AUKUS

[QuietB]

MSN

www.msn.com

As most of you who follow this thread know, I’m quite hawkish on defence issues despite being a centre left with the rest of my politics. I’ve been outspoken in my beliefs that the nuclear subs are the right thing for us.

Saw this article this morning, essentially the uk built two big fancy carriers - they don’t even have a complete carrier group to protect one of them, so the dogma has been that one is sailing, one is in refurb / downtime (whatever you pussers call it)

Now they are saying there is not enough funding for both and that they are looking at flogging one off to …. Hmmmm who would we like to grab it…. Ah the Aussies, those cub’s are just the ticket. They don’t lose too much face as let’s face it, they are family - we can legit share the resource and the expenses without bankrupting either of us and between both navies can provide an adequate carrier group.

Now id be lying if I said i wouldnt love this, its a carrier and its easily the best non seppo carrier in the world. It’s a real point of pride, it’s a big boys toy and it shows that we can blah blah blah ……Collective national ego trip etc.



Should we do it?

FUNK NO!!!

As much as I’d love to have a fleet air arm again and bemoan the loss of our old fleet air arm (and my subsequent decision to go army not navy pilot) when the nasty argentoolians showed England that selling us invincible was a daft idea for a nation that has a colonial past and far flung remnants of empire.

The facts are that carriers are for force projection. Carriers are there so you can take your navy and troop carriers over to the other side of the globe and demand that people with funny accents do what you say or else. Or don’t worry about saying anything, just take their s**t and call them sooky lalas.

We have zero need for this, if we are going to be a part of that it will be under the auspices of Uncle Sam and they have all those toys, we don’t need them. If however Uncle Sam is cut down with old age or not available due to orange… or whatever, a carrier is just going to complicate things for our navy - especially given that basically every naval asset we have would have to surround it in an interlocking defence INCLUDING the AUKUS subs, which kinda defeats the purpose of them. If we are ever threatened with invasion / blockade - I want the AUKUS subs out harassing the enemy convoy not sitting around our carrier playing defence.

Thoughts?

Have we even got enough planes for a carrier? Serious question.

As you say they are for force projection and surely Australia has little interest in that. And if we did get one China would completely lose their minds and make it a priority to destroy our economy this time - which they can do.

 

[kranky al]

Have we even got enough planes for a carrier? Serious question.

As you say they are for force projection and surely Australia has little interest in that. And if we did get one China would completely lose their minds and make it a priority to destroy our economy this time - which they can do.

We do, however the planes we have are completely unsuitable. The uk carriers have no catobar capability - catapult assisted take off - barrier assisted recovery.

So they use the f35b with the ducted stovl capacity

We have the f35a which isn’t capable of marine ops. It likes nice long runways.- the f35c is the catobar carrier beefed up f35 with nice strong undercarriage for landing on catobar carriers


(See this instructional video that shows why the difference is necessary):



We would need to purchase f35bs or updated harriers which I doubt you could even do.

 

[nut]

Build drones.., anyone who thinks the next war won’t be fought with drones is a nuffy…


The way we should.be defending our way of life is to become of independent …

 

[Carringbush2010]

I listened to the Global roaming podcast on 'Can Australia defend itself', an anti AUKUS advocate, Hugh White has cred in defence strategy. There are also another in this article who hold an opposing position to Aukus. Allan Behm, with credibility on defence strategy.

'The whole thing will just come apart': Why some defence experts are worried about AUKUS

As Australians wait for the nuclear-powered subs that come with the AUKUS deal, some defence experts are worried the whole thing could fall apart.

www.abc.net.au

An excerpt on Hugh White's view

Scrap AUKUS, totally rethink defence?​

Meanwhile, Professor White, from the anti-AUKUS camp, is advocating a totally different approach to AUKUS.

He says Australia should pivot away from the US and think about "how we can develop our national capability to defend ourselves independently against a major Asian power?"

"Traditionally, Australians have believed that as a very big continent with a relatively small population … we couldn't possibly defend ourselves. But I don't think that's right."

But he says this would need a change in priorities.

"I'd focus overwhelmingly on making it as difficult as possible for any country to project power by sea and air towards Australia," he says.
"[And] we have enormous advantages, in particular, those vast maritime approaches which surround our continent."

His laundry list of recommendations includes a large fleet of conventional submarines, more aircraft, long-range missiles and sea mines.

But his plan comes with a massive increase in spending.

"Instead of the 2 per cent of GDP which we're spending at the moment [on defence], we'd need to spend between 3 and 3.5 per cent of GDP," he says.
Here is the podcast if anyone wants to listen

Can Australia defend itself? - ABC listen

Big decisions are being made about the future of Australian defence, with very little public debate. Highly esteemed defence strategist Hugh White is trying to inspire this national conversation. He joins Geraldine and Hamish to discuss why he thinks AUKUS is a mistake and what he thinks...

www.abc.net.au

In any case, whether you're for or against Aukus, and consider Mr White's theory, either way it'll come with a hefty bill. Further, we can't just sit idly by in the status quo and hope uncle sam and king would come to our aid. (Even though they would come to our aid, unless the orange fruit cake wins office).

