AFL round 3

[Byejune]

Monday Odds (TAB):

Collingwood 1.28 Carlton 3.50
West Bulldogs 1.02 Gold Coast 11.00
Adelaide 1.55 Fremantle 2.35
Richmond 3.30 Hawthorn 1.30
West Coast 1.85 Sydney 1.95
Melbourne 1.20 Brisbane 4.25
Geelong 1.07 Port 7.50
St Kilda 1.72 Essendon 2.05

Initial thoughts:

Some value with Collingwood - they love pumpiin' the blues.

Bulldogs too short - Gold Coast might come and play a qtr and get within a 75 point line. dogs aren't overly impressive atm.

Some value in Adelaide - look for them to come out hard after the break.

Demons too short - although Lions lack marking options up front, the dees ae less than impressive at the moment and the lions beat them convicingly a few weeks ago. Will look at Brisbane line.

- Sydney good value - don't rate WCE at all

- Essendon worth a look - can the saints ever beat them?

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

$1.92 Lines at Centrebet

Collingwood -23.5 Carlton +23.5
West Bulldogs -65.5 Gold Coast +65.5
Adelaide -12.5 Fremantle +12.5
Richmond +22.5 Hawthorn -22.5
West Coast -1.5 Sydney +1.5
Melbourne -30.5 Brisbane +30.5
Geelong -46.5 Port +46.5
St Kilda -4.5 Essendon +4.5

Don't mind the bolded ones for value

 

[twarby]

- Essendon worth a look - can the saints ever beat them?

not without Lenny

 

[Kahuna]

Put your house on Bulldogs into Geelong the $1.11 represents value.

stuff term deposits.

 

[GoldenCoast]

Bulldogs to lead at quarter time is $1.14 on Centrebet!!!

 

[Sasquatch]

Huge value in collingwood. Should be 1.15 not 1.28

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

Essendon first to 25 @ $1.93 is good value IMO

 

[stuziman]

Bombers (if hille returns) into swans is huge value.

 

[Borgsta]

Will most likely do a multi along the following lines

Collingwood - 23.5 - 1.91
Bulldogs -39.5 ~ 1.26
Geelong - 20.5 ~ 1.45

 

[Demon3]

Reckon Hawthorn to kick more behinds then goals @ $1.84 is good value after last weeks effort.

Also

Melb -30.5pts
Coll - 23.5pts
Syd to win
Ess to win

All seem good bets at the moment

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

I think Melbourne will win but by less than what everyone is thinking. I just cant see where the goals are coming from. They were equally as shocking against Hawks as Brisbane were against the Bulldogs. In the end the score line flattered the Demons.

 

[weagles_fan]

Multi - Collingwood win, Bulldogs win, Essendon win, West Coast u39.5, Brisbane u39.5

 

[not quite rite]

multi bet
collingwood u39.5
adelaide u39.5
hawwthorn o39.5
bulldogs o39.5 @ $19.08

 

[JuddyBuddy]

Anyone gonna have a go at Sportbets attendance special for the Coll/Carl game?

Below 80,000 6.00
80,000 - 82,000 7.00
82,001 - 84,000 6.00
84,001 - 86,000 4.50
86,001 - 88,000 4.50
88,001 - 90,000 5.00
90,001 - 92,000 7.00
92,001 + 5.00

I've been saying they should have more crowd markets for a while now, but it's pretty tough to pick within 2k. Surprised 92,001 + is so short, that'd be a massive figure for a H&A game, especially so early in the season.

 

[Sasquatch]

Brisbane have no goal scorers.
Melbourne have no goal scorers.
Melbourne gave Brisbane a pasting last time in Melbourne.
Melbourne's team is better than Brisbane's team.
Melbourne win but will they cover?
Steer clear.

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

Sunny and 25 degrees on a Friday night looks pretty good. If it was a crappy day I would have had a nibble at under 80,000 but im going to leave it.

 

[rhinowce]

Not a bad betting round I can allready see 2 games I'm staying well away from though wce v swans and bombers v saints.

 

[stuziman]

Swans and bomber easily in the end for me...west coast coast good start will come to an end after a few easy games. Bombers will crush an aging lennyless saints outfit.

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

Anyone gonna have a go at Sportbets attendance special for the Coll/Carl game?

Below 80,000 6.00
80,000 - 82,000 7.00
82,001 - 84,000 6.00
84,001 - 86,000 4.50
86,001 - 88,000 4.50
88,001 - 90,000 5.00
90,001 - 92,000 7.00
92,001 + 5.00

I've been saying they should have more crowd markets for a while now, but it's pretty tough to pick within 2k. Surprised 92,001 + is so short, that'd be a massive figure for a H&A game, especially so early in the season.

In to $4.50 with the news that the game will be showed live into Victoria

 

[abs_of_STEELE]

Collingwood over 39.5 @$2.60, too easy!

Last three games against Carlton have been a 48 point win, 53 point win and a 54 point win. And it'll be no different on Friday!

 

[JuddyBuddy]

In to $4.50 with the news that the game will be showed live into Victoria

In to $3 now. Great news tho!

And I think it will still get 80k + no problems.

 

[Syphoncom]

Collingwood over 39.5 @$2.60, too easy!

Last three games against Carlton have been a 48 point win, 53 point win and a 54 point win. And it'll be no different on Friday!

I almost agree but wouldn't for a few reasons (personally).

1. It's the Pies. I find it a bit harder to tip with my head, and on top of that, if they win by 6 goals and I'm worrying about my $$$ rather than the win that would really piss me off.

2. It's the Pies. Yeah we're in damn good form, but I can really see this being a tight game with Carlton wanting to prove they're not just another pretender. I personally feel they are , but I think in a multi it provides enough by itself.

But I really hope you're right


I'm thinking Pies into Dogs all Q into Geelong over 15.

Anything for better odds would include:

into Melbourne H2H into Chelsea (Win).

Seriously considering jumping on Wigan to get relegated as well, that seems quite good. Odds are decent enough ($1.30 last time I checked) which will happen fairly soon. A smacking of 4-0 at Chelsea will ensure they need the points with such a poor GD - with 6 games in hand they won't get out.

 

[Cuzz09]

Swans and bomber easily in the end for me...west coast coast good start will come to an end after a few easy games. Bombers will crush an aging lennyless saints outfit.

Easy games? If you have watched us the last 2 or 3 years we dont have easy games mate....

We have to work hard for a win.

I think it'll be close so I am going:

West Coast Vs Sydney - Either team under 15.5
into Adelaide under 39.5
into Hawthorn under 39.5

Dunno what odds I'll get but thats what Im doing when they come out...

 

[Sasquatch]

I will have no hesitation in taking the Dogs at the line. If it comes in a bit because people are backing Gold Coast, it will be even better.

If the Dogs can dismantle Brisbane by over 11 goals, they can do the same thing to a young Gold Coast outfit.

If Lake comes back Gold Coast will struggle to score a goal through their big men. Bulldogs midfield will dominate the Suns midfield.

Dogs easy.

 

[twarby]

I almost agree

I'm thinking Pies into Dogs all Q into Geelong over 15.

Anything for better odds would include:

into Melbourne H2H into Chelsea (Win).

you wont take a team with a record like this over its last 30 matches

14-1 over 39.5
9-1 over 60

but you are happy to create a 5 leg multi

Pies -23.5

Carlton are pretenders