All the bull about Hawthorn's easy draw

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Gaborone

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Having seen some reports citing Hawthorn's 'easy' draw in 2024 I couldn't help but check on the data. Given that the AFL constructs the draw using position on ladder for teams 9-18 and then 1-8 based on where the teams finish in the finals series I was amused to find the following. The higher the score the easier the draw with Collingwood being scored 1 as premiers and West Coast 18 as wooden spooners and other teams following suit.
North Melbourne 227
St Kilda 225
Western Bulldogs 223
Gold Coast. 223
West Coast 223
Geelong 220
GWS 220
Essendon 219
Carlton. 218
Port Adelaide 218
Collingwood 217
Richmond 217
Adelaide 215
Melbourne 214
Fremantle 213
Sydney 212
Brisbane 212
Hawthorn 212
 
Are the numbers above based on where the clubs all finished at the end of 2023, or where they are positioned now in 2024?

Should get both sets of figures anyway to do a comparison actually as to:
  • What the planned fixture difficulty was before Round 1 2024
  • What the actual fixture difficulty ended up being after season 2024 completed (we can only do up to current round now, but could revise after finals).
 
The fixture can only be reviewed once the season is done and dusted given some teams rise and some teams drop thus the fixture degree of difficult changes

We have had a fairly good run in the back end of the year (albeit a lot of travel) but our fixture at the start was f***ed

The rating system simply needs to be applied for this year where the teams finish after this weekend
 

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Hawk88 said:
The fixture can only be reviewed once the season is done and dusted given some teams rise and some teams drop thus the fixture degree of difficult changes

We have had a fairly good run in the back end of the year (albeit a lot of travel) but our fixture at the start was f***ed

The rating system simply needs to be applied for this year where the teams finish after this weekend
Click to expand...
I don't think so. Considering the Fox article in question was accompanied by the statement about our "bottom 4 draw" you definitely need to look at it from a pre-season point of view.

Bottom sides are supposed to be given easier draws but we somehow managed to pull double ups on 2 of the prelim finalists, including the reigning premier, and the premier from the year prior, despite being bottom 4. I don't think anyone expected the fall off for Adelaide, Collingwood, Carlton - two of those clubs we played twice and one in the back end of the season. In fact if I remember from last year they were all seen as teams that would be pushing deep this year.
 
KermitJagger said:
I don't think so. Considering the Fox article in question was accompanied by the statement about our "bottom 4 draw" you definitely need to look at it from a pre-season point of view.

Bottom sides are supposed to be given easier draws but we somehow managed to pull double ups on 2 of the prelim finalists, including the reigning premier, and the premier from the year prior, despite being bottom 4. I don't think anyone expected the fall off for Adelaide, Collingwood, Carlton - two of those clubs we played twice and one in the back end of the season. In fact if I remember from last year they were all seen as teams that would be pushing deep this year.
Click to expand...

All the talks just off the back of the fact other clubs wrestling to make the 8 are salty we have Richmond/NM to finish the year.

I’m not sure what the other clubs expected? We finished bottom 4 and drew 2 bottom 4 double ups which is totally normal.

The first 5 rounds nearly broke our season anyway and many people on our board predicted we would start 0-5 and look how hard it’s been to scrape into the 8. We’re literally a game clear on top of the ladder since round 7 or something and we barely just make it. We had absolutely 0 room for error, I’m not sure what makes that an easy draw.
 
extractasam said:
All the talks just off the back of the fact other clubs wrestling to make the 8 are salty we have Richmond/NM to finish the year.

I’m not sure what the other clubs expected? We finished bottom 4 and drew 2 bottom 4 double ups which is totally normal.

The first 5 rounds nearly broke our season anyway and many people on our board predicted we would start 0-5 and look how hard it’s been to scrape into the 8. We’re literally a game clear on top of the ladder since round 7 or something and we barely just make it. We had absolutely 0 room for error, I’m not sure what makes that an easy draw.
Click to expand...
Yeah the talk about North and Richmond to finish is insane given we played 3 of the 4 prelim finalists and last season's predicted big improver in the 4 matches prior, and then Freo and Geelong prior to that.
 
I actually do not think you can accurately assess the draw at all.

Hawthorn this year have beat the Bulldogs before they got going and did not play them again. Beat GWS before they got going. Same for Brisbane. And Hawthorn beat Carlton when they were decimated. Equally the Hawks copped the Scum, Swans, Melbourne and Suns when they were hot. All four have since capitulated.

On top of that Hawthorn have played Richmond, West Coast and Adelaide twice and should go 0-6 from those games - that is easy by any metric.

You cannot measure the draw on ladder positions.

