Analysis Are we a 2016 threat?

[PieNSauce]

someone made a comment earlier that we are basically adding the below to our best 22. I can't recall the number but I think that we lost this year 5 or 6 games under 10 pints. those 6 players below more then cater for those 10 points. that then puts us on 15/16 wins and on the cusp on the Top 4. Players on the fringe will be Blair / Mccaffer / Goldsack / Toovey all Premiership players. then Witts / White /Frost / Sinclair / Oxley & Maynard who are all capable and adding good depth.
Greenwood
Reid
Sharanberg
Treloar
Aish
Howe

You need to get closer than ten pints to be a threat!

 

[Prestige Presti]

I think the basis of Premiership windows begins with the talent on the top of the ladder and how long they can perform at the highest level, which this year was West Coast, the Hawks, Fremantle and Sydney.

I look at those teams and West Coast aside, I can't say with certainty they will be any deal stronger in 2016, if anything most of those teams will be weaker, due to retirements and the age of their core getting older, despite winning the premiership, Hawthorn looked a lot more vulnerable this year than in 2014, they just had the experience and home ground advantage to push them over the line.

With the additions we have made, and the natural improvement of our youngsters, I can say that the gap has certainly closed, and based on results this year, that gap was between 1-3 goals of the best teams.

whilst I agree with Bucks that our sweet spot is in 2017-2018, we are every chance to push the top teams all the way in 2017, we have a natural advantage of playing in front of big crowds at the MCG regularly, and should we make finals, that could be a huge benefit.

Looking at the progress that teams like West Coast and the Doggies have made in 2015 despite their injuries and off season losses, it's almost naive to say that it is beyond the realms of possibility that a young and immensely talented team like ours couldn't exceed expectations and rise to the top portion of the ladder next season.

 

[motr]

Games missed through injury is measured and is a stat you can find somewhere. They do it on a club by club comparison and we were bottom third this year if I remember rightly. At least Reid did get back on the park this year and Greenwood was never going to be critical to our success. We struggled most when Reid and Greenwood did get in the team.. they weren't playing first half of the year remember. We had a good injury year compared to the last 3. Not a single acl this year and injuries do happen to every team you know.

We got Reid back just as the the door was shutting on our finals chances. Cloke was a pretty big out as well.

 

[Nuffsaid]

The strategy that has been adopted shows enormous faith in Moore. We have done well in building midfield depth but have completely ignored genuine kpf talent for quite a while now which could be genius or could be disaster.

 

[NT.Thunder]

The strategy that has been adopted shows enormous faith in Moore. We have done well in building midfield depth but have completely ignored genuine kpf talent for quite a while now which could be genius or could be disaster.

I think the recruiting of Howe definitely helps Moore. Howe plays taller than what he is and clubs will need to think carefully now when allocating defenders with Cloke, Moore and Howe and a resting ruck forward. Cloke used to attract at least 2 defenders more often than so we should capitalize on this.

A crumbing forward is a bigger requirements IMO

 

[jimmy35]

Finals yes. Flag no unless there's some form of miracle run.

Need a fit year from Reidy and a good forward line structure from somewhere. Hopefully whatever they've been piecing together down there falls into place

 

[domin8tors]

You need to get closer than ten pints to be a threat!

maybe that could be AFL Summer league. when the team kicks a goal they all have to take pint.

 

[The Dawes]

we should be on an upward trajectory again now.

2016 - top 8, most likely in the last 2-3 spots.
2017 - should be challenging for top 4.
2018 - should be looking to challenge for a flag.

We will need Pendles, Cloke, Brown & Reid to stay healthy but with the emergence of our 18-22 age group this is the path we should be aiming for.

 

[Pies_10]

Should play finals somewhere from 6-8th but not a premiership threat yet.

 

[Countrypie]

I dont think we can win it next year BUT

Hawthorn's age profile is going south. They're very good. They will miss Lake and Hale . They are gettable
West Coast have lost some depth and had a terrific run last year. Everything would have to go right for them to repeat their season. theoretically their draw will be harder next year
Freo. I thought this year was last roll of the dice. Bennel could go either way. Pavlich is not what he was. No key forwards. Won't win it. May fall.
Sydney. Buddy would have to win the brownlow for them to hold their place. Old. Will fall
Nth. Just fell into the 8 Have an ageing list. Will struggle.
Footscray. Excitement machine. Willl have harder draw and may have a POrt like year after such a meteoric rise
Richmond. Have never impressed me . Still don't
Adelaide. People are saying Seedsman is in their best 22 - that says it all. Will miss Danger
Port. May win the flag
Geelong. Nope. Net gains= Dangerfield. Henderson is just a player, The other Selwood won't train till Xmas and couldn't get a game at West Coast. They've lost Stevie J who pulled them out of the poo at least every other fortnight. Their kids aren't that good.
GWS - will play finals this year.
US: I'm excited.