Like it or not (which I don't), we've become a middle power with influence and are viewed as an ally strengthening threat. That means we're a target now (and probably have been for some time).

This thread ties in relevance with the thread 'Australia, a growing geopolitical lap dog and not just in the Indo pacific'

Edit nut I wouldn't be surprised if the defence brains trust have taken your drones idea into consideration, but that would only be one of many different considerations.

 

[peetoo]

Invest in making us less reliant on shipping lanes. Reverse the denuding of refineries or move more into renewables

 

[QuietB]

I listened to the Global roaming podcast on 'Can Australia defend itself', an anti AUKUS advocate, Hugh White has cred in defence strategy. There are also another in this article who hold an opposing position to Aukus. Allan Behm, with credibility on defence strategy.

'The whole thing will just come apart': Why some defence experts are worried about AUKUS

As Australians wait for the nuclear-powered subs that come with the AUKUS deal, some defence experts are worried the whole thing could fall apart.

www.abc.net.au

An excerpt on Hugh White's view

Scrap AUKUS, totally rethink defence?​

Meanwhile, Professor White, from the anti-AUKUS camp, is advocating a totally different approach to AUKUS.

He says Australia should pivot away from the US and think about "how we can develop our national capability to defend ourselves independently against a major Asian power?"

"Traditionally, Australians have believed that as a very big continent with a relatively small population … we couldn't possibly defend ourselves. But I don't think that's right."

But he says this would need a change in priorities.

"I'd focus overwhelmingly on making it as difficult as possible for any country to project power by sea and air towards Australia," he says.
"[And] we have enormous advantages, in particular, those vast maritime approaches which surround our continent."

His laundry list of recommendations includes a large fleet of conventional submarines, more aircraft, long-range missiles and sea mines.

But his plan comes with a massive increase in spending.

"Instead of the 2 per cent of GDP which we're spending at the moment [on defence], we'd need to spend between 3 and 3.5 per cent of GDP," he says.
Here is the podcast if anyone wants to listen

Can Australia defend itself? - ABC listen

Big decisions are being made about the future of Australian defence, with very little public debate. Highly esteemed defence strategist Hugh White is trying to inspire this national conversation. He joins Geraldine and Hamish to discuss why he thinks AUKUS is a mistake and what he thinks...

www.abc.net.au

In any case, whether you're for or against Aukus, and consider Mr White's theory, either way it'll come with a hefty bill. Further, we can't just sit idly by in the status quo and hope uncle sam and king would come to our aid. (Even though they would come to our aid, unless the orange fruit cake wins office).

Like it or not (which I don't), we've become a middle power with influence and are viewed as an ally strengthening threat. That means we're a target now (and probably have been for some time).

This thread ties in relevance with the thread 'Australia, a growing geopolitical lap dog and not just in the Indo pacific'

Edit nut I wouldn't be surprised if the defence brains trust have taken your drones idea into consideration, but that would only be one of many different considerations.

It is interesting that all the US “preppers” have set up camp in southern NZ and not southern Australia.

 

[Carringbush2010]

It is interesting that all the US “preppers” have set up camp in southern NZ and not southern Australia.

Could you please elaborate?

 

[barreness]

It is interesting that all the US “preppers” have set up camp in southern NZ and not southern Australia.

Legit, this is numero uno why I think this is a bad move. I really don't want garden island(perth) having a housed nuclear sub fleet. Makes you a target when the nukes fly, let me die from the fallout 5 years later thanks

Similar argument for pine gap, I support defence, not offence which these things clearly are

The billionaire preppers are mad though, poo down the ventilation shaft or internal rebellion will finish them quickly

 

[QuietB]

Could you please elaborate?

Why Silicon Valley billionaires are prepping for the apocalypse in New Zealand | New Zealand | The Guardian

<strong>The long read</strong>: How an extreme libertarian tract predicting the collapse of liberal democracies – written by Jacob Rees-Mogg’s father – inspired the likes of Peter Thiel to buy up property across the Pacific

amp.theguardian.com

 

[QuietB]

Legit, this is numero uno why I think this is a bad move. I really don't want garden island(perth) having a housed nuclear sub fleet. Makes you a target when the nukes fly, let me die from the fallout 5 years later thanks

Similar argument for pine gap, I support defence, not offence which these things clearly are

The billionaire preppers are mad though, poo down the ventilation shaft or internal rebellion will finish them quickly

NZ have got it right, keep your head down and go about your business. Rely on your relative isolation for security.

I have no idea what Australia was trying to do with the megaphone diplomacy Morrison was running.

 

[peetoo]

It is interesting that all the US “preppers” have set up camp in southern NZ and not southern Australia.

