Mega Thread All things Tony Abbott

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Australia

  • Malcolm Turnbull

  • Julie Bishop

  • Scott Morrison

  • Andrew Robb

  • Someone from the LIberal Party other than those above

  • Bill Shorten

  • Someone from the Labor Party other than Shorten


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It's like how Abbott keeps saying he is keping his commitments, instantly it reminds people of his broken promises.
yes. Abbott Yoda does speak.

Tones masters not Jedi.

these drones are not your drones
these drones are not drones they are the australian populace
these drones you are looking for are the drones in the liberal caucus
 

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Another problem for Turnbull is the Nationals.

Truss commented today that the current Coalition agreement was between him and Abbott.

the nats are all bark and no bite, as long as i can remember they've bitched about the libs not listening to them and treating them as an arm of the liberal party and they've never done anything about it.

turnbulls problem is that that he's the liberal parties kevin rudd. the people would support him the party would hate him.
all truss would manage to do is slobber on his arm.
 
How do you think the leadership vote will pan out on Tuesday/Wednesday? Who'll get the most number of votes, and what will be the finishing order of the vote?


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If it happened tomorrow I think Abbott would be out but things might change by next Tuesday. News Limited has finally woken up and are pulling pretty hard against a change of leader. Having said that apparently Abbott has lost complete support amongst the state parties. In NSW they think they might lose 20 seats at the next election if he sticks around opposed to just 10 if they got rid of him.
 
And consider this-say if Turnbull won the vote, the Nationals have threatened to walk away from the Coalition partnership-a situation not seen since the 1987 'Joh for Canberra' episode, which ripped the Coalition to shreds and allow Bob Hawke to win his third term in office.


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I doubt many are taking it that seriously. They may prefer Abbott as PM but they're not going to jeopardize government just because they don't like the alternative (they may demand certain concessions though.)
 
the people would support him the party would hate him.
all truss would manage to do is slobber on his arm.

so, the party is not interested in what the people want. stuns me that they wouldn't want the most popular figure running the country...unless they want to end up like Queensland.
 
so, the party is not interested in what the people want. stuns me that they wouldn't want the most popular figure running the country...unless they want to end up like Queensland.

its all backroom nonsense.

if they thought it would get them re-elected they would be on him quicker than crack whore on a pipe. but the moment they retained power the back stabbing leaking and undermining would start.

unlike rudd turnbull is factional. he represents "the small l" while the big L control the party. Like rudd they would only ever back him if they saw him as their only choice. i just cant see him grabbing the votes.
 
Turnbull is in the same position as Rudd was in the Labor party. He's popular with voters but not with his own party members. So his chances of getting the leadership are pretty slim. Which is a pity because he's easily the best guy for the job.
 
If it happened tomorrow I think Abbott would be out but things might change by next Tuesday. News Limited has finally woken up and are pulling pretty hard against a change of leader. Having said that apparently Abbott has lost complete support amongst the state parties. In NSW they think they might lose 20 seats at the next election if he sticks around opposed to just 10 if they got rid of him.

yeah but federally abbott got power by a slim margin, since then there's been a major push to the right. several "small l" candidates got shafted out of seats when abbott solidified his leadership.

they will be firmly in his sights if he were to win, they would back abbott out of self preservation rather than risk turnbull destroying their career by endorsing someone else at election.

Plus if you read some of the conservative blogs and ring in's they had on ABC 24, he supposedly has a reputation to be very aggressive the far right fear he would attempt to push through many of his more liberal social policies and dare the conservatives to oppose a new leader straight off the bat, which they would be "duty bound" to oppose. thus having the right of the libs blamed squarely for an election defeat.
 
As said previously, Coorey et al believe Abbott would have been long gone but it's taking a while because Turnbull is being strongly considered and the internal ramifications of electing him are significant. This week has been about jostling for positions and ensuring Turnbull (now) supports key components of the Right.

If there was a suitable Right candidate with appeal then they'd be leader already.

Bishop looking less and less likely based on this theory. I still believe she is a big chance. Her lack of media this week only increases my suspicion.
 
Agreed on that. I guess the selection should be made on previous achievements and he will get the leadership via landslide.
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It's also a wonderful coincidence that, including the CLP, there are exactly 75 members of the HoR that caucus with the Liberals so they're 1 short of a majority. It'd be a beautiful thing if the National party decide to pull the trigger on a split leading to the current right wing joke that is the coalition being torn apart. The best bit would be that the reason they don't have a majority is because the dire Sophie Mirabella treated her safe seat with utter contempt. Well played Sophie.
 
Would the PM be prepared to throw Sloppy under the bus to save his own job? His performance his been pitiful and a distinct part of the government's problem. A compromise with perhaps Turnbull as Treasurer, or are the PM and Hockey too intertwined in the Liberal Party narrative in government?
He'd "sell his arse" to become PM IIRC
 
It's also a wonderful coincidence that, including the CLP, there are exactly 75 members of the HoR that caucus with the Liberals so they're 1 short of a majority. It'd be a beautiful thing if the National party decide to pull the trigger on a split leading to the current right wing joke that is the coalition being torn apart. The best bit would be that the reason they don't have a majority is because the dire Sophie Mirabella treated her safe seat with utter contempt. Well played Sophie.

Why would the Nationals do that? Breaking with the LNP would mean that it would be nigh on impossible for either of them to form government again. Say what you want but the nats know the worst day in government would be better than the best day sitting on the cross benches as an essentially irrelevant force.
 
Why would the Nationals do that? Breaking with the LNP would mean that it would be nigh on impossible for either of them to form government again. Say what you want but the nats know the worst day in government would be better than the best day sitting on the cross benches as an essentially irrelevant force.

I think it's just a threat to make sure climate change isn't addressed. As long as Turnbull doesn't bring in an ETS I can't see them going anywhere. But it wouldn't be a bad thing for them if they stopped automatically supporting the Liberals. A bit of differentiation would help them electorally particularly when the Libs are on the nose, allow them to compete for rural Liberal-held seats and give them some bargaining power in a coalition government. Right now they're just 15 automatic votes for the coalition without them having to do anything.
 
The Nationals already are irrelevant, they just haven't realised it yet.

Yeah but if they realise it soon they could regain some relevance. Give it another 5-10 years and if they're still just Liberal party stooges they're a good chance of being close to non-existent not just irrelevant. They're holding on with older voters who have always voted National but as they die off and our population gets more and more urbanised their base will start whittling away particularly with them not standing up for their communities against the Liberals on anything.
 
The thing I find fascinating about Abbott supporters is that their defense of him from day one has been "just wait, he'll learn to do better".

Even those that support him don't think he's currently any good!
 

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Mega Thread All things Tony Abbott

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