AFL Round 8

[JuddsABlue]

Sportsbet.com odds out first, as below

Collingwood $1.90
Geelong $1.90

Port Adelaide $2.70 (+15.5)
North Melbourne $1.45 (-15.5)

Hawthorn $1.20 (-28.5) @ Launceston
Fremantle $4.50 (+28.5)

Sydney $1.09 (-41.5)
Melbourne $6.50 (+41.5)

Western Bulldogs $1.16 (-35.5)
Gold Coast $5.25 (+35.5)

Essendon $1.47 (-14.5)
Richmond $2.65 (+14.5)

Brisbane $1.28 (-24.5)
GWS $3.60 (+24.5)

Carlton $1.38 (-16.5)
Adelaide $3.05 (+16.5)

West Coast $1.39 (-17.5)
St. Kilda $3.00 (+17.5)

 

[KP78]

NM line jumped out at me again, I haven't learnt. :-(

Essendon line looks pretty tempting.... (pre research, just first thought)

 

[Duritz]

Collingwood $1.90
Geelong $1.90

Think the Pies will start much shorter, or at least I think they deserve to.

 

[McCrann]

Think the Pies will start much shorter, or at least I think they deserve to.

Agreed, Pies building at the moment. I would jump all over the Pies at $1.90.

 

[Prudster]

The ones that stick out for me are the North line, Freo H2H, the Sydney line, the dons line and the Brissy line.

 

[Thedeftouch]

Teams I'm leaning to cover this week:

Pies
Port
Hawthorn
Melbourne
Richmond
Brisbane
Adelaide
Wesr Coast

 

[anabac]

Early thoughts for mine will be a multi on dogs and lions both at the line. GC and GWS would both have lifted themselves for last weeks game against each other and I reckon they might just be a little bit flat this week.

 

[anabac]

TAB not displaying odds yet but sportsbet.com have the following, thought I would get the ball rolling as it could be another 24 hours before all games are released

Collingwood $1.90
Geelong $1.90

Port Adelaide $2.70 (+15.5)
North Melbourne $1.45 (-15.5)

Hawthorn $1.20 (-28.5) @ Launceston
Fremantle $4.50 (+28.5)

Sydney $1.09 (-41.5)
Melbourne $6.50 (+41.5)

Western Bulldogs $1.16 (-35.5)
Gold Coast $5.25 (+35.5)

Essendon $1.47 (-14.5)
Richmond $2.65 (+14.5)

Brisbane $1.28 (-24.5)
GWS $3.60 (+24.5)

Carlton TBA
Adelaide TBA

West Coast TBA
St. Kilda TBA

Eastcoastcrow prob won't be too happy with you opening up this thread before he did, so watch out.

 

[5 Bucks]

Pies will win. Geelong are in terrible form while the Pies have improved every week. Building nicely, midfield to be boosted by Thomas.
Freo with the points looks good. Lyon will ensure the Dockers keep the pressure on in Tassie, much like the Swans did. 28 points is a healthy start.
Multi Syd and WB and bank the 25%
Essendon will rip Richmond to bits in a clinic. The Tiges can't play 4 quarters, Essendon are in white hot form. Bomber has this team playing supreme footy.
GWS will beat Brisbane. The Lions are too slow through the middle. They even try to water the ground and keep the grass long to take the pace off games.
Carlton will bounce back. Jamo and Hendo will stop the Crows main weapon.
St Kilda are playing Saints footy and it's looking good. WC have been ravaged by injury, but with NicNat back this one becomes a 50/50 at home. Either under 24.5

 

[The_Doctor]

Brisbane -52.5 @ $4

Still having a look but this is one bet i like

 

[Duritz]

Pies will win. Geelong are in terrible form while the Pies have improved every week. Building nicely, midfield to be boosted by Thomas.
Freo with the points looks good. Lyon will ensure the Dockers keep the pressure on in Tassie, much like the Swans did. 28 points is a healthy start.
Multi Syd and WB and bank the 25%
Essendon will rip Richmond to bits in a clinic. The Tiges can't play 4 quarters, Essendon are in white hot form. Bomber has this team playing supreme footy.
GWS will beat Brisbane. The Lions are too slow through the middle. They even try to water the ground and keep the grass long to take the pace off games.
Carlton will bounce back. Jamo and Hendo will stop the Crows main weapon.
St Kilda are playing Saints footy and it's looking good. WC have been ravaged by injury, but with NicNat back this one becomes a 50/50 at home. Either under 24.5

There is absolutely no way the GWS will win again this weekend.

