AFL Round 18

[saha]

These two sides showing why you shouldn't punt on mediocre, mid-ladder sides. Impossible to bet with any confidence given their inconsistency from quarter to quarter.

 

[The_Big_Ship]

Sidey doing his job, come on Beama

Which bookie allowed you to make that multi? I tried following but it wouldn't allow it.

 

[Stevi_Tigers]

300 on crows at 1.50 live bet

 

[Redacted Boner]

yay another refund

 

[STANDBYHIRD12]

**** off Beams ends up on 101..

 

[vho123]

This is another extremely hard game to tip, but I just don't like Collingwood's chances. If Thompson is a late out that will be a massive blow to Adelaide's chances but is slightly offset with Collingwood losing Dane Swan - but I think they'll have midfield depth to cover him.

The mapgies are coming into this game having dropped four of its pas five games, and they were atrocious against the bombers last week. With Gold Coast losing, an Adelaide win here will see them jump above the magpies into the 8. Up forward Adelaide have the fire power to overcome Collingwood's defense even with Ben Reid in (I expect him to play back) due to not being match fit. Taylor Walker will be a handful and Jenkins booted 4 goals last time these two met, but look for Eddie Betts to get off the leash in this game. Up the other end Talia has owned Cloke every time they've played and kept him to 1 goal in their round 9 encounter.

Both teams will be desperate to win, and it'll be a hard fought see-sawing game but Adelaide will continue their good form and power home.

2u Adelaide H2H @ $1.92 (Sportsbet promo)
1u Adelaide atl (+0.0) @ $1.92 (Sportsbet)
1.5u Rory Sloane OVER 25.5 disp @ $1.87 (Sportsbet) averages 32 disp in his last two games against the Giants and Hawks.
0.5u Eddie Betts 3 or more goals @ $3.00 (Sportsbet)

2u Adelaide H2H @ $1.92 (Sportsbet promo) WIN
1u Adelaide atl (+0.0) @ $1.92 (Sportsbet) WIN
1.5u Rory Sloane OVER 25.5 disp @ $1.87 (Sportsbet) LOSS
0.5u Eddie Betts 3 or more goals @ $3.00 LOSS 2 goals in the 1st quarter, zilch after that =O

Return: +0.76u

 

[BloodRet]

3U Adelaide H2H @ 2.05 WIN
0.5U most possessions/most goals Sidebottom Cloke @ 27 WIN (Split to 13.5 because of Walker kicking another with 2 mins left)
1.5U Cloke 4 or more goals @ 4.30 LOSE (flipping BS, Cloke jumped on right in front of goal with minutes remaining)
2.5U Walker 4 or more goals @ 5 LOSE :-(
3.5U Sidebottom over Sloane DT @ 1.85 WIN
1U over 174.5 @ 1.88 WIN

 

[foxy_dal]

Another shocker, 2 easy wins then Burgoyne has a 37 point last quarter including a tackle in the last play and then Beams goes under by 1 when I would have taken 100.5 if it didn't get crunched....

EDIT: Went early on Beams who covers in post match updates

Think it's a sign it's time to pull the pin on this season so will probably only take anything that really stands out.

Round 18 W2: 3-5 -5.82

YTD: 152-2-84 +90.38 units

3 units Cotchin Over 99.5 DT @ $1.87
2 units Priddis Over 102.5 DT @ $1.87
2 units Hanley Over 92.5 DT @ $1.87
2 units Prestia Over 100.5 DT @ $1.87
2 units Burgoyne Under 85.5 DT @ $1.87
2 units Mitchell Over Lewis SC @ $1.75
2 units Beams Over 102.5 DT @ $1.85
2 units Pendlebury over Beams DT @ $1.80

 

[STANDBYHIRD12]

Another shocker, 2 easy wins then Burgoyne has a 37 point last quarter including a tackle in the last play and then Beams goes under by 1 when I would have taken 100.5 if it didn't get crunched....

Think it's a sign it's time to pull the pin on this season so will probably only take anything that really stands out.

