Aussies Aussie Watch - Paris 2024 - Paralympics 28 Aug - 8 Sep

[Drummond]

Hmmm women’s 4x100. Not sure what to think. Area record?? To me it looked like the second baton change was bad, runner was a little slow when receiving the baton. Lewis hung in there.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Hmmm women’s 4x100. Not sure what to think. Area record?? To me it looked like the second baton change was bad, runner was a little slow when receiving the baton. Lewis hung in there.

I thought the first change between Connolly and Masters was the dodgy one to my eyes. That's a decent effort to break the national record. That last change between Edwards and Lewis, with the camera being in a great position, looked bloody smooth.

The relay girls had set two previous national records this year, breaking the previous one set in 2000 at altitude in South Africa.

42.99 Pietersburg SAF 18/3/2000
42.94 Sydney AUS 23/3/2024 Lane, Masters, Connolly, Lewis
42.83 Nassau BAH - 4/8/2024 world relays heat run finished 2nd. Lane, Masters, Connolly, Lewis
42.48 London GBR 20/7/2024 Connolly, Masters, Edwards, Lewis

The girls ran 43.02 in the final of the world relays final in Nassau. A 42.48 would have won a silver behind USA 41.85. The British team's run today of 41.55 is world leading this year. France ran a 42.10 and GBR 2nd team 42.46.

 

[AdelaideGT]

Now seeing how Matt Denny does at the discus.

If you want to watch you will need to VPN to Germany.

Livestream | Werfercup in Schönebeck | MDR.DE

Der 18. Schönebecker SoleCup präsentiert jedes Jahr die nationale und internationale Wurfelite.

www.mdr.de

 

[ClarkeM]

1 Beach Volleyball Women's Mariafe del Solar and Taliqua Clancy

I'd be shocked. Set to be their last tournament together however I'm admittedly huge doubter of this team this year unfortunately. Their preparation this year has been abysmal, missing tournaments, disconnection between the pair etc. So impressed and stoked with a silver medal in Tokyo but this Olympics I don't think they'll get anywhere near medal contention. In fact, don't think they'll make it out of their group this year. Hope to be proven wrong but the sun has set on this duo unfortunately.

Hodges/Schubert are more of a chance at a Bronze I reckon. Have hit scintillating form lately and while they don't have Olympic experience like the Women do, they have an exceptional upside ahead of them. Expect them to be a dark horse. Nicolaidis and Carracher are making up numbers but it's awesome to see three teams in the sport and hope they find some success in their opportunity.

Speaking of this though, how bloody incredible is the stadium they're set to play in!

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

I'd be shocked. Set to be their last tournament together however I'm admittedly huge doubter of this team this year unfortunately. Their preparation this year has been abysmal, missing tournaments, disconnection between the pair etc. So impressed and stoked with a silver medal in Tokyo but this Olympics I don't think they'll get anywhere near medal contention. In fact, don't think they'll make it out of their group this year. Hope to be proven wrong but the sun has set on this duo unfortunately.

Hodges/Schubert are more of a chance at a Bronze I reckon. Have hit scintillating form lately and while they don't have Olympic experience like the Women do, they have an exceptional upside ahead of them. Expect them to be a dark horse. Nicolaidis and Carracher are making up numbers but it's awesome to see three teams in the sport and hope they find some success in their opportunity.

Speaking of this though, how bloody incredible is the stadium they're set to play in!

They made the S/Fs of 2023 world champs and that's why I put them in the Bronze/4th/5th heading as I tried to match Gracenote's estimation, which they heavily rely on world championship and world cup results. I haven't followed their 2024 results closely, so I take your word on it.

I didn't go to the beach volleyball in Sydney during the Olympics, went to an event a week or two before the games started, I spent most of my time at Sydney Olympic Park, which was just Homebush back then, but mates that went a to a few sessions, said the setting and event was great. I think Paris might outdo Bondi for the setting.

 

[PoopingHindi]

so happy to see Ollie Hoare get his first Diamond League win. the time converts to about a 3:32 low for the 1500 so nothing spectacular but he had to work hard and he raced well.
Stewy came in ahead of Cam Myers again despite doing his usual vanishing trick.
no idea what happened to Spencer but his form has not been great.
side note: there's a lot of hype around Myers but Niels Laros is even faster and only a year and a bit older.

Cat Bisset ran well but realistically is a long way off and an Olympic final is out of her reach barring something extraordinary.

 

[ClarkeM]

They made the S/Fs of 2023 world champs and that's why I put them in the Bronze/4th/5th heading as I tried to match Gracenote's estimation, which they heavily rely on world championship and world cup results. I haven't followed their 2024 results closely, so I take your word on it.

I didn't got to the beach volleyball in Sydney during the Olympics, went to an event a week or two before the games started, I spent most of my time at Sydney Olympic Park, which was just Homebush back then, but mates that went a to a few sessions, said the setting and event was great. I think Paris might outdo Bondi for the setting.

