Brownlow Medal 2009 (Part 1)

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Re: Brownlow Medal

25 - Ablett

24 - Judd

20 - Brown

19 - Goodes

18 - Montagna

17 - S.Johnson, Chapman

16 - NDS, Didak, Hayes, Riewoldt, Cooney, Swan

14 - Goddard, Gibbs, Watson, Mitchell, Fevola, Sandilands
 

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Re: Brownlow Medal

Going to be a great night. Very keen on Murphy to take it out. Not far away at least.

23 - Judd
22 - Ablett
19 - Swan, Montagna
18 - Didak
17 - J.Brown, Murphy
16 - Chapman
15 - Black, Vince
14 - Hayes, Dal Santo, Gibbs, Goodes
13 - J.Selwood, Watson, Pendlebury
12 - S.Johnson, Riewoldt, Boyd, Goddard
11 - Mitchell, Cooney, Akermanis
10 - Bartel, Sandilands, Franklin, Le Cras, O'Keefe
 
Re: Brownlow Medal

AhSteveSteve27 said:
Going to be a great night. Very keen on Murphy to take it out. Not far away at least.

23 - Judd
22 - Ablett
19 - Swan, Montagna
18 - Didak
17 - J.Brown, Murphy
16 - Chapman
15 - Black, Vince
14 - Hayes, Dal Santo, Gibbs, Goodes
13 - J.Selwood, Watson, Pendlebury
12 - S.Johnson, Riewoldt, Boyd, Goddard
11 - Mitchell, Cooney, Akermanis
10 - Bartel, Sandilands, Franklin, Le Cras, O'Keefe
Click to expand...

As outrageous as it is, you and I both know Goodes will be 20 plus at this stage of the count. I'd almost be surprised if he doesn't win.
 
Re: Brownlow Medal

i'll just repeat what i've said for the past few weeks.

Swan - great week. He won't poll but none of his dangers (if there are any) will either, with the exception of Ablett and Goodes but think Ablett will only get 2 at best and Goodes is a bit too far back to catch him imo. Swans odds have drifetd further...beautiful!!!

Murphy - more votes, massive chance to beat Judd (was $10 2 weeks ago) and another good value player to quinella with Swan.
 
Re: Brownlow Medal

fridge21 said:
i'll just repeat what i've said for the past few weeks.

Swan - great week. He won't poll but none of his dangers (if there are any) will either, with the exception of Ablett and Goodes but think Ablett will only get 2 at best and Goodes is a bit too far back to catch him imo. Swans odds have drifetd further...beautiful!!!

Murphy - more votes, massive chance to beat Judd (was $10 2 weeks ago) and another good value player to quinella with Swan.
Click to expand...

Murphy won't beat Judd. Gibbs will be clsoe with Murphy imo.

Still don't think Swan will win it.
 
Re: Brownlow Medal

I've got Gibbs and Fevola both ahead of Marc, but I do reckon he will potentially poll double what I have him on because I have considered him on many occasions but just thought he was 4th/5th best.
 
Re: Brownlow Medal

fridge21 said:
i'll just repeat what i've said for the past few weeks.

Swan - great week. He won't poll but none of his dangers (if there are any) will either, with the exception of Ablett and Goodes but think Ablett will only get 2 at best and Goodes is a bit too far back to catch him imo. Swans odds have drifetd further...beautiful!!!

Murphy - more votes, massive chance to beat Judd (was $10 2 weeks ago) and another good value player to quinella with Swan.
Click to expand...
Swan can't win IMO.

Down to 5 chances which I'm sure I was encouraging people to use in quinellas a 3-4 weeks ago. I agree that most favs have been quiet the past couple of weeks.

Judd 28
Selwood 26
Ablett 26
Goodes 26
Black 26

Next best

Hayes 24
Swan 23
Boyd 21

Still great quinella value with the top 5 in different options.

Selwood or Ablett will play a big 1 this weekend against Freo and either can win the medal. Goodes the X factor and may play another big 1 to farewell his mates at the SCG.
Swan ( very tough game this week ), Goddard, Dalsanto etc.. can't win IMO.
 
