AFL Round 1

[The Big Woofer]

a little early in the week but we've had quite a while to study the opening round & evaluate the prices/lines.....so let's exchange some thoughts/info.

Has anyone heard whether Lenny Hayes is likely to play? I have heard a few rumours suggesting he may not be risked with his calf.
It appears Bradshaw will line up for the Swans.

I think this Sydney v StK game offers value for the Swans, without Fisher i see stk struggling for match ups with the guys Syd will throw forward--Bradshaw, Jessie White, Goodes (at times), O'Keefe (at times)....with no fisher the StK defence may be exposed a bit like the NAB Cup final, Fisher is so good at being 3rd man up & his run from HB is vital.

If you view the history of these sides whilst stk have been favoured by the W/L record you'll notice the games are almost always close & i see this being no exception.

With no Fisher & maybe no Hayes the Sydney +15.5 is very very attractive, i have rated the game at StK -7.5 if Hayes does play & close enough to even if he doesn't so either way the +15.5 & $2.70 Sydney is huge value.

When i thought carlton were going into round 1 with guys like Waite & Muphy out i had the marked at exactly what it is now (-16.5) but now these guys are playing & it seems the Blues will be close to full strength (minus Judd of course), i think the line here should be -23.5 especially with the Tigers missing such a quality midfielder as Foley (they can't really be affording to lose anyone!)....some value to the Blue Baggers line -16.5

Port v North Melbourne is an interesting one, i think weather is so important in this one, Port play all their best football in day games at footy park in good weather & Petrie is a huge loss for the Kangas (susp). In fine weather i have this game at -22.5 so i going to suggest Port -16.5 is currently good value although i think the kangas will be ok this year.

I'm not sure Haw should be giving -31.5 to anyone with all their injuries but i want to see Melb's team before i finalise that game, i'll just say this--in 2009 when Haw again had injury troubles their average winning margin was only 25 pts & 5 goals is a big start when you consider no Burgoyne, Buddy, Taylor, Skipper, Sewell, Bateman, Rioli.

Here's to a profitable 2010

 

[mike262]

i like the sydney +15.5 line, i even think sydney might win this one.

Port and carlton games are iffy. North always plays well against port and i have to see how carlton play without Fev before i get on them. GL tho.

 

[GoodesStuff]

Well if you think the line is good fo Sydney at 15.5 I would look at the Either team under 15.5 at $3.10+. As has been said these games are usually very tight and if the Swans do win you would expect Saints to just lose, but if St.Kilda come away with it, I would expect something similar to the 1 point win up here last year.

I will be cheering for a Swans win in a close one

 

[lions_den]

No one has opened up enough betting markets yet.

 

[The Big Woofer]

Well if you think the line is good fo Sydney at 15.5 I would look at the Either team under 15.5 at $3.10+. As has been said these games are usually very tight and if the Swans do win you would expect Saints to just lose, but if St.Kilda come away with it, I would expect something similar to the 1 point win up here last year.

I will be cheering for a Swans win in a close one

That's a good price & a very solid bet given the history & type of gameplans involved.

I probably will keep it simple & back Syd +15.5 & a smaller bet on Sydney to win.....if Hayes doesn't play i reckon the Swans line is an absolute special.

 

[Lensen]

I don't do line betting, as too many times late goals that mean nothing in the context of games kill me.

I've done my lines and the only three I see that are over the odds according to my "system" are Adelaide, Port and St Kilda. But I've identified an inconsistency and unprofitability in my system bets for away teams so am leaving them alone.

Port only this week for me.

 

[Athomas]

Mutli Hawthorn, Geelong and Carlton (maybe Carlton at the line)

 

[krusher]

I don't do line betting, as too many times late goals that mean nothing in the context of games kill me.

I've done my lines and the only three I see that are over the odds according to my "system" are Adelaide, Port and St Kilda. But I've identified an inconsistency and unprofitability in my system bets for away teams so am leaving them alone.

Port only this week for me.

Line betting is all about backing your judgement to pick who is going to get those junk time goals - ie teams playing interstate often throw in towel early (freo, port or some melb teams playing adelaide)

teams playing young kids (mel, rich this yr )


pick some teams early in the year and watch them beat the line consistently
my best two are bulldogs and sydney
my top two to lay in line betting - richmond and hawthorn

 

[pacemaker]

I usually have luck when I post my bets so here they are

I use TABplayer here in WA and they have the worst odds in Australia probably but I don't like having an online account.

I have gone the Geelong,Hawthorn and Brisbane bet $50 @ $1.83

And for some reason I did Adelaide, WB, Bris, St kilda all with a 24.5 head start $30 @ $1.75.