It's all sort of come from this summer which has been very interesting for them. Pulling out of events last minute, underperforming by their own standards they've set.

I'd be very surprised.

 

[AdelaideGT]

Who are Australia's best chances in Paris?

Who will win Australia’s gold medals in Paris

Based on their collective experience at 12 Olympics, Sportshounds Games experts Louise Evans and Mike Osborne predict another world top-five

sportshounds.com.au

 

[Drummond]

Watched the Jess Fox doco on Stan last night. Was pretty good, although pretty surface level. No Olympic footage hurt, I guess that was a copyright thing.

Let’s hope she can take home a gold. But it’s such a brutal sport, one mistake and that can be it. I guess that can be said about many of the events, but seems especially true here.

 

[danielnajdek]

Watched the Jess Fox doco on Stan last night. Was pretty good, although pretty surface level. No Olympic footage hurt, I guess that was a copyright thing.

Let’s hope she can take home a gold. But it’s such a brutal sport, one mistake and that can be it. I guess that can be said about many of the events, but seems especially true here.

Jess' gold last Olympics was the biggest highlight for me. All that pressure she was under after she didn't win gold in her previous event and she was flawless. I remember I was yelling at the tv for her not to get any penalties at the end.

 

[Drummond]

This Beyond the Dream: Race to Paris is really good. Fascinating insight.

 

[gbear]

This Beyond the Dream: Race to Paris is really good. Fascinating insight.

It was a great watch last night.

 

[eth-dog]

Will be interested to see how Stacey Hymer goes in taekwondo. She was okay in a losing bout last Olympics, see if she can win first up and get to the repechage for bronze. Leon Sejranovic is our most likely to medal but I'd have him outside the top 5. Still only 21 so has time on his side.

 

[Willo_]

This Beyond the Dream: Race to Paris is really good. Fascinating insight.

The rowing trials... Holy shit, absolutely brutal

 

[Jeremias]

This may not be 10000% accurate but is a great resource for tracking our Aussie track and field athletes...

 

[Alfonz]

Here's my tip for Aussie medals. I have split them into 2 groups Gold/Silver and Bronze/4th/5th. I have put those who are most likely to get that type of result in the relevant grouping.

There are some Aussie athletes who will probably win silver, but if the favourite stuffs up, the Aussie could pinch gold eg new HJ WR holder Yaroslava Mahuchikh should win gold and Aussie Nicola Olyslagers win silver, but if Mahuchikh has a bad day then Olyslagers could pinch it.

Same happens the other way with an Aussie favourite to win gold but ends up with silver.

Tokyo was rare that Australia won more than double the amount of gold to silver medals, usually its around the same or about 1/3rd more silvers than gold.

Since WWII Helsinki 6/2, Melbourne 13/8, Rome 6/2 and Tokyo 17/7 are the 4 examples where a lot more golds were won than silvers. Gracenote is saying 13 golds and 22 silvers in the last report I saw.

And every Olympics since 1976, Oz has won more bronzes than gold, except Athens in 2004 when it was 17G 16S 17B. Gracenote is going with 13 bronzes. Remember this is just my guess trying to work out how Gracenote got their 13/22/13 = 48 Oz total.

2 eazy I think this is what you asked for in the other thread. I have posted about many of these chances in this thread previously.

Gold / Silver chances

3 Athletics Women's High Jump Nicola Olyslagers, W Pole Vault Nina Kennedy, W 20km Walk Jemma Montag

3 Canoeing slalom Women's C-1 Jess Fox, W K-1 Jess Fox, W Kayak Cross - Jess Fox
1 Canoeing sprint Men's K-2 500m Tom Green and Jean van der Westhuyzen

2 Cycling track Men's Team Sprint, Men's Kerin Matthew Richardson
1 Cycling BMX freestyle Men's Logan Martin
1 Cycling BMX racing Women's Saba Sakakibara

1 Diving Men's 10m Platform Cassiel Rousseau
1 Hockey.... Men's Kookaburras
2 Rowing Women's Coxless Pairs Jessica Morrison & Annebelle McIntyre, Men's Eights
1 Rugby Sevens Women's team

2 Sailing Men's Laser/ILCA 7 Matthew Wearn, Women's 49er FX Olivia Price + Evie Haseldine
2 Shooting Men's Trap James Willet, Women's Trap Penny Smith
1 Skateboarding Men's Keegan Palmer
1 Surfing Women's Molly Picklum

16 Swimming
Men's
50m Free McEvoy, 400m Free Sam Short, 800m Free Winnington, 200m Breastroke Stublety-Cook
Women's
50m Free Jack, 100m Free O'Callaghan, 200m MOC, Titmus, 400m Titmus, 800m Titmus
100m Back Kaylee McKeown, 200m Back McKeown, 200m IM Mckeown
4x100m Free, 4x200m Free 4x100m Medley

