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Brownlow Medal 2009 (Part 1)
- Thread starter Athomas
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Norm Smith Medallist
Re: Brownlow Medal
stanton and watson are named... open the market bloody tab!!!
stanton and watson are named... open the market bloody tab!!!
Re: Brownlow Medal
ive got
$5 on goodes at 18
$5 on hayes at 18
ive got
$5 on goodes at 18
$5 on hayes at 18
George Washington
Premiership Player
Re: Brownlow Medal
Think they might be writing the cheques for all the people who got on Watson at $4.50.
stanton and watson are named... open the market bloody tab!!!
Think they might be writing the cheques for all the people who got on Watson at $4.50.
- Thread starter
- #930
Re: Brownlow Medal
I should have put more on him. Lots of multis though.
Think they might be writing the cheques for all the people who got on Watson at $4.50.
I should have put more on him. Lots of multis though.
Brownlow King
Team Captain
Re: Brownlow Medal
Well done on getting the value at $4.50 but value doesn't mean he wins.
I have Stanton 1 in front and rate it a line ball call with the next 2 weeks critical. Stanton has 3 big games in wins and Watson will be looking to pick up votes in losing matches. e.g. Saints game earlier in the year.
I suppose that only time will tell on this one.
Gee nearly everyone on this site reckons that Watson is a moral.Think they might be writing the cheques for all the people who got on Watson at $4.50.
Well done on getting the value at $4.50 but value doesn't mean he wins.
I have Stanton 1 in front and rate it a line ball call with the next 2 weeks critical. Stanton has 3 big games in wins and Watson will be looking to pick up votes in losing matches. e.g. Saints game earlier in the year.
I suppose that only time will tell on this one.
banta
Team Captain
Re: Brownlow Medal
i also dont think that watson is a moral...yet. i do have him in front for essendon, but only by 1-2 votes from winderlich and stanton who are both playing this week. 6 potential votes for any player with 2 rounds to go. you would think essendon will win at least one of those matches... hopefully (touch wood). so potential for them to put pressure on watson followers.
i also dont think that watson is a moral...yet. i do have him in front for essendon, but only by 1-2 votes from winderlich and stanton who are both playing this week. 6 potential votes for any player with 2 rounds to go. you would think essendon will win at least one of those matches... hopefully (touch wood). so potential for them to put pressure on watson followers.
- Jul 12, 2003
- 6,984
- 12,719
- AFL Club
- Carlton
Re: Brownlow Medal
I have Winders and Watson ahead of Stanton, but Watson leading.
Watson has had plenty in the media praising his season/improved form so the umps will take notice.
Also plays in the best vote getting role on the ground
I have Winders and Watson ahead of Stanton, but Watson leading.
Watson has had plenty in the media praising his season/improved form so the umps will take notice.
Also plays in the best vote getting role on the ground
Brownlow King
Team Captain
Re: Brownlow Medal
Yep he's had media this week and the umps will take notice for the last 2 games only
Re: Brownlow Medal
Stanton is not a big vote getter, nor is Watson on previous history.
I thought Watson was a moral last year too and McVeigh won easily. I can see Winderlich getting up, although I've taken Watson in many of my multis because I figure its only a matter of time before he gets noticed (all other players that play his role get plenty of votes). $4.50 was too good to pass up... into $2.40 on Centrebet now.
Stanton is not a big vote getter, nor is Watson on previous history.
I thought Watson was a moral last year too and McVeigh won easily. I can see Winderlich getting up, although I've taken Watson in many of my multis because I figure its only a matter of time before he gets noticed (all other players that play his role get plenty of votes). $4.50 was too good to pass up... into $2.40 on Centrebet now.
Brownlow King
Team Captain
Re: Brownlow Medal
I think that the main point here is that Ess is not the club to focus on really and there are heaps of safer options :
Black-Boyd-Harvey-Goodes-Judd-Vince ( or save thompson ) provide the value multi
Actually into $2.10 at centrebet as I offlaid lots of multis involving Stanton into him earlier in the week.
