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The Opportunist
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Opening odds prediction:
Western Bulldogs $3.15
Geelong $1.30
Richmond $4
Hawthorn $1.22
Gold Coast $2.05
Port Adelaide $1.70
St. Kilda $1.75
Sydney $1.95
GWS $13
Essendon $1.01
Adelaide $1.65
Collingwood $2.15
North Melbourne $1.45
Brisbane $2.60
Carlton $1.06
Melbourne $8
West Coast $1.60
Fremantle $2.25
Early thoughts:
Geelong should take care of the Bulldogs. Not only are they the better team, but their backs are too the wall and the desperate. Added to this, the Bulldogs coming off a Darwin break, as well as a back-to-back six day break.
Hawthorn should be too strong for Richmond, but my rough memory tells me the Tigers do OK against Hawthorn. They took care of the Hawks in the NAB Cup (grain of salt), but the Tigers pushed them all the way in 2010 and actually beat them in their premiership year too. Hawthorn 1-39 could be a value bet.
I'd expect Port to beat Gold Coast. The Suns were terrible against the Bulldogs and should have lost by 10+ goals had it not been for the Bulldogs woeful kicking for goal. Port escaped with their second nail biting win of the season and should have their tails up. Factor in the trip back from Darwin for the Suns, also.
I'll be tipping the Swans to get the job done over the Saints, just like in last year's Elimination Final. The Saints are not only coming off a back-to-back six day break, but also travel back from Perth. Meanwhile, the Swans had an easy hitout, so will no doubt be fresher. Real value could be Swans 25+, or at least 15+.
Essendon to account for GWS by 80+.
The old Collingwood thrived on big interstate games, and often won them. That was under Malthouse. This week, Bucks' Pies run into a white hot Crows outfit who are taking the league by storm at the moment. Will the Crows make it four consecutive victories against fellow premiership contenders? The way they're playing at the moment, it's difficult to go past them. Swan and Reid's absence could even mean the $1.65 on offer for the Crows is almost money for jam. Never underestimate the Pies, though. They only needed 10 minutes of footy to obliterate the Crows last year. Maybe just take the Crows at the line, or simply head-to-head.
Is the $2.60 (roughly) on offer worth a bet this week? The struggling North run into a Lions outfit fresh off a huge win against the Giants. It's probably too big of a risk, as the Lions are very up and down, but I certainly wouldn't have much confidence taking the Roos unless they are $1.80+.
Carlton clearly struggling of late, and now will be without Murphy for at least this next fixture. Melbourne in the past have troubled Carlton, so I wouldn't be touching this bet, despite Melbourne being terrible. Melbourne have shown they can turn it on (against the Saints), but it's just a question of which Melbourne outfit comes out to play (the bad one, or the terrible one).
A huge game to end the round. The derby. Freo making a return trip back from Tassie, but at least they have an extra day to recover. Last year's encounter was a beauty, with the Eagles winning by half an inch from a Hayden Ballantyne scorcher from the boundary line, and this one could very well live up to the same expectations. I expect this to be a popular betting game, but I'm not sure which way to go. If I had to go out on a limb and back something, it would be the Eagles, but only head-to-head.
Western Bulldogs $3.15
Geelong $1.30
Richmond $4
Hawthorn $1.22
Gold Coast $2.05
Port Adelaide $1.70
St. Kilda $1.75
Sydney $1.95
GWS $13
Essendon $1.01
Adelaide $1.65
Collingwood $2.15
North Melbourne $1.45
Brisbane $2.60
Carlton $1.06
Melbourne $8
West Coast $1.60
Fremantle $2.25
Early thoughts:
Geelong should take care of the Bulldogs. Not only are they the better team, but their backs are too the wall and the desperate. Added to this, the Bulldogs coming off a Darwin break, as well as a back-to-back six day break.
Hawthorn should be too strong for Richmond, but my rough memory tells me the Tigers do OK against Hawthorn. They took care of the Hawks in the NAB Cup (grain of salt), but the Tigers pushed them all the way in 2010 and actually beat them in their premiership year too. Hawthorn 1-39 could be a value bet.
I'd expect Port to beat Gold Coast. The Suns were terrible against the Bulldogs and should have lost by 10+ goals had it not been for the Bulldogs woeful kicking for goal. Port escaped with their second nail biting win of the season and should have their tails up. Factor in the trip back from Darwin for the Suns, also.
I'll be tipping the Swans to get the job done over the Saints, just like in last year's Elimination Final. The Saints are not only coming off a back-to-back six day break, but also travel back from Perth. Meanwhile, the Swans had an easy hitout, so will no doubt be fresher. Real value could be Swans 25+, or at least 15+.
Essendon to account for GWS by 80+.
The old Collingwood thrived on big interstate games, and often won them. That was under Malthouse. This week, Bucks' Pies run into a white hot Crows outfit who are taking the league by storm at the moment. Will the Crows make it four consecutive victories against fellow premiership contenders? The way they're playing at the moment, it's difficult to go past them. Swan and Reid's absence could even mean the $1.65 on offer for the Crows is almost money for jam. Never underestimate the Pies, though. They only needed 10 minutes of footy to obliterate the Crows last year. Maybe just take the Crows at the line, or simply head-to-head.
Is the $2.60 (roughly) on offer worth a bet this week? The struggling North run into a Lions outfit fresh off a huge win against the Giants. It's probably too big of a risk, as the Lions are very up and down, but I certainly wouldn't have much confidence taking the Roos unless they are $1.80+.
Carlton clearly struggling of late, and now will be without Murphy for at least this next fixture. Melbourne in the past have troubled Carlton, so I wouldn't be touching this bet, despite Melbourne being terrible. Melbourne have shown they can turn it on (against the Saints), but it's just a question of which Melbourne outfit comes out to play (the bad one, or the terrible one).
A huge game to end the round. The derby. Freo making a return trip back from Tassie, but at least they have an extra day to recover. Last year's encounter was a beauty, with the Eagles winning by half an inch from a Hayden Ballantyne scorcher from the boundary line, and this one could very well live up to the same expectations. I expect this to be a popular betting game, but I'm not sure which way to go. If I had to go out on a limb and back something, it would be the Eagles, but only head-to-head.
