Bluemour Melting Pot XIX - Give Me Ed Baby - Return of the Prodigal Son

[Juice030103]

Eddie Betts has played 316 games across 15 seasons. Averaging around 21 games a season. When you play at a club that you don’t enjoy playing at like Betts has this year (and 2013) it influences your performance on the field not just off it. Yes he will be 33 for the majority of next year but he plays forward pocket so it’s hardly like he’s gonna be running a lot. The oxygen brothers can make up for him. Pretty sure people would say the Hodge experiment worked at Brisbane. Betts has played obviously for the blue baggers before so he will be bringing that passion to the club. Great role model to have at the club and I still think he will be of value in terms of his on field performance. Age is just a number in the end and there are people older than Eddie having a major influence on teams. Why can’t he? People look too much into the “12 goals against GCS” thing too statistically. If you have a chance to get a guy who would be our second most experienced player on the list to come and play you do it. Especially with a player such as Eddie.

 

[smashbox gill]

We will not be giving up pick 39 for Eddie.

Adelaide want his salary off their books, he wants to leave. It will be a late late pick around 70’s

 

[Monkey King]

So 1 player was successful in that range so every we are guaranteed of success?

It does mean we’re not guaranteed to fail.

Other players taken around that pick over the last 10 years - Luke Parker, Ben Brown, Jake Kolodjashnij, Mitch McGovern and Caleb Daniel. It’s a lower probability pick, but recent history suggests it’s not an entirely throw away pick either.

 

[Macca43]

Do you even read what you write before hitting post?

I'm taking the "17% chance of a birdie" because my Ambrose partner just flushed one down the middle. If Betts comes to Carlton it's as a gift, for something we wouldn't have used. That is his value. Not Pick 39 because we happen to have it and Pick 39's have a whatever percentage of working out.

Why are you trying to argue that Betts' value is equal to our pick when that's clearly not what we need to give up? Again - pointless argument. Why isn't his value pick 35? Or Pick 30? Or Pick 6?

Betts' market value is what we need to pay to get him. Simple.

You don't pay $20,000 for a car with $10,000 on the sticker, just because you have $20,000 in your account and you like the car.

Because value isn't cost. If he is value at 39 then any argument against picking him up at that or any later pick is moot.

Do you even read what you write before hitting post? This discussion would work better if you read what I wrote before responding.

 

[WalshYouLegend]

My younger daughter is just starting to read. Might start her on...

This is Doch.

Doch can run.

See Doch run.

More like...

This is Doch.

Doch can pre-season.

See Doch in the coaching box.

 

[Macca43]

It does mean we’re not guaranteed to fail.

Other players taken around that pick over the last 10 years - Luke Parker, Ben Brown, Jake Kolodjashnij, Mitch McGovern and Caleb Daniel. It’s a lower probability pick, but recent history suggests it’s not an entirely throw away pick either.

We are "not guaranteed to fail" by taking Betts at 39 as well. The question is which gives us the better chance of not failing. The statistics point to that being Betts by a wide margin.

 

[footyfan1978]

I need ya Barass... plz mate.. please...

 

[Monkey King]

We are "not guaranteed to fail" by taking Betts at 39 as well. The question is which gives us the better chance of not failing. The statistics point to that being Betts by a wide margin.

I’ve made no such comment on Betts. I’m talking about players that have historically been available at pick 39.

 

[skadoosh]

This thread has been rubbish the last week or so

 

[agro]

We are "not guaranteed to fail" by taking Betts at 39 as well. The question is which gives us the better chance of not failing. The statistics point to that being Betts by a wide margin.

There is no need to use pick 39 for Eddie Betts and we won’t use pick 39, no matter what your statistical analysis justifies- it just will not happen - move on.




If it does I will wear a Mohawk and become a ballerina

 

[Macca43]

I’ve made no such comment on Betts. I’m talking about players that have historically been available at pick 39.

**** me.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Because value isn't cost. If he is value at 39 then any argument against picking him up at that or any later pick is moot.