I think that the main point here is that Ess is not the club to focus on really and there are heaps of safer options :
Black-Boyd-Harvey-Goodes-Judd-Vince ( or save thompson ) provide the value multi
Re: Brownlow Medal
I agree strongly on the harvey goodes judd and vince legs, although judd is to short to risk with pretty much no reward, and vince isnt a shoe in (definately the best value in the group though)
black and boyd i'm not convinced on, especially boyd. i understand lots of people including black in their multi's, usually thats the kind of thing i'd be all over, but brown is too much of an unknown this year for mine. boyd is way to short in my opinion, he deserves to be favourate, but the doggies group is a very open field. higgins at $34 is amazing value, especially since he's back this week. I think people are as a rule too easily influenced by recent weeks and too quick to forget the first half of the season...
I agree strongly on the harvey goodes judd and vince legs, although judd is to short to risk with pretty much no reward, and vince isnt a shoe in (definately the best value in the group though)
black and boyd i'm not convinced on, especially boyd. i understand lots of people including black in their multi's, usually thats the kind of thing i'd be all over, but brown is too much of an unknown this year for mine. boyd is way to short in my opinion, he deserves to be favourate, but the doggies group is a very open field. higgins at $34 is amazing value, especially since he's back this week. I think people are as a rule too easily influenced by recent weeks and too quick to forget the first half of the season...
Re: Brownlow Medal
I agree. I've got a lot of minor ($5-$10) multis that have 8ish legs purely for the sake that I might get lucky.
I do intend to do 2 big ones that the above mentioned one Vince/Thompson.
Starting to warm to Embley at WCE, although its mostly a raffle there, although I think Selwood/LeCras are the only two. Selwood has had a few games in wins where he should get 3 votes (i.e similar stat games previously in wins got him 3 votes) and is probably enough to get over the line.
I see the clubs playing out in the following..
Geelong - Ablett / Selwood (Selwood should improve on 19 last year)
Bulldogs - Boyd
Carlton - Judd
Melbourne - Bruce / Mclean
Crows - Thompson / Vince
Hawks - Mitchell
Eagles - Selwood / LeCras / Embley
Brisbane - Black
Port - Tredrea / Pearce
Tigers - Deledio / Cousins
North - Harvey
Saints - Montagna = Hayes
Pies - Swan
Sydney - Goodes
Essendon - Watson / Winderlich
Freo - Pavlich / Sandilands = Hasleby
If I have put a / between players, it means that I think the one mentioned first is leading but its close and the = obviously means I can't split the two.
Watson into $2 now, I would not touch that with a 10 foot pole.
I agree. I've got a lot of minor ($5-$10) multis that have 8ish legs purely for the sake that I might get lucky.
I do intend to do 2 big ones that the above mentioned one Vince/Thompson.
Starting to warm to Embley at WCE, although its mostly a raffle there, although I think Selwood/LeCras are the only two. Selwood has had a few games in wins where he should get 3 votes (i.e similar stat games previously in wins got him 3 votes) and is probably enough to get over the line.
I see the clubs playing out in the following..
Geelong - Ablett / Selwood (Selwood should improve on 19 last year)
Bulldogs - Boyd
Carlton - Judd
Melbourne - Bruce / Mclean
Crows - Thompson / Vince
Hawks - Mitchell
Eagles - Selwood / LeCras / Embley
Brisbane - Black
Port - Tredrea / Pearce
Tigers - Deledio / Cousins
North - Harvey
Saints - Montagna = Hayes
Pies - Swan
Sydney - Goodes
Essendon - Watson / Winderlich
Freo - Pavlich / Sandilands = Hasleby
If I have put a / between players, it means that I think the one mentioned first is leading but its close and the = obviously means I can't split the two.
