AFL R12

[yamahamoto]

Yeah i did i guess i underestimated them and overestimated Essendon in that game.
I know what you mean, but i feel more hesitant to take the -31.5 line as recent clashes between Cats/Blues at etihad have been close.
I would take the Cats H2H but 1.18 does nothing for me with a $20 bet.

Cats could win by 40+ but they just got pumped by 100pts last week themselves.

I see the same way this game. Cats probably win by 3-4 goals. Hard to read this game. Carlton have 70-80pts in them. Whether cats can score 110+ to cover the line is the problem. Don't know who will kick thier goals. Hawkin and Johson are good for 6-7 goals on their good day but who will kick the other 10 goals? Plus they have only pumped eagles so far.

 

[Anzac16]

1U - Steve Johnson Under 29.5 Possessions @ $1.87 (Sportsbet)

Averages only 17.4 possessions per game against Carlton over the last 5 years. Mick will tag him and Selwood tonight, no doubt about that.

1U - Callan Ward Under 26.5 Possessions @ $1.87 (Sportsbet)

Would have liked a few extra possessions here, but will cop a tag from Hocking. Averages 19.6 possessions a game against Essendon in his time at GWS.

1U - Callan Ward Under 106.5 DT @ $1.87 (Luxbet)

Read above.

2U - Jack Steven Over 94.5 DT @ $1.87 (Luxbet)

Very low line for someone who has the capabilities that he does. Port haven't really tagged too much this year and he actually has scores of 115, 119 and 99 in his only 3 games against Port. Since returning from injury and starting to score well he has got 108, 108, 67(Armfield Tag), 120 and 72(Macaffer tag).

1U - Adam Treloar Over 103.5 DT @ $1.87 (Luxbet)

Averages 106 this year and 119 over his last 4 games. Has scores of 124,159 and 118 at Spotless this year. Gun.

1U - Adam Treloar Over Callan Ward DT @ $1.90 (Betstar)

Ward with the Hocking tag plus Treloar's ability to score well at home makes this a nice option.

1U - Michael Barlow Over 105.5 DT @ $1.87 (Luxbet)

Averaging 111 this year and had 134 last week as he starts to hit them form he had before his injury. Loves playing the Crows as well. Averages 114.5 over his career against them.

 

[FootyStar#1]

do you guys find when you're doing a DT or SC multi, that some combinations work and some aren't allowed?

 

[Keystone agony]

those are excellent, didn't realise b365 had those markets

.5u howlett > 1.5 goals @ 3.6
.5u hrovat > 1.5 goals @ 6.5
1u breust > 2.5 goals @ 2.75

Yeh i only realised last week. Great markets on every player aswell.

I was thinking - should i keep them hidden ha, nah

 

[Keystone agony]

Have added
4U Chapman to kick 1 or more goals @1.72 (lux)

Against GWS he should at least get one. B365 are paying the same for him to kick 3.

 

[GROTTO]

Plus they have only pumped eagles so far.

Not forgetting that the Eagles were missing a lot of players for that game too.

 

[GROTTO]

Have added
4U Chapman to kick 1 or more goals @1.72 (lux)

Against GWS he should at least get one. B365 are paying the same for him to kick 3.

Good observation, thats really surprising such a big contrast in covering that.

 

[Lensen]

Have added
4U Chapman to kick 1 or more goals @1.72 (lux)

Against GWS he should at least get one. B365 are paying the same for him to kick 3.

it's over 1, i.e. 0 is a loss, 1 is a void, 2 is a win

yes i have triple checked this


edit: unless the line was 0.5 at the time of the bet. it's now 1

 

[Anzac16]

Have added
4U Chapman to kick 1 or more goals @1.72 (lux)

Against GWS he should at least get one. B365 are paying the same for him to kick 3.

Missed that one. Adding it now. Great spot.

2U - Paul Chapman 1+ Goals @ $1.72 (Luxbet)

 

[Anzac16]

it's over 1, i.e. 0 is a loss, 1 is a void, 2 is a win

yes i have triple checked this


edit: unless the line was 0.5 at the time of the bet. it's now 1

Money back if he kicks 1 is still pretty decent considering most agencies are paying the same odds for 3+.

 

[Lensen]

Money back if he kicks 1 is still pretty decent considering most agencies are paying the same odds for 3+.

possibly. given he has 2 goals in his last 5 games i'm pretty happy to let it go, but its not a horrible bet

would certainly be value if it were 1 or over

 

[Aed0s]

Hey guys, haven't made a few AFL bets in recent weeks.

Sportsbet have $2 lines for Geelong vs. Carlton.

