. Gibbs seems to score lower when the Blues lose as well with his 3 lowest scores all in losses. 2013 average is also in Stokes favour 95-89.

2 units Steven over Riewoldt DT @ $1.70
Riewoldt hasn't been in his usual form lately averaging 63 in his last 5. I think Steven showed he was really starting to get back to his 2013 form with 120 against the Suns 2 games ago and got tagged by Macaffer last week for 72 which is still better than Riewoldt's average. Don't imagine the ball will spend much time in the forward line anyway which is part of the reason Riewoldt has struggled in the last 5.

 

[Keystone agony]

Just adding some goal player markets to the bets this week in what i perceive value


To kick 1 or more
4U Chapman @1.72 (Lux)

To kick 2 Goals or more
0.2U J.Mcgovern @9.00 (Bet365)
0.2U WHE @4.33 (Bet365) - Has kicked that 4 our of his last 5 games
0.2U Palmer @4.33 (Bet365) - Has been playing forward lately and kicked 2/5 games so far
0.5U Howlett @3.60 (B365) - Kicked 5 last week in a forward role, ill take that for him to kick 2 against GWS
0.2U Hrovat @6.50 (B365) - Played forward in his first game last week kicked 1.1 against freo, 2 is certainly possible against Brisbane

To kick 3 or more
0.5U L.Breust @2.75 (B365) - Has kicked this 6/9 times this year - expect hawks to win easily and the small forwards to be the main part to kicking a score.

 

[laam]

Just adding some goal player markets to the bets this week in what i perceive value

To kick 2 Goals or more
0.2U J.Mcgovern @9.00 (Bet365)
0.2U WHE @4.33 (Bet365) - Has kicked that 4 our of his last 5 games
0.2U Palmer @4.33 (Bet365) - Has been playing forward lately and kicked 2/5 games so far
0.5U Howlett @3.60 (B365) - Kicked 5 last week in a forward role, ill take that for him to kick 2 against GWS
0.2U Hrovat @6.50 (B365) - Played forward in his first game last week kicked 1.1 against freo, 2 is certainly possible against Brisbane

To kick 3 or more
0.5U L.Breust @2.75 (B365) - Has kicked this 6/9 times this year - expect hawks to win easily and the small forwards to be the main part to kicking a score.

those are excellent, didn't realise b365 had those markets

.5u howlett > 1.5 goals @ 3.6
.5u hrovat > 1.5 goals @ 6.5
1u breust > 2.5 goals @ 2.75

 

[HBFlanker]

Geelong
West Coast +65.5
Brisbane +30.5
Adelaide +36.5

 

[TheKanga]

Didn't you try this last week with Sydney and fail miserably?

I hate 1-39 and 40+ bets, look at Freo vs Dogs last week... heart attack stuff.

Yeah i did i guess i underestimated them and overestimated Essendon in that game.
I know what you mean, but i feel more hesitant to take the -31.5 line as recent clashes between Cats/Blues at etihad have been close.
I would take the Cats H2H but 1.18 does nothing for me with a $20 bet.

Cats could win by 40+ but they just got pumped by 100pts last week themselves.