Watson into $2 now, I would not touch that with a 10 foot pole.
Re: Brownlow Medal
Why do people keep saying that Selwood "should improve on his 19 last year," why? Better year does not equal more votes. I wouldn't be surprised, but I don't think that should be your thinking.
As usual, I'm not convinced about any team leaders, I think there'll be a lot of upsets like O'Keefe over Goodes, Murphy over Judd, maybe a Priddis at WCE and Franklin at Hawthorn. It's all about whether or not you're willing to put your balls/cash on the TAB chopping block.
Why do people keep saying that Selwood "should improve on his 19 last year," why? Better year does not equal more votes. I wouldn't be surprised, but I don't think that should be your thinking.
As usual, I'm not convinced about any team leaders, I think there'll be a lot of upsets like O'Keefe over Goodes, Murphy over Judd, maybe a Priddis at WCE and Franklin at Hawthorn. It's all about whether or not you're willing to put your balls/cash on the TAB chopping block.
Re: Brownlow Medal
O'Keefe played well when we were losing. Goodes will be near the top of the leaderboard at the half way stage this season.
Brownlow King
Team Captain
Re: Brownlow Medal
I agree - Selwood will poll 20+ this year for sure and can easily win the medal.
Selwood vs Ablett 50-50 right now I reckon. Ablett's 3 votes last week put him in the race.
I agree - Selwood will poll 20+ this year for sure and can easily win the medal.
asanque
Premium Platinum
Re: Brownlow Medal
Whilst Selwood and Black are great players.
Neither has a shot at the brownlow this year (unless they both have ripper final 2 games - and even then I doubt it).
At this stage I doubt either will get 20+.
Bookmark this post.
Whilst Selwood and Black are great players.
Neither has a shot at the brownlow this year (unless they both have ripper final 2 games - and even then I doubt it).
At this stage I doubt either will get 20+.
Bookmark this post.
Re: Brownlow Medal
Geelong have played in closer games and have lost more. Ablett will be right there in their minds every game and has probably reached his 22 of last year if not past it. Other players have stepped up aswell, Johnson early and Chapman in the middle of the year. I have no doubt Selwood has had a great year, arguably better than last year and will be getting a few votes this year, but the logic that better year = more votes just doesn't work because of the buttload of other factors involved.
Geelong have played in closer games and have lost more. Ablett will be right there in their minds every game and has probably reached his 22 of last year if not past it. Other players have stepped up aswell, Johnson early and Chapman in the middle of the year. I have no doubt Selwood has had a great year, arguably better than last year and will be getting a few votes this year, but the logic that better year = more votes just doesn't work because of the buttload of other factors involved.
Re: Brownlow Medal
Deadset agree. I only have Selwood on 10 votes thus far and Black on 16. I have Chapman polling well and will be a big threat if Ablett doesen't poll as expected. Saying that I reckon Ablett has the medal in the bag.
Ablett, Goodes, Harvey, Mitchell and Watson are the only lock's for me so far. Still think Carlton could go to anyone, I've got a fiver on Fev to win which I placed at season start and last week put another 5 for him to get Carlton's most votes. If he has a big week this weekend, this could get interesting.
Deadset agree. I only have Selwood on 10 votes thus far and Black on 16. I have Chapman polling well and will be a big threat if Ablett doesen't poll as expected. Saying that I reckon Ablett has the medal in the bag.
Ablett, Goodes, Harvey, Mitchell and Watson are the only lock's for me so far. Still think Carlton could go to anyone, I've got a fiver on Fev to win which I placed at season start and last week put another 5 for him to get Carlton's most votes. If he has a big week this weekend, this could get interesting.
Brownlow King
Team Captain
Re: Brownlow Medal
I reckon that they can run the quinella !
Forget about theories like this year has been better than last and therefore a player will poll more this year than last. I don't profess to any of those theories.