Re: Brownlow Medal

26 - Ablett
24 - Hayes
22 - Montagna
21 - Swan
18 - Dal Santo
17 - Didak, Goddard, Selwood, Boyd
16 - Pendlebury
15 - Gibbs, Power
14 - Vince, Judd, Watson, Chapman

So yeah, looks like Ablett will probably win by my approximation. I don't imagine mine'll end up too accurate but just from that 3 odds I'd imagine would be good are Hayes to win, Gibbs to top Carlton and Power to top Brisbane
 
Re: Brownlow Medal

Nothing worse than typing a long post (of rubbish) then it not working!! so this is my very condensed version.

this is all opinion vs opinion. until the night is finished, everyones opinion should be respected. if we all thought exactly the same, we would be taking odds of $1.01 most of the time. Some people like Swan, some dont, some people think Goodes is a big chance, some don't. Some people think Black can win it, some dont. Some people think a saint can't win it, some do. its all opinions.

Everyone im assuming has a different way of assessing the games and awarding votes. Who's is right????

I assign votes each game according to what is the least possible votes they could get and what is the most. Too hard imo to give out a straight 1-2-3. yes my system isn't perfect but show me one that is? I specifically mark Goodes/Black/Selwood/Ablett/Mitchell/Brown/Judd easier because they have such a good record. Other players have to play a bit better to get a higher score in each game.

then it's opinion. does Murphy's 25 posessions and 2 goals, and work rate and fairness and not answering back and courage get him lots of sneaky 1's and 2's that other people wouldn't? does Riewoldt get lots of 1's and 2's for an outstanding stand out season? does Swan get lots of easy 2's and 3's for all his 30+ posession games? its all opinion/history/odds and then you make a selection.

for what its worth here are my top players, with what i could see as their absolute max votes and min votes.

Swan - 10.5-32.5
Goodes - 9-20
Montagna - 7-23
Black - 4.5-24
Judd - 8-27.5
Riewoldt - 2-24
Selwood - 8.5-25
Ablett - 8.5-28.5
Murphy - 7-26.5
Goddard - 7-27.5
Dal santo - 4-22
Brown - 7.5-21.5

as i have marked goodes/ablett/selwood/judd very leniently and swan hard that is the reason i really like him (i dont i hate him cos he plays for collingwood but we are here to make money).

anyway, i think half of the contributors on here have 5x more idea than the muppets who take all day to set the odds at TAB sportsbet so lets hope that some of us can make a killing due to their ineptitude!
 

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Re: Brownlow Medal

fridge21 said:
Nothing worse than typing a long post (of rubbish) then it not working!! so this is my very condensed version.

this is all opinion vs opinion. until the night is finished, everyones opinion should be respected. if we all thought exactly the same, we would be taking odds of $1.01 most of the time. Some people like Swan, some dont, some people think Goodes is a big chance, some don't. Some people think Black can win it, some dont. Some people think a saint can't win it, some do. its all opinions.

Everyone im assuming has a different way of assessing the games and awarding votes. Who's is right????

I assign votes each game according to what is the least possible votes they could get and what is the most. Too hard imo to give out a straight 1-2-3. yes my system isn't perfect but show me one that is? I specifically mark Goodes/Black/Selwood/Ablett/Mitchell/Brown/Judd easier because they have such a good record. Other players have to play a bit better to get a higher score in each game.

then it's opinion. does Murphy's 25 posessions and 2 goals, and work rate and fairness and not answering back and courage get him lots of sneaky 1's and 2's that other people wouldn't? does Riewoldt get lots of 1's and 2's for an outstanding stand out season? does Swan get lots of easy 2's and 3's for all his 30+ posession games? its all opinion/history/odds and then you make a selection.

for what its worth here are my top players, with what i could see as their absolute max votes and min votes.

Swan - 10.5-32.5
Goodes - 9-20
Montagna - 7-23
Black - 4.5-24
Judd - 8-27.5
Riewoldt - 2-24
Selwood - 8.5-25
Ablett - 8.5-28.5
Murphy - 7-26.5
Goddard - 7-27.5
Dal santo - 4-22
Brown - 7.5-21.5

as i have marked goodes/ablett/selwood/judd very leniently and swan hard that is the reason i really like him (i dont i hate him cos he plays for collingwood but we are here to make money).

anyway, i think half of the contributors on here have 5x more idea than the muppets who take all day to set the odds at TAB sportsbet so lets hope that some of us can make a killing due to their ineptitude!
Click to expand...


gee it wasn't that condensed was it!
 
Re: Brownlow Medal

fridge21 said:
Nothing worse than typing a long post (of rubbish) then it not working!! so this is my very condensed version.

this is all opinion vs opinion. until the night is finished, everyones opinion should be respected. if we all thought exactly the same, we would be taking odds of $1.01 most of the time. Some people like Swan, some dont, some people think Goodes is a big chance, some don't. Some people think Black can win it, some dont. Some people think a saint can't win it, some do. its all opinions.