Do you even read what you write before hitting post? This discussion would work better if you read what I wrote before responding.

"If he is value at 39 then any argument against picking him up at that or any later pick is moot."

This is patently incorrect.

You've now blurred cost and value by suggesting that because you think Betts represents value at Pick 39, that it is acceptable to pay pick 39 for him. It's not, because as you've also admitted, that is not what his cost would be.

What's your end point here? Betts is more valuable than Pick 39, but we can pay less for him...OK, so why even discuss his value in relation to Pick 39? It serves no purpose, because subjective "value" based on personal opinion has no bearing on cost in real life context. Why does it matter to you that Betts is worth Pick X if we don't have to pay Pick X?

 

[Macca43]

There is no need to use pick 39 for Eddie Betts and we won’t use pick 39, no matter what your statistical analysis justifies- it just will not happen - move on.

Again, price is not value.

 

[Blue__Balls]

**** me.

Hard pass, better value elsewhere.

 

[BluesTragic]

Crueled by injury but a great (and rare) late pick by our Recruiting Team.

Yes, purely on potential and whether or not he can get back on the park..if at all. I hope he can get his body right and play don’t consistent footy


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[ferrisb]

I need ya Barass... plz mate.. please...

Right now I'd take a port Melbourne physio or #19 tram rumour....

 

[footyfan1978]

I do not even care if the rumour came via tram #55.. just anything at this point... please, anyone ?

 

[Blue__Balls]

Right now I'd take a port Melbourne physio or #19 tram rumour....

Macca43 is actually Eddie Betts, trying to convince the Carlton Faithful his magical draft pick value based on the history of drafting is Pick 39.

#Bluemour

 

[Aphrodite]

Right now I'd take a port Melbourne physio or #19 tram rumour....

Just got back from Port Melbourne but forgot to drop past the physio.

 

[Macca43]

"If he is value at 39 then any argument against picking him up at that or any later pick is moot."

This is patently incorrect.

You've now blurred cost and value by suggesting that because you think Betts represents value at Pick 39, that it is acceptable to pay pick 39 for him. It's not, because as you've also admitted, that is not what his cost would be.

What's your end point here? Betts is more valuable than Pick 39, but we can pay less for him...OK, so why even discuss his value in relation to Pick 39? It serves no purpose, because subjective "value" based on personal opinion has no bearing on cost in real life context. Why does it matter to you that Betts is worth Pick X if we don't have to pay Pick X?

Please go and do 5 minutes of googling on the economic concepts of value and price.

Again;
"Betts is more valuable than Pick 39, but we can pay less for him...OK, so why even discuss his value in relation to Pick 39?" We have 39, it is our highest pick outside of 8 which will go in the trade for Papley so. again "If he is value at 39 then any argument against picking him up at that or any later pick is moot."

 

[Blue__Balls]

Again, price is not value.

Why is Eddie's value Pick 39, not Pick 34?

 

[Macca43]

Macca43 is actually Eddie Betts, trying to convince the Carlton Faithful his magical draft pick value based on the history of drafting is Pick 39.

#Bluemour

Again, please do some research on the the concept of value V price.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Please go and do 5 minutes of googling on the economic concepts of value and price.

Again;
"Betts is more valuable than Pick 39, but we can pay less for him...OK, so why even discuss his value in relation to Pick 39?" We have 39, it is our highest pick outside of 8 which will go in the trade for Papley so. again "If he is value at 39 then any argument against picking him up at that or any later pick is moot."

No it's not moot, because you're now applying your own opinion on value to what cost is acceptable to pay.

The acceptable cost to pay is the lowest we can get away with.

Giving up Pick 39 for a player who can be had for Pick 80 is irresponsible list management.

 

[footyfan1978]

Is it too late to pass on the rumour I heard in late 2013 that we were after Boyd from my hairdresser ?

 

[BringBackSimmo]

What we need is more graphs in this thread... pie chart, anyway?