AFL R6

[TheKanga]

I don't know about you guys but after another crappy round for betting, i'm looking ahead to next week.

Current early odds (sportsbet)

Collingwood - $1.67
vs.
Essendon - $2.20
Line is 4.5

St Kilda - $1.42
vs.
Brisbane - $2.70
Line is 14.5

Fremantle - $1.39
vs.
North Melbourne - $2.95
Line is 18.5

Gold Coast - $1.26
vs.
GWS - $3.70
Line is 25.5

Carlton - $2.30
vs.
West Coast - $1.58
Line is 9.5

Melbourne - $6.50
vs.
Sydney - $1.10
Line is 42.5

Western Bulldogs - $2.15
vs.
Adelaide - $1.65
Line is 6.5

Richmond - $5.00
vs.
Hawthorn - $ 1.16
Line is 33.5

Port Adelaide - $2.00
vs.
Geelong - $1.78
Line is 3.5

 

[TheKanga]

Early on i like

Collingwood (-6.5)
St Kilda 1-39

@ 4.03

Might put this on as an Anzac day multi when i have money on Tuesday.

 

[TheKanga]

Just checked the forecast for all the games on Anzac Day, should be dry for Collingwood/Essendon & Freo/North
Wet weather expected over in New Zealand for the St Kilda/Brisbane game.

When the total game points markets become available i might go for a 2 leg multi of Saints/Lions & Freo/North both under.

Reasons

- Whenever it's wet it nearly always seems to go under, two young sides as well who will find it even harder to score.
- North have failed to score 100pts in a game so far, Against Freo at home i don't expect that to change.
- Last season they held North to 29pts for the whole game but only scoring 67pts themselves.
- On the flipside we haven't conceded 100pts so far this season, probably due to our more defensive game plan

Will be interesting to see what total match points market is, if it's 170 that could be value

 

[Aed0s]

I like your early points TheKanga. After my worst week this year I'm going to be doing a bit more pre-planning on my bets!

I also like the Collingwood -5.5 line.

We played well against NM and Essendon succumbed to the Saints, which destroyed my week in betting. I see Essendon lifting their game for Anzac Day though.

St Kilda -14.5 also looks good. Brisbane still with some key outs and played poorly against Richmond @ the Gabba, but I think Merrett returns from suspension.

GWS +25.5 also looks good. GC weren't all that convincing over a poor Melbourne. Perhaps it was just their inaccuracy in front of goal which makes it look worse than what it was. GWS had some rough patches against Adelaide, especially in the 2nd quarter when Ward was subbed off though.

West Coast -9.5 looks very enticing indeed.

Hawthorn 40+ @ 2.10.

My early thoughts. This year we have seen some upsets and from my perspective most games look very unpredictable. Or maybe I'm just not analysing the games properly... I'm going small on the bets that I'm confident in and winning, and then losing on bets that I'm not confident and put more money into... Uggh..

 

[TheKanga]

Yep i think Collingwood are good things for Anzac Day, Essendon have been highly overrated by the media.
If Cloke fires like he did against my team they won't stand a chance.
You also have the better midfield in Pendlebury, Swan and nimble mid sized fwds like Elliott.

Gold Coast & GWS will be interesting could see either team winning, When do the Giants get Mumford and Shaw back?
Might have a go on the Giants if the line moves out a bit.

Not sold on WCE personally, they have beaten up on Melbourne and Bulldogs and barely beat the Saints in Perth.
Could see Carlton winning this but might make this a no bet game.

Locking these bets

Collingwood (-6.5)
St Kilda 1-39

@ 4.03

&

St Kilda/Brisbane Total Match Points under 167.5
Fremantle/North Total Match Points under 168.5

@ 3.53

Will put 2u on each


EDIT - BETS placed but the totals have moved in slightly, still confident on these though but glad i got on as i could see them coming in even further tomorrow night.

 

[CaptScott]

Might put some small $$ on Bris, games in strange places (NZ/Darwin etc...) seem to produce unusual results, so money on the underdog might pay off.

 

[TheKanga]

Might put some small $$ on Bris, games in strange places (NZ/Darwin etc...) seem to produce unusual results, so money on the underdog might pay off.

Stranger things have happened
I really like the way the Saints are going about it atm
Senior players in good form plus some exciting kids coming through.
They will win

 

[GROTTO]

Just checked the forecast for all the games on Anzac Day, should be dry for Collingwood/Essendon & Freo/North
Wet weather expected over in New Zealand for the St Kilda/Brisbane game.

I thought the weather for Wellington is supposed to be no rain expected.

 

[free at last]

I thought the weather for Wellington is supposed to be no rain expected.

I've just checked a few different sites and they are showing the chance of wet weather.Looks like it'll definitely be blowing pretty hard.Not sure how much the ground the game is at gets affected by windy conditions.

 

[Smiling Buddha]

Can't believe the value for Saints and Dockers. Might be worth a multi.