 

[5 Bucks]

There is absolutely no way the GWS will win again this weekend.

Why not? What is so good about Brisbane? I'm not having a go, I just want to know why you're so confident?

 

[Duritz]

Why not? What is so good about Brisbane? I'm not having a go, I just want to know why you're so confident?

We're not much good but we're better than GWS and GCST fairly significAntly. Also we're better at home than away, and GWS are off their first win, almost certainly a mental peak which produces a flat effort the next week.

We're crap but we'll win this easily.

 

[Gift]

Why not? What is so good about Brisbane? I'm not having a go, I just want to know why you're so confident?

I guess Brisbane wont go in complacent since GWS just won. Also match is at the Gabba. Wouldnt be surprised if GWS win, but I think Brisbane will win comfortably

 

[5 Bucks]

We're not much good but we're better than GWS and GCST fairly significAntly. Also we're better at home than away, and GWS are off their first win, almost certainly a mental peak which produces a flat effort the next week.

We're crap but we'll win this easily.

Rockliff has been rubbish this year except for when Melbourne left a player 10kg less than him to wrestle him inside 50. Ward is better.
Redden is the next best mid, but his influence is canceled out by the run of Scully and Palmer. That's where they'll get you. Who else rolls through the middle? Rich is slow as hell. Polkinghorn isn't even AFL standard. Black ain't quick. Polec is behind some of the GWS kids already. Harwood is no better than Shiel. Hanley is out. GWS will have more players who rotate through the middle in Green, Coniglio, Smith, Tyson, Adams, Treloar, Bugg, Power and Townsend. They don't have the same tank as seasoned AFL players but there is more of them. Mohr, Davis, Cornes, Hombsch, Kennedy can take Brisbanes forwards who lack any potency. Huddo will give a contest but he is no better than Giles. Cameron and Folau just have to give a contest up forward and GWS will get the W with their run. Sheedy and Williams won't sit back and let this team go easy because they won last week. They play with spirit and intensity, something Brisbane have shown in only one game, against the worst team in the league at the moment.

 

[Duritz]

Rockliff has been rubbish this year except for when Melbourne left a player 10kg less than him to wrestle him inside 50. Ward is better.
Redden is the next best mid, but his influence is canceled out by the run of Scully and Palmer. That's where they'll get you. Who else rolls through the middle? Rich is slow as hell. Polkinghorn isn't even AFL standard. Black ain't quick. Polec is behind some of the GWS kids already. Harwood is no better than Shiel. Hanley is out. GWS will have more players who rotate through the middle in Green, Coniglio, Smith, Tyson, Adams, Treloar, Bugg, Power and Townsend. They don't have the same tank as seasoned AFL players but there is more of them. Mohr, Davis, Cornes, Hombsch, Kennedy can take Brisbanes forwards who lack any potency. Huddo will give a contest but he is no better than Giles. Cameron and Folau just have to give a contest up forward and GWS will get the W with their run. Sheedy and Williams won't sit back and let this team go easy because they won last week. They play with spirit and intensity, something Brisbane have shown in only one game, against the worst team in the league at the moment.

Ummm... So against the gold coast we were rubbish?

Rockliff - one of the BOG against Geelong, definitely BOG against Gold Coast and probably against Melb too... And you say he's been rubbish bar one game?

Black "ain't quick" - that's it? Lol he's never been quick, news flash, doesn't stop him racking it up. Who will stop Black, and Rockliff?

You're SEVERELY over rating GWS man... As I said we're not much good but theres a big diff bw GWS beating an under performing GCST at Manuka, to beating us at the GABBA.

But it's your money, lose it however you want.

 

[5 Bucks]

Ummm... So against the gold coast we were rubbish?

Rockliff - one of the BOG against Geelong, definitely BOG against Gold Coast and probably against Melb too... And you say he's been rubbish bar one game?

Black "ain't quick" - that's it? Lol he's never been quick, news flash, doesn't stop him racking it up. Who will stop Black, and Rockliff?

You're SEVERELY over rating GWS man... As I said we're not much good but theres a big diff bw GWS beating an under performing GCST at Manuka, to beating us at the GABBA.