The criticism is fair enough IMO - it up to the Hawks to prove it is wrong.
 
QuietB said:
Hawthorn this year have beat the Bulldogs before they got going and did not play them again. Beat GWS before they got going. Same for Brisbane.
Click to expand...
If we're going the 'before they got going' route...

We are clearly the best team, and have only lost 4 games for the year; those 5 losses at the beginning don't count, it was before we got going...
 
Sirlemsip said:
  • What the actual fixture difficulty ended up being after season 2024 completed (we can only do up to current round now, but could revise after finals).
Click to expand...
As of current Ladder position it would look like:

Port Adelaide 244
Brisbane 233
Geelong 233
Hawthorn 231
West Coast 231
Essendon 229
Gold Coast 227
Sydney 224
Carlton 217
Fremantle 217
St Kilda 214
Western Bulldogs 211
GWS 209
North Melbourne 209
Melbourne 207
Richmond 206
Collingwood 205
Adelaide 186
 
eldorado said:
If we're going the 'before they got going' route...

We are clearly the best team, and have only lost 4 games for the year; those 5 losses at the beginning don't count, it was before we got going...
Click to expand...
Which is another reason trying to assess the draw is a waste of time.

Finals are about to start and the best team will be revealed.
 

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Lets be real - we were only fixtured to play North in Round 24 because the AFL were hoping it would be a wooden spoon cup. Richmond - we all knew they were on the out but I don't think anyone could have predicted they'd be a wooden spooner by Round 23. Then before it? Carlton (premiership fancy), GWS (premiership fancy) Adelaide (almost made finals last year and many thought they were on the up , and it was in Adelaide), Collingwood (reigning premier) Fremantle (top 4 fancy), Geelong (in Geelong). Bar North, our 6 of our last 7 games were against big teams or those that were expected to be decent when the fixture was made. How the hell that's an "easy" fixture I don't know - can't help that we just whacked most of them when it counted.
 
We definitely have had a forgiving draw. Next season will get tougher for sure. We have played Collingwood, GWS, Adelaide, Geelong, Richmond, North Melbourne twice and lost both of the geelong games and one to GWS and Collingwood.
 
Yea, ok, how many pundits were sure that we'd brain the pies, bluuz , even the crows at their home deck before we played them?
Beat lions, dogs, giants. In fact, the 0-5 start along with two losses to the scats what makes our draw look off balance!
 
We were given a shocking draw for a bottom 4 side. Note:
1. We played 2 Prelim finalists twice (Coll and GWS), plus Geelong twice and Adelaide twice (who should have been in finals last year).
2. Normally, the league lines up the bottom 4 sides against each other in first 5 rounds to keep them interested. We only got North in Round 6. Our first 5 rounds fixture was diabolical and once we lost to Essendon, was always going to be 0-5.
3. We got given Gold Coast once and away - where we were known to be terrible.
4. Our home game against Bris was not at MCG (where Bris never win) but was somehow fixtured at Marvel (where Bris always win).
5. We only got given Rich and North second time around at the end, when it was believed that it would not mean much.
6. We played Geelong at Geelong - that should not happen again. Certainly did not happen through 2010s.
7. We travelled to all States this year to play, including Adelaide 3 times.

Compare to Geelong’s amazingly easy draw and then ending off in Round 24 with West Coast, not having played anyone in the 8 for months.
 
Gaborone said:
Having seen some reports citing Hawthorn's 'easy' draw in 2024 I couldn't help but check on the data. Given that the AFL constructs the draw using position on ladder for teams 9-18 and then 1-8 based on where the teams finish in the finals series I was amused to find the following. The higher the score the easier the draw with Collingwood being scored 1 as premiers and West Coast 18 as wooden spooners and other teams following suit.
North Melbourne 227
St Kilda 225
Western Bulldogs 223
Gold Coast. 223
West Coast 223
Geelong 220
GWS 220
Essendon 219
Carlton. 218
Port Adelaide 218
Collingwood 217
Richmond 217
Adelaide 215
Melbourne 214
Fremantle 213
Sydney 212
Brisbane 212
Hawthorn 212
Click to expand...
I think you have made an error somewhere. Carlton had almost identical double up matches as we did except had Port while we had adelaide, so surely they should have a lower score than us

(we also arsed it by having no Rankine in both crows games)
 
Crankyhawk said:
I think you have made an error somewhere. Carlton had almost identical double up matches as we did except had Port while we had adelaide, so surely they should have a lower score than us

(we also arsed it by having no Rankine in both crows games)
Click to expand...
Carlton v Hawks game will count for more to Carlton
 

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All the bull about Hawthorn's easy draw

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