It is prime winning placement t in the old board game ‘risk’ perhaps they play that

 

[Carringbush2010]

Why Silicon Valley billionaires are prepping for the apocalypse in New Zealand | New Zealand | The Guardian

<strong>The long read</strong>: How an extreme libertarian tract predicting the collapse of liberal democracies – written by Jacob Rees-Mogg’s father – inspired the likes of Peter Thiel to buy up property across the Pacific

amp.theguardian.com

Thanks for that.

In short we have a capitalist billionaire who will flee to NZ if if all goes awry in the US.

Little if any relevance to the Auskus deal. This is more to do with the US internal implosion.

So if you could please state your point?

 

[Carringbush2010]

NZ have got it right, keep your head down and go about your business. Rely on your relative isolation for security.

I have no idea what Australia was trying to do with the megaphone diplomacy Morrison was running.

It's not about keeping your head down and silently going about your business.

A trilateral agreement with two superpowers is not something you can sweep under the carpet and keep quiet.

The 'noise' is / was (imo) a deliberate ploy to warn those that oppose liberal democracy (read Vlad and Xi) of the alliance strengthening.

I very much doubt that Aus instigated this trilateral agreement, we were probably asked to (read told to).

Wasn't just scummo parroting look at us, it's all parties involved. Albo, Biden and Sunak have also 'parroted' on a wharf in the US

So no, it's not something that can be kept hush hush.

 

[barreness]

It's not about keeping your head down and silently going about your business.

A trilateral agreement with two superpowers is not something you can sweep under the carpet and keep quiet.

The 'noise' is / was (imo) a deliberate ploy to warn those that oppose liberal democracy (read Vlad and Xi) of the alliance strengthening.

I very much doubt that Aus instigated this trilateral agreement, we were probably asked to (read told to).

Wasn't just scummo parroting look at us, it's all parties involved. Albo, Biden and Sunak have also 'parroted' on a wharf in the US

So no, it's not something that can be kept hush hush.

So liberal, so democratic

 

[ferball]

Legit, this is numero uno why I think this is a bad move. I really don't want garden island(perth) having a housed nuclear sub fleet. Makes you a target when the nukes fly, let me die from the fallout 5 years later thanks

Similar argument for pine gap, I support defence, not offence which these things clearly are

The billionaire preppers are mad though, poo down the ventilation shaft or internal rebellion will finish them quickly

Avalon afb near Toowoomba can land B2 bombers, and a bunch were housed there last year for months. The prevailing winds will dump that fallout (cos Amberly and Toowoomba itself will be nuked now) on everything from the Sunshine Coast south to Ballina.

 

[Festerz]

The AUKUS nuclear sub mirage is getting more hazy by the week.

AUKUS doubts after US moves to cut production of Virginia class subs - InDaily

www.indaily.com.au

Macron on hearing that the US/UK cannot provide Australia with the submarines they need..

 

[ShanDog]

Government had better pull a rabbit out of the hat to make the subs deal work with the US. They are vital assets in the plan for the deterrence of China and sovereignty over our waters.

 

[ShanDog]

It is interesting that all the US “preppers” have set up camp in southern NZ and not southern Australia.

NZ has us basically directly between China and themselves as a buffer. Makes sense.

 

[QuietB]

Going well - this is from the Saturday Paper

 

[Saint]

SO they have the capability of building 2 subs, but only ordering one.

If we wanted one, we could order another? I thought the reason we weren't getting one until 2032 was because they couldn't build them fast enough. But now they're saying they can't afford it?

I assume we're giving them no money since they're not building any subs for us? Time to go back to France or Japan with our tails between our legs?

 

[QuietB]

SO they have the capability of building 2 subs, but only ordering one.

If we wanted one, we could order another? I thought the reason we weren't getting one until 2032 was because they couldn't build them fast enough. But now they're saying they can't afford it?

I assume we're giving them no money since they're not building any subs for us? Time to go back to France or Japan with our tails between our legs?

Or alternatively we all accept there is no boogie man about to imminently attack Australia and we just don't bother getting subs at all.

 

[Saint]

Or alternatively we all accept there is no boogie man about to imminently attack Australia and we just don't bother getting subs at all.

I think pretending there are no potential enemies is naiive. I'm not convinced manned submarines are the future of warfare either, though.

If we just got bloody good at drone boats and aerial drones we might not need a huge military, just a large Military Industry who can spend the rest of the year making recreational/industrial drones.

 

[QuietB]

No idea where to put this - love it though

 

[QuietB]

lol

US won’t guarantee Australia will have complete control of Aukus submarines

US Aukus commitment should not be doubted, says assistant secretary of state, while refusing to be drawn on lingering concerns about the sale of nuclear submarines

www.theguardian.com

 

[peetoo]

I think pretending there are no potential enemies is naiive. I'm not convinced manned submarines are the future of warfare either, though.

If we just got bloody good at drone boats and aerial drones we might not need a huge military, just a large Military Industry who can spend the rest of the year making recreational/industrial drones.

Except in aus you are banned from flying anywhere interesting enough to photograph