But it's your money, lose it however you want.

Pretty sure you played at the Gabba this week and looked like crap. Played with no intensity and showed very little. Doesn't matter who you played, trying is trying.

Ward can go head to head with Rockliff and I know who I'd back to have more influence. It's not the guy who racks up 20 metre chip kicks all day.

McDonald could go to Black. Power will have a crack at him I'd imagine. Townsend and Bugg have been reasonably effective as taggers.

Then what? Redden and Rich. Scully and Palmer will break even with these two.

Then what? Raines, Polkinghorn, Polec, Harwood, Hawksley...
Coniglio, Greene, Smith, Adams, Treloar, Tyson, Shiel
GWS's bottom end midfielders are already better than Brisbane's. They move the ball extremely well and with speed. They'll slice you up in the mids, then it's a matter of what happens in the forward lines.

Davis can go with Brown. Mohr can take Merrett or Patful, depending on which backman you have to waste down there due to having nothing else. The rest have no more influence than 1st year players. Cornes will mop up everything. Maguire, Drummond and McGrath will do the same up the other end. Neither team have a clear advantage here, so the midfield battle is where the game is won and lost. GWS have the edge, so they get the win.

 

[Duritz]

Don't say I didn't try.

Will be interested to hear your post game analysis of where it went wrong.

 

[Piss Poor]

Can you have a multi with a mixture of wins and most disposals, top goal scorer. I know tab said that you can't have two bets like this on the same match but is it possible to have say Carlton 15+,
Lance Frankin most goals, Garry Ablett most disposals,
If there from different matches or is that still not allowed.

 

[Piss Poor]

I was thinking of doing this
Dane Swan most disposals
Liam Anthony most Disposal (cat 2)
Franklin most goals
Sydney +15.5
Cramri most goals
Bulldogs 15+
Brisbane
Scott Thompson most disposals
West coast win

 

[Sunny_]

Early thoughts for mine will be a multi on dogs and lions both at the line. GC and GWS would both have lifted themselves for last weeks game against each other and I reckon they might just be a little bit flat this week.

Suns certainly did not lift themselves for that game. They came out flat with little preparation. They were as flat as they've ever been last week against GWS. If they don't come out breathing fire against the Dogs at TIO, and come out flat AGAIN, then heaven help us.

Not saying GC will win. But I'm backing the Suns to come back hard and have one of their on games. Similar to the Essendon game after the flat St. Kilda game. They usually perform much better after such a down game like that.

It being at TIO will help GC out too. For the Dogs, it's a big trip from Melbourne to Darwin. All lovely and humid too.

 

[Bullfrog5]

Suns certainly did not lift themselves for that game. They came out flat with little preparation. They were as flat as they've ever been last week against GWS. If they don't come out breathing fire against the Dogs at TIO, and come out flat AGAIN, then heaven help us.

Not saying GC will win. But I'm backing the Suns to come back hard and have one of their on games. Similar to the Essendon game after the flat St. Kilda game. They usually perform much better after such a down game like that.

It being at TIO will help GC out too. For the Dogs, it's a big trip from Melbourne to Darwin. All lovely and humid too.

Many of the more experienced Dogs are very familiar with TIO given the home games we've sold there in the last 5-6 years. That said, the +35.5 given to the Suns looks great given it'll be hot, humid, slippery (70% chance of light rain), and Dogs won't want to overdo it given 6 day turnaround before R9 Friday night clash with Cats. Take Dogs 1-39 for better odds.

I also like GWS with the start. -25.5 is a lot for a team that really took it to the Blues until injuries took over and then smashed the Suns 5 goals to zip in the last quarter. The Lions are toothless and while there might be enough strength in the gums to make a meal of the baby Giants, it's hard not to see GWS covering for the 7th time in 8 rounds.

 

[Sunny_]

Fair enough. I'm far more comfortable playing the Dogs at TIO rather than Etihad though.

 

[Bullfrog5]

Fair enough. I'm far more comfortable playing the Dogs at TIO rather than Etihad though.

Absolutely. Dogs will prob rest a couple in prep for Cats, so nab those odds before some clown comes on here and says something stupid like "free money"

 

[Brave Sir Robin]

Initial thoughts on those Sportsbet prices are that Brisbane and Port will start shorter.

I could almost back Collingwood too but that would be based more on speculation.