Everyone im assuming has a different way of assessing the games and awarding votes. Who's is right????

I assign votes each game according to what is the least possible votes they could get and what is the most. Too hard imo to give out a straight 1-2-3. yes my system isn't perfect but show me one that is? I specifically mark Goodes/Black/Selwood/Ablett/Mitchell/Brown/Judd easier because they have such a good record. Other players have to play a bit better to get a higher score in each game.

then it's opinion. does Murphy's 25 posessions and 2 goals, and work rate and fairness and not answering back and courage get him lots of sneaky 1's and 2's that other people wouldn't? does Riewoldt get lots of 1's and 2's for an outstanding stand out season? does Swan get lots of easy 2's and 3's for all his 30+ posession games? its all opinion/history/odds and then you make a selection.

for what its worth here are my top players, with what i could see as their absolute max votes and min votes.

Swan - 10.5-32.5
Goodes - 9-20
Montagna - 7-23
Black - 4.5-24
Judd - 8-27.5
Riewoldt - 2-24
Selwood - 8.5-25
Ablett - 8.5-28.5
Murphy - 7-26.5
Goddard - 7-27.5
Dal santo - 4-22
Brown - 7.5-21.5

as i have marked goodes/ablett/selwood/judd very leniently and swan hard that is the reason i really like him (i dont i hate him cos he plays for collingwood but we are here to make money).

anyway, i think half of the contributors on here have 5x more idea than the muppets who take all day to set the odds at TAB sportsbet so lets hope that some of us can make a killing due to their ineptitude!
Click to expand...
I like your theory, though not sure about Goodes' max being 20 at this stage. I'd take even money that he's polled greater than 20 votes to this point of the season. You mustn't have been too easy on him when marking him.
 
Re: Brownlow Medal

The main problem with all this analysis is that we are ultimately relying on the umpires to make the right call on the best players.

Given umpiring decisions this year, and past history, relying on the umpires is fraught with danger.

I can already foresee a lot of whinging (probably justified) about poor umpire choices on brownlow night already.
 
Re: Brownlow Medal

asanque said:
The main problem with all this analysis is that we are ultimately relying on the umpires to make the right call on the best players.

Given umpiring decisions this year, and past history, relying on the umpires is fraught with danger.

I can already foresee a lot of whinging (probably justified) about poor umpire choices on brownlow night already.
Click to expand...
That's exactly why we need to put a major emphasis on previous polling history. Some players are obv easier to remember than others for the umps. Umpiring is a high pressure job and it must be very difficult to remember who plays well. I often watch games and find it hard to give the best 3 until I see the stats.
For that reason the ever reliable pollers in Black, Judd, Goodes, Selwood ( super to poll 19 in 1st full year ) and to a lesser extent Ablett, Hayes can all be relied on.
Naturally they need to have played well in winning games etc but all these guys have.

I reckon that I look at past polling history atleast once a week and that is the key reason I make good $$ out of the brownlow.

Swan can win the medal but he is far more risky than my group of A grade pollers ( I know he polled 21 2 years ago ).
 
Re: Brownlow Medal

Brownlow King said:
Swan can't win IMO.

Down to 5 chances which I'm sure I was encouraging people to use in quinellas a 3-4 weeks ago. I agree that most favs have been quiet the past couple of weeks.

Judd 28
Selwood 26
Ablett 26
Goodes 26
Black 26

Next best

Hayes 24
Swan 23
Boyd 21

Still great quinella value with the top 5 in different options.

Selwood or Ablett will play a big 1 this weekend against Freo and either can win the medal. Goodes the X factor and may play another big 1 to farewell his mates at the SCG.
Swan ( very tough game this week ), Goddard, Dalsanto etc.. can't win IMO.
Click to expand...

Im glad to see someone agree with me as I am almost certain Judd will win or be VERY close.

I think I may just do 4 or 5 quinellas involving Judd, better than tipping him outright, isnt really worth it for 5:1
 
Re: Brownlow Medal

Really disappointed in TAB not offering Boyd in Quinella options.

If you ring up, will they quote him. Wouldn't mind putting a few like Ablett/Boyd, Selwood/Boyd for some good value.
 
Re: Brownlow Medal

shattered i included cooney in these small multis back in june.

Picture44.jpg
 
Re: Brownlow Medal

TAB are pathetic. Next year will have to do all my bets online.

Who is the best, Centrebet, Betfair?
 
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