You missed one. Is there a reason you didn't predict the Bombers Pies game?
I've tailed your bets the last 2 weeks and it's been great so far, so hope this pays off once again!
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AFLW 2024 - Round 4 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
AFL Round 19
- Thread starter Lensen
- Start date
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You missed one. Is there a reason you didn't predict the Bombers Pies game?
I've tailed your bets the last 2 weeks and it's been great so far, so hope this pays off once again!
chrisdon16
@AFLsystembet
Got the first three in a multi aswell but with saints +31.5
not sure about the total in the Carlton/Freo game. It could be a defensive slog or an open game, never know with Freo. They should shut down Carlton pretty easily, 50/50
phz10
Debutant
- Aug 1, 2013
- 52
- 9
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
Oh k, I'm using TAB, don't know where to find the +31.5, and now that you've said that about the Blues/Freo game I've replaced them with the Cats to win.
chrisdon16
@AFLsystembet
You just greatly improved your odds of winning the multi
Oops! Thanks for picking that up. I've updated the blog with:
Collingwood (59%) 1.855 vs Essendon (41%) 2.02 Predicted margin: 8
Bet $0.11 on Collingwood
I've seen the changes but is Melbourne @2.20 starting to look like value? I suspect a lot of people have started to back GWS because their first win of the year is pretty notable. I'm actually tempted.
chrisdon16
@AFLsystembet
$11 on the dons 40+ @ $9. Hopefully the pies continue to play garbage footy
yamahamoto
Team Captain
There is only 1 game this season Pies played to thier full potential that was against Geelong. For the rest they were s***.
Supercoach @$7.07
Selwood > Johnson - Selwood is flying, has been under 133 only once in the last 7 games.
Enright > Taylor - Enright is far more consistent, you know he'll get 90-100 and Harry can throw up some low numbers.
Thompson > Petrie - Petrie Averages 100 for the year but only 70 against top 4 sides.
Selwood > Johnson - Selwood is flying, has been under 133 only once in the last 7 games.
Enright > Taylor - Enright is far more consistent, you know he'll get 90-100 and Harry can throw up some low numbers.
Thompson > Petrie - Petrie Averages 100 for the year but only 70 against top 4 sides.
X_box_X
The Opportunist
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I'm liking North @ $2.40 to win the first quarter at Bet365.
Similarly, I am confused as to why GWS is paying $2.15 to win the third quarter against Melbourne with Sportsbet. I'm on that.
Similarly, I am confused as to why GWS is paying $2.15 to win the third quarter against Melbourne with Sportsbet. I'm on that.
chrisdon16
@AFLsystembet
Don't know why Carlton are favorites. Freo are a top 4 team and will prove it on the weekend. Carlton have been average all season. IMO amazing value for Freo @ $2 just to win
You can get Jeremy Cameron to kick the most goals in the Melbourne V GWS game @ 2.10 on sportingbet.
Nobody in this game really comes close to him for goals per game. From the 2 lists it goes:
Cameron - 3.1 per game (50 goals)
O'hAilpin - 1.9 per game (13) - NOT PLAYING
Clarke - 1.8 (7) - NOT PLAYING
Patton - 1.7 (5) - NOT PLAYING
Fitzpatrick - 1.4 (11)
Howe - 1.4 (23)
Dawes - 1.1 (12) - NOT PLAYING
Fitzpatrick is capable of a relatively big game but clearly isn't in the class of Cameron and Howe is a little out of form at the moment.
Plus, Frawley is out this week for Melbourne.
If you're like me and were tempted to take Melbourne to win @ ~2.20, this could prove to be a good semi-hedge, because, obviously, if GWS win, the chance of Cameron kicking the most goals is decent. Since round 4 he's lead GWS in goals 7/12 times and pushed 4/12 times.
Nobody in this game really comes close to him for goals per game. From the 2 lists it goes:
Cameron - 3.1 per game (50 goals)
O'hAilpin - 1.9 per game (13) - NOT PLAYING
Clarke - 1.8 (7) - NOT PLAYING
Patton - 1.7 (5) - NOT PLAYING
Fitzpatrick - 1.4 (11)
Howe - 1.4 (23)
Dawes - 1.1 (12) - NOT PLAYING
Fitzpatrick is capable of a relatively big game but clearly isn't in the class of Cameron and Howe is a little out of form at the moment.
Plus, Frawley is out this week for Melbourne.
If you're like me and were tempted to take Melbourne to win @ ~2.20, this could prove to be a good semi-hedge, because, obviously, if GWS win, the chance of Cameron kicking the most goals is decent. Since round 4 he's lead GWS in goals 7/12 times and pushed 4/12 times.
chrisdon16
@AFLsystembet
After last week, this looks like really good value
chrisdon16
@AFLsystembet
Cameron leading goal kicker of the round $8
chrisdon16
@AFLsystembet
If Cameron can kick 7 against the Pies on the MCG, then he is seriously capable of kicking 10+ against the helpless dees at home. It's a question of if the GWS mids can give him good chances. Looking at Melbourne's defenders, only Garland can stop Cameron. Brogan is named at playing at full forward but he will most likely spend time in the ruck.
2u hawkins < 3 goals @ 1.8
still playing slightly injured and against a good fullback, was good last week against a massively undersized saints defence. has one 8-3 for the year. with last week being the first time since round 9 he had cleared.
1.5u cats -19.5 @2.02
still playing slightly injured and against a good fullback, was good last week against a massively undersized saints defence. has one 8-3 for the year. with last week being the first time since round 9 he had cleared.
1.5u cats -19.5 @2.02
Sorry to keep posting my bets one by one but I'm posting them as I find them.
You can get under 205.5 on bet365 @ 1.91.
My maths has the following:
Of the 36 games at Etihad this season, only 11 have gone over 205.5 (30.5%)
Of Norths 10 games at Etihad this season, 4 have gone over (40%)
Of Geelongs 4 games at Etihad this season, 2 have gone over (50%)
Of Norths 17 games this season, 6 have gone over (35.5%)
Of Geelongs 17 games this season, 5 have gone over (29.4%)
The bad news is that when these teams met in R2, it was at Etihad and the total was 220.
You can get under 205.5 on bet365 @ 1.91.
My maths has the following:
Of the 36 games at Etihad this season, only 11 have gone over 205.5 (30.5%)
Of Norths 10 games at Etihad this season, 4 have gone over (40%)
Of Geelongs 4 games at Etihad this season, 2 have gone over (50%)
Of Norths 17 games this season, 6 have gone over (35.5%)
Of Geelongs 17 games this season, 5 have gone over (29.4%)
The bad news is that when these teams met in R2, it was at Etihad and the total was 220.
stewie griffen
Make me an Admin!
Like the Cameron bet, into Hawks and Freo
2u sylvia > 81.5 @ 1.87
has cleared 6 of his last 8. and will finally be up against a team of equal shitness, so will get the standard playing GWS uplift.
1u scully>78.5 @ 1.8
has cleared the last 4 non injured games, and again will benefit on the playing melbourne uplift.
has cleared 6 of his last 8. and will finally be up against a team of equal shitness, so will get the standard playing GWS uplift.
1u scully>78.5 @ 1.8
has cleared the last 4 non injured games, and again will benefit on the playing melbourne uplift.
stewie griffen
Make me an Admin!
Like the Scully spot, the line has shifted up to 81.5 @ 1.75. Still value (for now)
GROTTO
TheBrownDog
- Jul 5, 2013
- 68,069
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Nothing that game was played "outdoors".