I am looking into doing the Sydney line as well after last years match and the fact its a small oval and they will want to win or be competitive in this one

 

[Wilso]

Multi Hawthorn, Geelong and Carlton (maybe Carlton at the line)

This. Although I'm strongly considering throwing in Adelaide.

 

[the egg]

I'm going against the grain and backing Fremantle, Richmond and West Coast. All depending on team selections of course...

 

[Jammer]

Thanks for a great write T.B.W. and thoughts of others.....

I'm looking at the Hawks and Port game and will post later in the week when i've done a little more homework.

Think Hawks lack of outside mids makes covering 30 pts a tough one.
In saying that ........just how sh1te The Dees are is the question you need to ask yourself.
Hawthorn beat the Dees by under 4 goals in both games with better sides at the same venue last year.....
If anyone has a good read on the Dees please post your thoughts as i'm warming to backing them with the start.

Like Ports new game plan and have to do some homework as to why they got pumped by about 70pts in their last practise match.

I wouldn't be touching the Cats at 5's on and thank there a danger as an anchor in multies

 

[mattys123]

Like Ports new game plan and have to do some homework as to why they got pumped by about 70pts in their last practise match.

I wouldn't be touching the Cats at 5's on and thank there a danger as an anchor in multies

Why Port performed so badly against Collingwood in their last practice match is a real mystery. They had almost a full side in, but also so did the Pies.

Interesting to note that the game was delayed for 15 minutes due to the pies having travel problems getting into Mt Gambier, so that might have put Port off more then the Pies.

I'm not liking round 1 at all as a betting round, might see what's on offer for the pies being given a start, and Brisbane might be a decent bet, but games like Carlton/Richmond and Port/North are too hard to figure out without any real "true 2010 form" to go on.

 

[Athomas]

This. Although I'm strongly considering throwing in Adelaide.

As am I actually!

Might not though, hate touching freo games.

 

[lions_den]

Looks like I'll just be making a few fantasy bets on sportingbet, great value!

 

[GoodesStuff]

.

I wouldn't be touching the Cats at 5's on and thank there a danger as an anchor in multies

If I can get 1.25 I will have a big go at the cats to kick start my season

 

[Daytripper]

If I can get 1.25 I will have a big go at the cats to kick start my season

Well the bid and lay are 1.24 and 1.26 respectively on Betfair. Stick something in at 1.25 and I'll match you.

 

[GoodesStuff]

Well the bid and lay are 1.24 and 1.26 respectively on Betfair. Stick something in at 1.25 and I'll match you.

You really think the bombers have got a hope...

I think people may have been caught up a little in the Bulldogs/Brisbane/St.Kilda hype, and have forgotten just how good the cats are. Remember last year Geelong didnt lose a game for over 3 months.

 

[Daytripper]

You really think the bombers have got a hope...

I think people may have been caught up a little in the Bulldogs/Brisbane/St.Kilda hype, and have forgotten just how good the cats are. Remember last year Geelong didnt lose a game for over 3 months.

Every team in every game has got a hope. Cats aren't $1.25 chances IMO so am happy to lay them.

 

[GoodesStuff]

Every team in every game has got a hope. Cats aren't $1.25 chances IMO so am happy to lay them.

Yeh HOPE wasnt the right word. I just dont see Geelong losing to Essendon come Friday night. Essendon may put up a fight so I see taking the 5 goal line as a much bigger risk than taking the Cats at 1.25 who IMO will win at worst by 3 goals

 

[Daytripper]

Yeh HOPE wasnt the right word. I just dont see Geelong losing to Essendon come Friday night. Essendon may put up a fight so I see taking the 5 goal line as a much bigger risk than taking the Cats at 1.25 who IMO will win at worst by 3 goals

Mate - I can't monitor the betfair market all day. If you want to bet - bet.

 

[GoodesStuff]

Mate - I can't monitor the betfair market all day. If you want to bet - bet.

I will wait for the teams to be released. That MAY change my amount etc... but wont change my decision

 

[Daytripper]

I will wait for the teams to be released. That MAY change my amount etc... but wont change my decision

You might miss the price but your decision

Early days but Geel are without Corey, Varcoe and Stokes.
Essendon are without Hurley, McVeigh and Lovett-Murray.

PM me next Thursday if you want.

 

[tazlgnd]

I struggle to see where essendons goals are going to come from

no hurley, lloyd, lucas means no big bodies up front, and nobody to crash the packs for the crumbers

geelong will shit it in

 

[GoodesStuff]

I struggle to see where essendons goals are going to come from

no hurley, lloyd, lucas means no big bodies up front, and nobody to crash the packs for the crumbers

geelong will shit it in

Yeah they should shit it in but it is the first game of the season so thats why I will be more conservative and take the 1.25 h2h