Bronze / 4th / 5th

Athletics
10 Men's Discuss Matt Denny, M Long Jump Christopher Mitrevski, Pole Vault Kurtis Marschall, M 1500m Ollie Hoare,
M Decathlon Ash Moloney, High Jump Yuri Reath
Women's 1500m Jessica Hull, W High Jump Eleanor Pattinson, Javelin McKenzie Little
Mixed Marathon Race Walking Relay

2 Basketball Men's Boomers, Women's Opals
1 Boxing Harry Garside
1 Cycling Men's Team Pursuit
1 Diving Women's Synchronised 3m springboard
1 Equestrian Eventing team

1 Football Women's Matildas
1 Golf Women's Mingee Lee
1 Hockey Women's Hockeyroos
1 Rowing Women's Eights
1 Rugby Sevens Men's team

1 Sailing Mixed 470
1 Skateboarding Arisa Trew
1 Tennis Men's doubles Peers and Ebden
1 Beach Volleyball Women's Mariafe del Solar and Taliqua Clancy
1 Water Polo Women's team Stingers

9 Swimming
Men's 100m Free Kyle Chalmers, 400m Elijah Winnington, 800m Sam Short, 4x100m Free
W 100m Shayna Jack, 800m Lani Pallister, 1500m Pallister, 200m Fly Elizabeth Dekkers
4x100m Mixed Medley relay

Edit in Tokyo 6 x 4ths, 20 x 5ths and 8 x 6ths to go with 17G 7S 22B.

Edit Grae Morris is currently ranked fourth in the world in the iQFOiL men’s windsurfing, finished the 2024 French Olympic Week with a silver medal, earning himself a spot on the Australian Olympic Team for the Paris 2024 Olympic Games.

Jack Robinson should be on your list for surfing. Ranked #3 in the world. Didn't go so well at Teahupoʻo this year, but won the WSL event in 2023 and has won 2 out of the 8 events this year. Ethan Ewing also a sneaky chance as world #5.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

They don't say how they got there, but in the last month Gracenote have upgraded Oz from 13/22/13 = 48 medals to
15/23/16 = 54 medals. This is their final one before the games.

Nielsen's Gracenote Expects USA, China, Great Britain, France and Australia to Lead 2024 Paris Olympic Games Medal Table | Nielsen

Gracenote releases its first Virtual Medal Table (VMT) forecast for the 2024 Paris Olympic Games including gold, silver and bronze medal count predications.

www.nielsen.com

 

[AdelaideGT]

They don't say how they got there

They base it off performances in the previous year, so very recent events (slalom canoeing champs, Diamond League athletics, Tour de France etc) replacing oldest performances previously used) is the most likely reason.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

They base it off performances in the previous year, so very recent events (slalom canoeing champs, Diamond League athletics, Tour de France etc) replacing oldest performances previously used) is the most likely reason.

They mainly base it on previous year's world champions and this years world cup/series results. There hasn't been that many of them since June, when they last published their lists. Its why its a bit slack not to publish who they think will as a minimum win which events.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Predictable but well deserved for Jess and Eddie to be the flag bearers. Jess has a Saturday arvo event but said she wasn't going to knock it back.

 

[Drummond]

Drummond I have another male name that would be in the mix, after just seeing a story in the sports segment of 7 news on the Kookaburras and Hockeyroos.

Eddie Ockenden is going to his 5th Olympics. Won bronze in Bejing and London and silver in Tokyo and a couple of World Cups.

Bingo!!

We got Fox, and you got Eddie. Superb call. Well deserved.

 

[eth-dog]

Predictable but well deserved for Jess and Eddie to be the flag bearer. Jess has a Saturday arvo event but said she wasn't going to knock it back.

Obvious choices.

 

[BobbyMorri]

Predictable but well deserved for Jess and Eddie to be the flag bearer. Jess has a Saturday arvo event but said she wasn't going to knock it back.

They rarely get this wrong.

In fact, I dont think I can recall a moment they have.

Jess is a star of her sport. Deserved a moment like this at Tokyo, but Covid sucks.

Eddie is in his 5th Olympics. An amazing achievement of longevity and skill. I don't follow hockey much, but even I knew he was one of the best players around the 2010s.

Eddie is also Tasmanian and a bloody good one at that. He always comes back home and helps our teams whenever it is needed.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Least Jess got it haven’t really heard of the other one but 5 Games is an outstanding achievement

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

I know the Olympic TV broadcasters all around the world love the tear jerker story and go over the top with these stories, but after watching Kai Sakakibara tell his story and his sister's story 2024 BMX World #1 ranked Saya, its hard not get a bit emotional about them.

Win gold, a medal, make the final, or lets bloody hope it doesn't happen, another crash, its gonna be a big tear jerker story again.

If Saya doesn't crash, I think she wins the gold