AFL Round 18

[Willzzz]

A lot of discussion on the Eagles/Tigers game tonight.

I'll add in my 2 cents.

The points raised by various posters are all valid and I do think the Eagles players will lift for this game after the announcement of Cox's retirement.
However, I think Richmond have turned a corner and have been playing much better in recent weeks. That, coupled with the fact that they travel well and have beaten Eagles at Subi last year leads me to think that the Tigers will win or at least cover the 11.5. The WCE's record at home in recent seasons have been woeful.

 

[Willzzz]

Richmond
Sydney
Adelaide

$500 @ $9.20

BOL lynchy.

I'm not sold on the Crows this weekend. Collingwood have shown that they bounce back well after a poor performance and think they will get the job done against the Crows this week. The Swans are good and the Tigers are value at $2.50+, but I wouldn't have have >50% probability of winning.

Also, I would have thought listing the number of Units staked would be more useful to other punters that the actual amount.

 

[Spitter9]

tigers line/under 172.5 total points i like

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

Also, I would have thought listing the number of Units staked would be more useful to other punters that the actual amount.

Thanks.

I find it hard listing units. I don't have a bank as such and my bet sizes change greatly depending on not only how confident I am but also my financial situation

 

[ElitePunter]

He just PM'd me and told me that his $500 bet is only 0.1 units

 

[Sketi]

I think people are forgetting how crap Richmond have been this season bar one game against Port...

Or maybe we just don't rate West Coast at all, at least the Tigers have a semi decent scalp where as the Eagles have beat no one in the 8, their ceiling is pretty low for mine.

Could go either way but should go down to the wire I reckon.

 

[ElitePunter]

the Eagles have beat no one in the 8

Gold Coast

 

[Keystone agony]

BOL lynchy.

I'm not sold on the Crows this weekend. Collingwood have shown that they bounce back well after a poor performance and think they will get the job done against the Crows this week. The Swans are good and the Tigers are value at $2.50+, but I wouldn't have have >50% probability of winning.

Also, I would have thought listing the number of Units staked would be more useful to other punters that the actual amount.

They didnt exactly bounce back after gold coast when they copped a heap of flack tho

 

[Keystone agony]

Im tempted to go a multi aswell. Maybe 1-39 for tigers. Brisbane at the line, sydney win. Crows win

 

[Spads]

Richmond just came into +7.5.

Am liking west coasts odds now. I wasn't going to bet this game, but anything over $1.70 is going to be hard to resist.

 

[Sketi]

Gold Coast

Um, aren't in the 8?

 

[Spads]

Richmond just came into +7.5.

Am liking west coasts odds now. I wasn't going to bet this game, but anything over $1.70 is going to be hard to resist.

 

[Spads]

Um, aren't in the 8?

Argument is moot when the opposition isn't in the 8. Both teams form against teams around them on the ladder would be more appropriate to compare.

 

[ElitePunter]

Um, aren't in the 8?

They were in the top 8 when West Coast beat them. They had Ablett too.

 

[Punting Deals]

Good promo out for AFL w Sportsbet. 0 risk staking method. I put this bet down earlier this week.

1) Sportsbet: Place $100 on Gold Coast Suns @ odds of 1.44 (Head to Head - Gold Coast)
2) Tom Waterhouse: Place $16 on Brisbane Lions to win by more than 20 points @ odds of 6.2 (My Line - Brisbane - (-20.5))
3) Tom Waterhouse: Place $10 on Brisbane Lions to win @ odds of 2.7 (Straight - Brisbane)
Total Outlay: $126

PROFIT SCENARIOS:

• If Brisbane Lions win you break even.
• If Gold Coast Suns win you make $18

Could put some money on draw too I guess but I decided against it.

Cheers

e: removed hyperlinks

 

[Awesomeau]

3U Deledio <90.5DT @1.87 (lUX)
WCE dont really tag. Deledio is a much better DT scorer than a 90 scorer.

I assume you actually mean Deledio > 90.5?

All over this one. Lids has not only gone >90.5, but >100 in his last 6 vs the Eagles.

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

Good promo out for AFL w Sportsbet. 0 risk staking method. I put this bet down earlier this week.

1) Sportsbet: Place $100 on Gold Coast Suns @ odds of 1.44 (Head to Head - Gold Coast)
2) Tom Waterhouse: Place $16 on Brisbane Lions to win by more than 20 points @ odds of 6.2 (My Line - Brisbane - (-20.5))
3) Tom Waterhouse: Place $10 on Brisbane Lions to win @ odds of 2.7 (Straight - Brisbane)
Total Outlay: $126

PROFIT SCENARIOS:

• If Brisbane Lions win you break even.
• If Gold Coast Suns win you make $18

Could put some money on draw too I guess but I decided against it.

Cheers

The effort some people go to to make $20. As you said it's not even a sure thing without the draw bet

 

[banana_bus]

Gold Coast

Isn't that the game where they led by 40 odd points, only to give up that lead and only got over the line due to McKenzie hitting the post at the death?

Wouldn't really consider it "beating" somebody.

Anyway, not sure how anyone can back Richmond, they are the stainiest team that ever stained.

 

[Punting Deals]

The effort some people go to to make $20. As you said it's not even a sure thing without the draw bet

Yeah fair enough, you could chuck $2 on draw and remove the last 1% of risk I guess. 5 minute job to make $20 isn't that bad is it?

 

[Keystone agony]

I assume you actually mean Deledio > 90.5?

All over this one. Lids has not only gone >90.5, but >100 in his last 6 vs the Eagles.

Sorry mate if I do it quick I get my <> symbols wrong every now and again

 

[CamTinley]

Melbourne obviously are playing a more defensive game style. This combined with the fact it's in Adelaide means Melbourne will struggle to kick any goals, let alone a winning score. While Port have been leaking points a little recently, Alipate Carlisle is a chance this week I believe, a major player in their defensive structure. Reasonably tight melbourne D vs an up and down port/woeful melbourne attack vs strengthened Port D. Also Robbie Gray is probably out, even if he isn't he is likely to be playing not quite right.

Thanks for that, tibor. I missed this at the time. Good call !!

 

[Sketi]

Isn't that the game where they led by 40 odd points, only to give up that lead and only got over the line due to McKenzie hitting the post at the death?

Wouldn't really consider it "beating" somebody.

Anyway, not sure how anyone can back Richmond, they are the stainiest team that ever stained.

I probably wouldn't touch it if not for the Sportsbet special, but I like them to at least get with in 20.

2U Richmond H2H @ 2.30 (Sportsbet)

 

[Keystone agony]

Sydney are the team to put 100 on in the special this week, surely

 

[Keystone agony]

Eagles vs Rich TML Under 157.5 @3.00 (2 unit)

 

[TheKanga]

I think the WCE will win tonight and I have them at the line in a multi.
I don't think i'll make any more bets on the match though, just not much value on either team really.