AFL Round 19

[chrisdon16]

Is it just me or are St Kilda massive overs?! Lions by 29 that's obsurd

 

[Rourke]

Gold Coast huge value

Gold Coast's wins outside of Queensland:

• 2011 Port Adelaide (finished above only Gold Coast on percentage)
• 2012 none
• 2013 Melbourne, GWS (bottom two)

Gold Coast's losing margin has been 40+ in every other interstate match, bar three. Take West Coast 40+ at $3.60 and rake it in. West Coast with a bunch of injuries is still a big favourite at home.

Also Adelaide should be favourite against Port. First, even out the ladder positions by noticing that Adelaide has played Freo twice and Port hasn't played them yet. Port has played GWS twice. Adelaide hasn't played Melbourne. Then look at Adelaide beating Geelong, keeping Freo to 33 IN50s and being unlucky against Collingwood. Adelaide are still in the mix for finals (modulo Essendon) and could easily win their last five. Port's last three results were a belting at home to Hawthorn and two shaky wins against bottom-six teams.

 

[Willzzz]

Gold Coast's wins outside of Queensland:

• 2011 Port Adelaide (finished above only Gold Coast on percentage)
• 2012 none
• 2013 Melbourne, GWS (bottom two)

Gold Coast's losing margin has been 40+ in every other interstate match, bar three. Take West Coast 40+ at $3.60 and rake it in. West Coast with a bunch of injuries is still a big favourite at home.

Also Adelaide should be favourite against Port. First, even out the ladder positions by noticing that Adelaide has played Freo twice and Port hasn't played them yet. Port has played GWS twice. Adelaide hasn't played Melbourne. Then look at Adelaide beating Geelong, keeping Freo to 33 IN50s and being unlucky against Collingwood. Adelaide are still in the mix for finals (modulo Essendon) and could easily win their last five. Port's last three results were a belting at home to Hawthorn and two shaky wins against bottom-six teams.

I'm on the opposite side. Can't believe Port are $1.87.
They are better than the Crows, had a better rest (Crows came back from Perth), have more to play for & their line up is a lot more settled.
Anything can happen in Showdowns but Port are good value IMO.

 

[DangerSloane]

GWS can't run out a game. Melbourne may be ******* abysmal but at least they maintain their level of abysmality (hah, new word!) across a whole game.

GWS/Melb HT/FT would be worth a look.

Shite, that's paying $7.80 - I'm on for a few shekels.

Yeah but if GWS play a first half like last week they'll be 15 goals up against the Demons.

 

[chrisdon16]

Hawthorn/West Coast/Sydney win @ $1.90

 

[chrisdon16]

Saints have beaten Brisbane the last 3 times, all @ The Gabba. Brisbane nothing special. 2U on saints +29.5

 

[Willzzz]

Saints have beaten Brisbane the last 3 times, all @ The Gabba. Brisbane nothing special. 2U on saints +29.5

I like the Saints. Watched the Lions against Port last week and their clearance work is pretty bad.
Think Saint Kilda will get on top in the midfield with Stevens, Hayes, Montagna, Armitage is there.
Only question is whether their forward line can kick enough goals and whether their backline can stop Brisbane's forwards.

 

[chrisdon16]

Got them at +31.5 on tatts

 

[yamahamoto]

Why would you bet so early with reiwoldt, gwilt and Hayes potentially missing?

 

[chrisdon16]

Why would you bet so early with reiwoldt, gwilt and Hayes potentially missing?

IMO, the line will move towards 25ish by the weekend

 

[d3ft]

IMO, the line will move towards 25ish by the weekend

I'd take 25 with Lenny, Voldt and Gwilt all confirmed rather then 31.5 without.

 

[chrisdon16]

Black and Maloney are injured for Brisbane, arguably their two best mids

 

[yamahamoto]

IMO, the line will move towards 25ish by the weekend

If those 3 are confirmed out line will likely to move out to 35ish than 25ish.

 

[sneak]

Multi
north +35.5
bris +29.5
wce h2h
ess +3.5
gws -3.5
wb +45.5

$39 @ 28.55

 

[Lensen]

Luxbet watch:
THey've launched a totalisator-style Dream Team comp at aflfantasypunt.com.au.

my favourite condition in the T&Cs is:

8.2.3 Luxbet may, at its discretion, take a commission of up to 30% of the Wagering Pool for each
Game (including any guaranteed Wagering Pool)



lol 30%

 

[chrisdon16]

Also liking eagles -15.5, suns got beat convincingly at home last week. Now have to travel to Perth. They have a bad away record. Eagles due for a win

 

[Dominion]

WCE line bet of the round. It WAS crows straight out, but Sloane out really hurts (and the price doesn't seem to have moved much. Is Sloane's injury news older than I thought or people just underrating him?)

Also like Bombers to win and saints to cover

 

[the_big_sav]

nth 1st 25
hawks -15
freo U39
bris -15
syd -24
port
ess

@ 53.02

thoughts?

 

[OhhhhhCyril]

North +39.5
GWS win
WCE -15.5
St.kilda +39.5
Carlton +39.5
Adelaide +39.5

@8.81

I like.

 

[I Get Moneyy]

Iv got Carlton and collingwood multi ess not as good without watson

 

[The_Doctor]

Luxbet watch:
THey've launched a totalisator-style Dream Team comp at aflfantasypunt.com.au.

my favourite condition in the T&Cs is:

8.2.3 Luxbet may, at its discretion, take a commission of up to 30% of the Wagering Pool for each
Game (including any guaranteed Wagering Pool)



lol 30%

Lol yeah i was interested in this market until i read their T&Cs

 

[banana_bus]

Iv got Carlton and collingwood multi ess not as good without watson

Watson has been training and is being tipped to play this week.

 

[BuddysBuddy23]

Geel H2H
GWS U39.5
HAW U39.5
WCE U39.5
CARL U39.5
SYD H2H
ADEL H2H

Paying $62.53

 

[chrisdon16]

Bets for the round:
St Kilda +31.5/West coast -15.5 @ $3.65, plus singles.

Hawthorn
West Coast
Sydney
All win @ $1.90

 

[chrisdon16]

Geelong should win comfortably. Earlier in the year was a close game because Geelong kicked 16.16 and north kicked 17.6