Selwood polled 19 last year in his first full year. The umps obv notice him and appreciate the way he plays and goes about his footy ( fair ).
Black goes without saying and clearly gets votes when Bris win ( has polled in something like 13 games out of the 16 games they have won the past 2 years ).
Yarbs, I will bookmark your post and you had better bookmark this.
Selwood and Black will both be on or near 20 or 20+ right now and with any more in the next 2 weeks can easily win the medal, especially if the Fav's are a little quiet.
I reckon that they can run the quinella !
Forget about theories like this year has been better than last and therefore a player will poll more this year than last. I don't profess to any of those theories.
Selwood polled 19 last year in his first full year. The umps obv notice him and appreciate the way he plays and goes about his footy ( fair ).
Black goes without saying and clearly gets votes when Bris win ( has polled in something like 13 games out of the 16 games they have won the past 2 years ).
Yarbs, I will bookmark your post and you had better bookmark this.
Re: Brownlow Medal
When are the TAB going to open the market for Essendon's Most Votes? Argh! The teams have been announced, what are they waiting for? Unless of course they believe either Stanton or Watson will be late withdrawals, but why would they suspend the market for a full week prior to this round? Besides, bets can't be placed during the round so they'll be losing bets.
I want to do another multi including Jobe and Vince!
When are the TAB going to open the market for Essendon's Most Votes? Argh! The teams have been announced, what are they waiting for? Unless of course they believe either Stanton or Watson will be late withdrawals, but why would they suspend the market for a full week prior to this round? Besides, bets can't be placed during the round so they'll be losing bets.
I want to do another multi including Jobe and Vince!
Re: Brownlow Medal
What makes you so sure BK? You have Judd, Black, Ablett, Selwood and Goodes on 24 and above. So conceivably you could have all finishing on 30 or above votes. In the last 10 years, 5 players have got 25 votes or more, only Judd has got 30 since Harvey's 32 in 1998. I think this year's count will be a bit more like last years or even 2005, when Cousins won with 20 votes.
What makes you so sure BK? You have Judd, Black, Ablett, Selwood and Goodes on 24 and above. So conceivably you could have all finishing on 30 or above votes. In the last 10 years, 5 players have got 25 votes or more, only Judd has got 30 since Harvey's 32 in 1998. I think this year's count will be a bit more like last years or even 2005, when Cousins won with 20 votes.
Re: Brownlow Medal
regarding selwood....as of 13th of august i got these stats
selwood 51 frees for 23 against (six was in first game...so really about 20 )
ablett 15 frees for 18 against
swan 9 frees for 6 against
yes i think umps know who he is and how hard he goes at it...
regarding selwood....as of 13th of august i got these stats
selwood 51 frees for 23 against (six was in first game...so really about 20 )
ablett 15 frees for 18 against
swan 9 frees for 6 against
yes i think umps know who he is and how hard he goes at it...
Re: Brownlow Medal
Exactly.
Heres another piece of interesting trivia, there has only been 2 game in the past three counts (2006-2007-2009) where Swan has not got a minimum of 1 vote when having 30+ possessions (both in 2006).
In this time, he has had a total of 11 30+ possession games, grabbing a total of 21 votes (polling out of 9 games). In 2009, Swan has amassed 30+ touches 16 times with 2 rounds remaining. Further if you only look at the 2007-2008 counts, where Swan really became a good player he has 7 games at 30+ for 19 brownlow votes.
Exactly.
Heres another piece of interesting trivia, there has only been 2 game in the past three counts (2006-2007-2009) where Swan has not got a minimum of 1 vote when having 30+ possessions (both in 2006).
In this time, he has had a total of 11 30+ possession games, grabbing a total of 21 votes (polling out of 9 games). In 2009, Swan has amassed 30+ touches 16 times with 2 rounds remaining. Further if you only look at the 2007-2008 counts, where Swan really became a good player he has 7 games at 30+ for 19 brownlow votes.
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