 

[HeavyPop]

No, we haven't even played finals in two years. 2018 is where the club will look to challenge.

 

[MarkT2]

Have to disagree with you.

Hawthorn's list is better than ours. But only for probably next year.

Who's list would you have ahead of ours? We have way more depth than the dogs and we have added some A grade talent to match their top end talent. As I said, depth wise, we shit all over the dogs.

I wouldn't have Richmond ahead of us, nor would I have Sydney or Freo now. On paper, we are every bit as good as West Coast. They got on a run this year, coupled with an easy draw and their enormous home ground advantage, and things rolled on for them until they were stopped in their tracks on grand final day.

The question was about 2016. On that basis every team that made the 8 is at least as well placed as we are. Then there are a few clubs in a similar position to us. How the list develops down the track remains to be seen but right now there is no way we have one of the best 4 lists.

 

[jjsmitty8]

Flag threat is a big stretch, but it's a long season and you never know your luck. In recent years we've watched teams like Port and the Bulldogs came from the abyss and play out of their skin.

I'm not going to rule out a flag until it's absolutely impossible. North showed that ladder position is just a number when playing finals, they were a week away from the big dance. We even showed in 2007 that not making the top 4 doesn't automatically rule you out. We pushed the eventual premiers to within a goal in the prelim.

We've had two seasons now where we've been 8-3. The goal next season will to try and maintain our place if we can get there again. Hopefully we can at least be 6-5 after 11, press for finals, and then it's anybody's ball game. Stranger things have happened. The whole "we're building for 2017 or 2018" is bollocks. You don't have to settle for that, players won't settle for that. They're competitive, they don't want to wait two or three years. If you're not going into a season trying to win a flag, then you're wasting your time.

 

[the mighty T]

A threat to win the premiership? Probably not. But I do expect to see a resurgence and to play finals again next year. Challenging for the title though requires a lot of things to go right for us, and a lot of things to go wrong for the other contenders.. the latter of which certainly hasn't been achieved in this trade period.

2015 Top 8

Fremantle - Marginally improved their list after the trade window (whilst Bennell is a huge get, they're an old list)
West Coast - Added in Jetta for the surplus Sinclair and Redden. Oh and their two key backs are coming back from injury.. improved
Hawthorn - Hale, Lake and Suckling out means the champs might be a fraction worse off next year
Sydney - Lost Jetta but gained a better ruckman.. I think they break even, maybe improve once you consider their academy draftees
Richmond - Made the right call trading in Yarran and didn't lose anything in the process.. Lets say they break even
Bulldogs - Added Suckling through FA and get Libba back.. that's improvement in my book
Adelaide - Lost Dangerfield.. they'll be a little worse
North Melbourne - Added in Jed Anderson, but with the way their list is structured, that addition is mitigated by ageing players.. break even

The Challengers

Geelong - Sold the farm in order to wrench open their premiership window. You imagine they'll make finals given the improvement
Port Adelaide - Toumpas and Dixon in to compliment an already talented list means they improve.. I'd be shocked if they missed finals

Collingwood

We have done a great job at the trade table with our additions and haven't sacrificed anything that would be considered detrimental to short term success. Given how we performed this year, you would assume that our natural progression plus our additions would be enough to carry us into the top 8.

My Best 22 (Age end of 2015, Games played)

FB: M. Williams (22, 57), N. Brown (27, 114). J. Frost (23, 44)
HB: T. Langdon (21, 41), B. Reid (26, 104), M. Scharenberg (20, 4)
C: T. Varcoe (27, 160), T. Adams (22, 61), S. Sidebottom (24, 143)
HF: D. Swan (31, 257), T. Cloke (28, 233), A. Fasolo (23, 69)
FF: J. Elliott (23, 72), D. Moore (19, 9), J. Howe (25, 100)
Foll: B. Grundy (21, 41), S. Pendlebury (27, 214), A. Treloar (22, 79)

Int: J. Crisp (22, 40), D. De Goey (19, 16), J. White (27, 107), B. Sinclair (24, 50)

Emerg: T. Goldsack (28, 137), L. Greenwood (26, 82), B. Maynard (19, 9)

Pushing into the side: J. Aish (19, 32), J. Marsh (20, 5), T. Broomhead (21, 19), J. Ramsay (21, 7)

If you look at that list, its not a bad 22 and very difficult to pick, but I still feel that the age profile is a little young. Also, that back 6 is sorely lacking in experience without the presence of Goldsack and Toovey, but I'd be more inclined to push the younger fellas than to put the older guys out there.

The midfield group now looks really strong and quite deep.. deep enough to allow someone like Pendles to play a little behind the ball and setup for us. Looking forward to seeing it in full flight, but is definitely the strong point of our team.

Funnily enough, there is a tonne of games experience to go with the obvious talent in that forward setup. Moore is someone who needs to be exposed to a higher level of football in order for him to develop.