Round 18 W2: 2-6 -9.52

YTD: 151-2-85 +86.68 units

3 units Cotchin Over 99.5 DT @ $1.87
2 units Priddis Over 102.5 DT @ $1.87
2 units Hanley Over 92.5 DT @ $1.87
2 units Prestia Over 100.5 DT @ $1.87
2 units Burgoyne Under 85.5 DT @ $1.87
2 units Mitchell Over Lewis SC @ $1.75
2 units Beams Over 102.5 DT @ $1.85
2 units Pendlebury over Beams DT @ $1.80

Gone real cold mate

 

[Willzzz]

Another shocker, 2 easy wins then Burgoyne has a 37 point last quarter including a tackle in the last play and then Beams goes under by 1 when I would have taken 100.5 if it didn't get crunched....

Think it's a sign it's time to pull the pin on this season so will probably only take anything that really stands out.

Round 18 W2: 2-6 -9.52

YTD: 151-2-85 +86.68 units

3 units Cotchin Over 99.5 DT @ $1.87
2 units Priddis Over 102.5 DT @ $1.87
2 units Hanley Over 92.5 DT @ $1.87
2 units Prestia Over 100.5 DT @ $1.87
2 units Burgoyne Under 85.5 DT @ $1.87
2 units Mitchell Over Lewis SC @ $1.75
2 units Beams Over 102.5 DT @ $1.85
2 units Pendlebury over Beams DT @ $1.80

Bad luck man. It happens. I've had a horror week myself in AFL/NRL.

I've been in this caper long enough to know that you will go through rough patches.
Whether you continue or not is dependant on whether you still think you have an edge over the bookies.
If so, continue betting, if not revise/stop.

 

[foxy_dal]

Yeah I think the edge fades for fantasy bets in the second half of the season, find myself having to look for value rather than seeing it at first. Good news is Beams got an extra 12 after the siren so result was a little better this week.

 

[STANDBYHIRD12]

**** off Beams ends up on 101..

Booooom!! Beams ends up on 112, and didn't end up going Pendles>Beams. Profitable game

 

[jefffff34]

Which bookie allowed you to make that multi? I tried following but it wouldn't allow it.

It's in the player markets on Sportsbet. It's an actual market, not a multi.

Oh and winning one side of it, and being one goal behind in the other just summed up the ****ing game for me, didn't it. C*nts.

 

[Aussie_boy]

Will multi:
Richmond +11.5
Brisbane +15.5
Hawthorn +10.5
Adelaide +10.5
Paying $9.48

And probably a small bet on:
Richmond
Brisbane
Hawthorn
Adelaide
Paying $32.20

May as well brag this one, pretty happy

 

[TheKanga]

yay another refund

You were lucky to get it with that junk time goal from Collingwood.

 

[Redacted Boner]

You were lucky to get it with that junk time goal from Collingwood.

lucky swans last night and eagles on friday too fell on the right side of +20.5

 

[leevone]

Disappointing weekend. Bring on round 19

 

[TheKanga]

Disappointing weekend. Bring on round 19

Split round sucks

 

[Zealbee]

Sportsbet are continuing their promotion.

 

[leevone]

Split round sucks

Smashed it last weekend. Nothing went my way this weekend. Time to refresh and come back strong next round! Heads up fellas

 

[TheKanga]

May as well brag this one, pretty happy

Brag away son, how much did u get?

 

[TheKanga]

Smashed it last weekend. Nothing went my way this weekend. Time to refresh and come back strong next round! Heads up fellas

It happens I tipped 1/3 this weekend, just try and do your research and get one back on the bookies next weekend

 

[Aussie_boy]

Brag away son, how much did u get?

Had 1U on the main one (handicap one) and 0.5U on the H2H one, plus the sportsbet multi bonus which im yet to get yet. Will end up with around $280, (unit size not big)

 

[tibor]

WC/Rich U174.5 WIN
Bris/GC U177.5 WIN
Haw/Syd U182.5 LOSS
Coll/Adel O172.5 WIN

Adding Hawthorn SU 2.05 2u (sportsbet promo) WIN
Brisbane SU 2.7 2u (sportsbet promo) WIN and Collingwood SU 1.78 2u (sportsbet promo) REFUND

Solid weekend. Love it when the dogs get up. My graph is looking nice, and i'm on top of the work tipping ladder after a late season first place gridlock. Thank you tigers