I'm liking the looks of:

Geelong (-29.5) @ 2.00 - 1U

 

[Anzac16]

possibly. given he has 2 goals in his last 5 games i'm pretty happy to let it go, but its not a horrible bet

would certainly be value if it were 1 or over

Agree. Hasn't been in great goal kicking form, but I'll back Chappy in to at least slot 1 home for the day.

 

[Lensen]

Agree. Hasn't been in great goal kicking form, but I'll back Chappy in to at least slot 1 home for the day.

given GWS's prospensity to let key forward kick bags, and given i don't really rate daniher at all, i'd be looking at $4.50 for bellchambers 3+ and even $11 4+

but then i rate bellcho higher than most so its probably my own bias coming into play

 

[Keystone agony]

Also my dreamteam bets can be found in my bet tracker thread this week.

 

[Keystone agony]

it's over 1, i.e. 0 is a loss, 1 is a void, 2 is a win

yes i have triple checked this


edit: unless the line was 0.5 at the time of the bet. it's now 1

Yep money back on one

Thats what i meant just CBF writing it - wouldnt include 1 as a win in results

 

[Keystone agony]

possibly. given he has 2 goals in his last 5 games i'm pretty happy to let it go, but its not a horrible bet

would certainly be value if it were 1 or over

Also would he be more likely to rest deeper forward than usual against GWS? thats my thinking aswell. Good point though in that hes only kicked 2 in his last 5. As others are saying ill back him to kick at least one.

 

[squeezer]

Also my dreamteam bets can be found in my bet tracker thread this week.

We have almost the same bets each week. I think this is easy when you know your stuff it's just a shame the markets are not deeper. Do you not think Macaffer could go to Tyson? He's been killing it lately and got tagged last week. I'd still make the Swan over Jones bet but not at 1.65 where it is now.

 

[laam]

5u chappy > 1 goal DNB @ 1.72
2u patton < 1.5 goals @ 1.87
with cameron out patton should be double teamed by the good essendon tall defence.

 

[Keystone agony]

We have almost the same bets each week. I think this is easy when you know your stuff it's just a shame the markets are not deeper. Do you not think Macaffer could go to Tyson? He's been killing it lately and got tagged last week. I'd still make the Swan over Jones bet but not at 1.65 where it is now.

Its a very small possibility. Did Tyson get tagged last week? he had 30 and kicked 2 goals and Port dont tag - in fact i watched that game and Kornes started going to N.Jones when the game remained close.

5u chappy > 1 goal DNB @ 1.72
2u patton < 1.5 goals @ 1.87
with cameron out patton should be double teamed by the good essendon tall defence.

Going to follow you back on that Patton one. Going to be hard for him against Hooker, Carlisle and Fletcher. Edit: Actually im not going to. Hard to make out him being the main target will do compared to having the number one key defender on him. I wouldve liked 2-

 

[laam]

Going to follow you back on that Patton one. Going to be hard for him against Hooker, Carlisle and Fletcher. Edit: Actually im not going to. Hard to make out him being the main target will do compared to having the number one key defender on him. I wouldve liked 2-

Yeah would have loved the 2-, would have gone much harder at that.

 

[JuddsABlue]

Hey guys, haven't made a few AFL bets in recent weeks.

Sportsbet have $2 lines for Geelong vs. Carlton.

I'm liking the looks of:

Geelong (-29.5) @ 2.00 - 1U

putting my carlton knowledge to betting use I like the Carlton side of this

I like to think I'm fairly spot on with what to expect from Carlton and I expect a pretty good show tonight, would be shocked if it blew out past 40p and expect somewhere around 0-20 for the cats or a carlton win

 

[Awesomeau]

Just to add to the Swan bet, with Sidebottom out I'd expect more midfield time for him. He's sitting at 1.65 though so might be too short.

One I haven't seen mentioned that I really like is Dahlhaus > 92.5 @ 1.87 (Luxbet).
Averages 96.7, only gone under 3 (of 9), and Brisbane are THE easiest team to score against.
I'm going 2U.

 

[Keystone agony]

Just to add to the Swan bet, with Sidebottom out I'd expect more midfield time for him. He's sitting at 1.65 though so might be too short.

One I haven't seen mentioned that I really like is Dahlhaus > 92.5 @ 1.87 (Luxbet).
Averages 96.7, only gone under 3 (of 9), and Brisbane are THE easiest team to score against.
I'm going 2U.

Not a bad one. I think that lines pretty spot on.

Has been slowing in past weeks going under 2 in the last 3.

 

[foxy_dal]

1u Simpson over Gibbs SC $1.85
2u Montagna over Hayes SC $1.70
2u Dal Santo over Harvey SC $1.85
2u Vince over Dunn SC $1.70

Reasons and more bets to follow. Damn sportsbet releasing these while I have work!