AFL Round 18

[Sketi]

Bye round spread over 2 weekends;

Friday 18th

Carlton 4.15 v North Melbourne 1.24 (Line 29.5)

Saturday 19th

St Kilda 12.00 v Fremantle 1.03 (Line 56.5)
GWS 7.50 v Geelong 1.09 (Line 40.5)

Sunday 19th

Port Adelaide 1.08 v Melbourne 8.00 (Line 41.5)
Western Bulldogs 3.10 v Essendon 1.37 (Line 18.5)

Friday 25th

West Coast 1.54 v Richmond 2.50 (Line 10.5)

Saturday 26th

Brisbane 2.85 v Gold Coast 1.43 (Line 15.5)
Hawthorn 2.05 v Sydney 1.77 (Line 4.5)

Sunday 27th

Collingwood 1.72 v Adelaide 2.15 (Line 4.5)

Odds taken from Sportsbet - they are continuing their round 17 promo of money back if your head to head bet loses by 20 points or less.

 

[ricardogp]

Groan, another split rounds. AFL needs to toughen up.

Initially it looks like the Geelong line is a bit short and Richmond are overs... need to go home and play with the model though.

 

[Sketi]

Early thoughts, 2 pretty contrasting weekends value wise. Mostly lopsided boring contests this weekend, can't really see any favourites losing, all 5 games H2H in a multi fetches about $2.

Blues might push North but at Etihad North should be too good. Closest one this weekend would be Dogs v Bombers but Bombers are building momentum and with Goddard back will be keen to consolidate their position in the 8.

Freo line maybe a little short considering thier form and the fact they play Etihad well.

The following weekend there is lots more value and the sportsbet promo comes into play, Richmond seem value at 2.50 considering form and the fact they won over there last year.

Swans worth a punt with the promo, with the option to cover bases with a hedge on Hawks -19.5 etc. Also liking Adelaide.

That weekend is ages away though :/

 

[Spitter9]

crows good value

 

[ricardogp]

I think the Blues will push North this week. Also think Port will get their mojo back at home this round.

1u Carlton +24.5 @ $2
1u Port Adelaide -42.5 @ $1.91

Also liking Richmond and Adelaide, but will wait for the teams

 

[Redacted Boner]

I wouldn't be surprised if Carlton win su. North back from the Tassie game on a heavy track and they are probably due to lose another one they should win.

 

[tibor]

Port/Melbourne Under 168.5

 

[Jay-Z]

I wouldn't be surprised if Carlton win su. North back from the Tassie game on a heavy track and they are probably due to lose another one they should win.

Yep, I have backed north for a small profit and hedged with Carlton using the sportsbet special. I have very little confidence but free money is free money

Sent from my Nokia 3210

 

[Keystone agony]

Doggies and north the only worries for the first week and I feel north should win at etihad, however carlton have a pretty good record at etihad this season barring the first week. Might look to get on both underdogs in a small way.

Not only do the dons get Goddard back but they also get Hibberd aswell.

 

[OhhhhhCyril]

Hawks @ $2.15 giddy up.
Tight low scoring, wet sat night footy. I know the swans are the best side going around, but I still think at the G the hawks are a really good chance. With the likely ins as: Gibson (will go to franklin) hill and young Hartung for pace, I like the price.

 

[yamahamoto]

Hawks @ $2.15 giddy up.
Tight low scoring, wet sat night footy. I know the swans are the best side going around, but I still think at the G the hawks are a really good chance. With the likely ins as: Gibson (will go to franklin) hill and young Hartung for pace, I like the price.

You already got the weather forecast for next Saturday?

 

[OhhhhhCyril]

You already got the weather forecast for next Saturday?

I don't remember the last warm, clear sky sat night in the middle of winter do you?

 

[Jugada]

I don't remember the last warm, clear sky sat night in the middle of winter do you?

and that automatically = all Saturday nights are wet?

Wtf does it being a Saturday have to do with anything anyway?

 

[ricardogp]

I don't remember the last warm, clear sky sat night in the middle of winter do you?

Debunked.



Who would have thought it - July's mean rainfall for Melbourne is the same as January's. That's Melbourne for you...

 

[BloodRet]

Might put a bit on Carlton with the sportsbet promo

 

[Tassieboy]

Who would have thought it - July's mean rainfall for Melbourne is the same as January's. That's Melbourne for you...

Yeah, but there's significantly less sunshine hours/clear days in winter, even accounting for shorter days.

 

[Willzzz]

Have taken 2U – Carl +28.5 & 3U – Syd -2.5 in the AFL.
Not much else really stands out, hate lines around 35-50 points. A real flip of the coin IMO.

Both taken with Bet365 and yesterday although both lines are still good to take now.

 

[Willzzz]

Hawks @ $2.15 giddy up.
Tight low scoring, wet sat night footy. I know the swans are the best side going around, but I still think at the G the hawks are a really good chance. With the likely ins as: Gibson (will go to franklin) hill and young Hartung for pace, I like the price.

Not sure why Melbourne's weather is the topic of discussion. Sydney are renowned for their wet-weather football ability so even if it was wet-and-cold, it shouldn't sway it in Hawthorn's direction. However, I do think Hawthorn are a chance and even though I have taken the 3U - Swans -2.5- as it is clear the line will move out from now to the bounce- I might hope for a middle by taking the Hawks +8.5 (hopefully).

 

[Redacted Boner]

Yep, I have backed north for a small profit and hedged with Carlton using the sportsbet special. I have very little confidence but free money is free money

Sent from my Nokia 3210

Betting a 1.24 ML? Yer crazier than Sooz m8.

No real confidence in AFL the past few weeks, aside some shits and giggles multi's tied into some other events I'm not betting too much on footy this week, waiting for US Open and the Yank football before I release the shekels.

I would think Freo, Port, Geelong and Essendon cover the spreads but those numbers, aside Ess are bad to bet on. North in a close one.

 

[Nothing]

Not sure why Melbourne's weather is the topic of discussion. Sydney are renowned for their wet-weather football ability so even if it was wet-and-cold, it shouldn't sway it in Hawthorn's direction. However, I do think Hawthorn are a chance and even though I have taken the 3U - Swans -2.5- as it is clear the line will move out from now to the bounce- I might hope for a middle by taking the Hawks +8.5 (hopefully).

According to football commentators and those who have done no research. Sydney are significantly worse in wet weather.

 

[Lensen]

Sydney are renowned for their wet-weather football ability

lol

edit: oh tants already pointed it out. my bad

 

[ElitePunter]

They were woeful against West Coast in the wet.

Hawks have looked decent in the wet this year, on the other hand. A real 50/50 game at the moment. I'm going to wait for the teams.

 

[Jammer]

Swans are too short for mine....
Copping $1.80ish for a team who have won 12 in a row
Against hawks at the g in the middle of winter night game
Is far too skinny for me

I would very surprised if you don't get $2 in the run the Swans

 

[CamTinley]

Port/Melbourne Under 168.5

It's a hard one to call. Is there a particular reason for thinking it will go that way ?

 

[Xavier Menzies]

Swans 40+ looks juicy @7s hummmmm

especially if the hawks dont get a tad taller in that defensive unit...