 

[banana_bus]

Can't believe the value for Saints and Dockers. Might be worth a multi.

Agree.

Also the Hawks win, and win well well well. Whispers that Cotchin wont play. This could be a demolition.

 

[HeavyPop]

Sportsbet refunding H2H in Ess/Coll game if a player kicks over 4 goals. Dry day expected, surely someone will.

Also got the GWS/Port game next week with Port 40+ currently @ 2.40

 

[Keystone agony]

Freo look the best bet there. Dont see anyone really challenging them at Patersons this year. NO S.Thompson either. Ill be going hard for Pavlich MGS and freo win comfortably.

Im not sure i think lions could maybe go alright against the saints. Bombers were flat. Brisbane get big Merrett back aswell however the saints form seems to be going pretty well.

The one i like is Adelaide SU. They pants the saints at ES only 2 weeks ago and killed the giants, their form of late and through most of the year has been pretty good. They took it right upto the cats at skilled who have gone on to be the best team so far this year, took it upto port who look at the moment a top 3 team currently. They got smashed by the swans who are a really hard team to read just beat last years grand finalist though.

Stk -16.5
Hawks win
Freo -22.5
Adel -6.5

@8.5
1u

 

[Keystone agony]

Also could Hooker or Hurley play a Brian Lake GF and win the anzac medal. With so many gun midfielders on both sides id expect one of them to come away with it. But maybe a huge job on Cloke and cutting balls off could see someone like Hooker end with 10 marks 28 posses and hold Cloke to bugger all.

Hooker @67
Hurley @81

 

[TheKanga]

I'm shocked Thompson got a ban for that, i didn't think there was much in it.
Noticed Ballantyne got a ban as well, which is a relief could see him causing headaches.
We will be up against it however that is when we seem to perform the best...
Hoping that Majak Daw comes in after kicking 4 goals in the VFL on the weekend.
i won't be betting on the result as i find I'm to emotionally invested to make a proper assessment.

 

[ricardogp]

Thought I was being clever last week when I multied Essendon over Collingwood ($1.67) with Freo over WCE ($1.53). Thought they would both shorten after they beat StKilda and Sydney respectively.

Now Essendon is $2.20, and Freo have also drifted slightly.

I'm surprised the Dons are out so much though. They did beat Collingwood convincingly last Anzac Day. (However I have noted that they have only won that game from the last 9)

 

[TheKanga]

Second six day break in a row for Essendon, i think they will put in a better effort...
Though Collingwood are the better team in all areas on the ground and should win.

 

[Big Fozza]

2u Pies -5.5
2u St Kilda 1-39
2u Hawthorn -32.5
1u port 1-39
.5u multi the above
1u freo v north under 168.5
2u st kilda v brisbane under 169.5

 

[Yellow Feathers]

I think Adelaide are good value. Can't see the Dogs getting over them.

 

[Reluctant Jim]

3 Units - Saints/Swans (using up some turnover requirements)
.5 Unit - Collingwood
.5 Unit - Collingwood -5.5
.5 Unit - WCE
.5 Unit - WCE -7.5
1 Unit - Adelaide
1 Unit - Freo/Suns/WCE/Swans/Crows 4.765
1 Unit - Freo/Suns/Swans

Plan on spending the weekend watching footy so going in on everything I like, like a mug....

 

[Pie Legend]

Just checked the forecast for all the games on Anzac Day, should be dry for Collingwood/Essendon & Freo/North
Wet weather expected over in New Zealand for the St Kilda/Brisbane game.

When the total game points markets become available i might go for a 2 leg multi of Saints/Lions & Freo/North both under.

Reasons

- Whenever it's wet it nearly always seems to go under, two young sides as well who will find it even harder to score.
- North have failed to score 100pts in a game so far, Against Freo at home i don't expect that to change.
- Last season they held North to 29pts for the whole game but only scoring 67pts themselves.
- On the flipside we haven't conceded 100pts so far this season, probably due to our more defensive game plan

Will be interesting to see what total match points market is, if it's 170 that could be value

Just a very quick question on this, does the TAB offer a market for total game points over/under? Couldn't see it on their site but was thinking maybe it gets opened later in the week?

 

[jaymasha]

Just a very quick question on this, does the TAB offer a market for total game points over/under? Couldn't see it on their site but was thinking maybe it gets opened later in the week?

yeah they do, they're quite slow in opening that up, usually the day the teams get named

 

[bombers21]

2.5 units Essendon over Collingwood @ $2.25

Essendon was too bad to be true against St Kilda. I think Essendon have a better team right around the ground. Even if the midfield break even, I still think Essendon will prove too strong. Hurley will match up well against Cloke. Winderlich and Goddard (pretty sure) are good ins. 2 of the most important players IMO.

 

[TheKanga]

You don't have forward line though, i would be surprised if Essendon win.

 

[bombers21]

Thats my only worry Kanga. I think our midfielders have to push forward and be damaging. I believe that we can restrict Collingwood's scoring and that means we won't need to kick a massive score.