Can we contend?

Probably not next year, but we're on the right track for 2018.

 

[Rusty22]

5-8
Hoping for a bulldogs like year.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

To get into the 8 in 2016 we need to dislodge one of the following:

1 Fremantle - No
2 West Coast Eagles - No
3 Hawthorn - No
4 Sydney Swans - Maybe
5 Richmond - Yes
6 Western Bulldogs - No
7 Adelaide Crows - Maybe
8 North Melbourne- Yes

So there seems to be two spots available and i think that we would be competing for those two spots against:

Geelong
Port
St.Kilda - will be big improver

Will depend on things already mentioned plus our likely draw.

Might just sneak into 8th position which will be good experience.

Most years suggest two sides drop out
Sometimes more

Being two i see either of swans, adelaide, richmond, north even the dogs dropping out maybe

Thats how it goes sp yes we can make it

Like every side we need more things going well than not
BUT the list is better and the youngers ones have had another pre season etc

So onward and upward

 

[PIEWITHSAUCE]

I voted 5-6 which I think is realistic subject to a decent run with injury.

 

[Countrypie]

Most years suggest two sides drop out
Sometimes more

Being two i see either of swans, adelaide, richmond, north even the dogs dropping out maybe

Thats how it goes sp yes we can make it

Like every side we need more things going well than not
BUT the list is better and the youngers ones have had another pre season etc

So onward and upward

WIth the current sides in teh 8 the question has to be asked is there any improvement left?
WIth Hawthorn, Freo, Sydney, Nth and probably Adelaide the answer to my mind is no.
THe questions then become can we bridge the gap? and will they drop off?
I think we will improve significantly next year.
Of the 5 teams I just listed I expect us to pass Nth, Sydney and Adelaide. Maybe Freo as well

 

[Saintly Viewed]

At the end regardless of what any of us thinks or postulates

The players have to do it!
They have to earn it!
Only they will determine the outcome!

Over to you team.....

 

[Saintly Viewed]

WIth the current sides in teh 8 the question has to be asked is there any improvement left?
WIth Hawthorn, Freo, Sydney, Nth and probably Adelaide the answer to my mind is no.
THe questions then become can we bridge the gap? and will they drop off?
I think we will improve significantly next year.
Of the 5 teams I just listed I expect us to pass Nth, Sydney and Adelaide. Maybe Freo as well

Even, hawthorn could fall a bit say lose 8 games or so and end up 6th or so.
Thats how it goes, maybe

It all starts again 2016

 

[Snell1234]

The question was about 2016. On that basis every team that made the 8 is at least as well placed as we are. Then there are a few clubs in a similar position to us. How the list develops down the track remains to be seen but right now there is no way we have one of the best 4 lists.

You still couldn't tell me who's list is better.

 

[MarkT2]

You still couldn't tell me who's list is better.

Yes I did but to save you thinking, in respect of 2016 results, everyone who made finals last year. Port Adelaide from outside the 8 potentially as well. Adelaide are the one from inside the 8 that has a question mark. They've lost their best player and who knows how far emotions effected them positively or negatively last year.

To be more specific, Hawthorn are miles ahead of us. yes they are older but so what. They are better. They've won 3 and played in 4 straight. They've lost an average ruckman but still have McEcvoy. They've lost lake but have Fralwey because they knew he was going - in fact hey pushed him out quite deliberately. Probably the same for Hale. I can't see why WCE would go backwards. Sydney will be about the same. Freo will be about the same. Dogs are rising. North have lost nothing. I think they will start better next year. They are no chance of winning it but they will be very strong 5-8 contenders. Same for Richmond. They filled a hole and they may improve a bit. It's hard to see Geelong going backwards having picked up Dangerfield. They should improve. GC will most likely have a better injury run and GWS will continue to develop. They will be our competition for moving up the ladder.

 

[upnsmoke]

Unless if its a Key position player, it takes a season to assimilate the "system" properly with the new players.

Port Adelaide, Gold Coast will also be pushing for top 8.... so I think Pies will compete with these guys. Then after a year of familiarity and system-implementation, the Pies can repeat their 2009 performance... then in 2018, hopefully they can repeat 2010's performance and result.

 

[Schraderbrau]

View attachment 187311

This is actually a bit scary when you consider that the only veteran there is Swan and so many players listed are so young.

 

[Greening Magic]

Anywhere from 4-10. Injuries again will play a big part in a young developing team.
Also no can be sure the rate of improvement in our 0-50 game players.
You can add, Greenwood, Marsh, Shaz, and Reid as additions to Treloar, Howe and Aish due to their limited games in 2015.

We will have the Blues twice again so that's a good start.
If we have a relative clean bill of health and go backwards then it would be a concern, but given a good run of injuries I'd be pretty confident that won't happen.
We still need games in that inexperienced group.

I'll say 8th.