Brownlow Medal 2009 (Part 1)

[asanque]

Re: Brownlow Medal

I've got the following for Mitchell :

R1 vs Geel 1.5 ( he was very good and was a major part of the Haw comeback )
R3 vs North 2.25 ( 37 touches and 1 goal )
R5 vs WC 2.5 ( awesome with 40 )
R6 vs Carl 1.25 ( hard game to give votes with Roughy, Fev, Judd, Sewell and him all vying for votes )
R8 vs Freo 2 (I watched the game and he looked very good, Sewell and Pav both very good as well but he did have 34 touches )
Total 9.5 ( I had actually downgraded him in the Carl game but didn't total it )

I have mild concerns re how he polls so would not be keen to be on him against Judd or Ablett.

Pretty good analysis
I'm skeptical of round 1 and 6 but otherwise we are on the same page.

I can see why judd would be higher then Ablett based on half votes. I've felt Ablett has had more standout games though.

Clearly, this year the brownlow is down to 3 players thus far. Ablett,Judd and Dal Santo.

My smokies are: Goddard, Montagna, Steve Johnson

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal

I take the point on board re the half votes but it has worked for me before but I see how it can alter the situation. Sometimes players put in a good game that is close to being worth 1 vote but not quite or they look to be the 3 vote player but not quite etc. so the halves can come in handy.

I was actually at the Haw vs Geel and Haw vs Carl games ( don't follow Haw though ) and I reckon that Mitchell was very good in both but there were stars that also played well.

My roughies right now would be Goodes, Tredrea and Sewell.

Gee a lot of you people seem to have Judd pretty low.

He clearly got 3 on the weekend vs Coll and I also think he played big games vs Haw, Rich ( should get 2-3 ), Bris ( ditto ) and Ess ( should get 3 except for the fact that they lost but 2 for sure ).

The bookies obviously think he's going very well and know that he polls well.

 

[asanque]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Round 1 - Pretty even match - 0-3 (Betts was on fire with 5 goals)
Round 2 - didn't watch this game - lets say 0-3 (Gibbs, Murphy, Bradshaw have good stats)
Round 3 - 1-3 (one of the BOG but in a losing team)
Round 4 - 0
Round 5 - 0
Round 6 - 0-2 (it will be a split between Fevola/Roughhead/Sewell/Judd - forwards were BOG for me - quite difficult goals rather then gimmes)
Round 7 - 0 votes (might scrape a 1)
Round 8 - Judd 3

So lets say - 9 votes based on the half point scale
Probably higher as we know he polls well.

Definitely deserved 2nd favourite and a proven vote getter.

I think there was a thread in the main forum not so long ago on this issue. Most rated Judd relatively lowly in votes at that stage.

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal

I backed both Judd and Ablett pre season so am feeling reasonably comfortable at the moment. I had some spec bets on Black and Sewell early on both at over $100.

I wouldn't mind some $$ on Dal Santo if he was out to greater than $20

 

[Effes]

Re: Brownlow Medal

I think Sewell is a very good bet...has shortened significantly in recent weeks. Has a history of polling well with 15 or so last year.

I don't think BG was the only one to predict Bartel would poll highly again last year...I thought he would get in the 20s. For one reason or another he didn't do that well, finishing on 10 votes.

Simon Black last year was a ripper! Was a certainty to lead at round 11...everyone thought it was no contest with Ablett winning it but unless you do your homework you won't know.

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal

I think that a mate and I are responsible for Sewell shortening as we hit him pretty hard with bookies and the TAB a couple of days before the Ess game ( at $126 and $101 ). He got 16 last year and over performed votes wise vs expectations.
He was poor against Ess but very good last week against Freo. He was also good vs WC and Carl.
You are spot on re Black last year. Those who do their homework reap the rewards.

 

[Juddbemetron]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Round 1 - Pretty even match - 0-3 (Betts was on fire with 5 goals)
Round 2 - didn't watch this game - lets say 0-3 (Gibbs, Murphy, Bradshaw have good stats)
Round 3 - 1-3 (one of the BOG but in a losing team)
Round 4 - 0
Round 5 - 0
Round 6 - 0-2 (it will be a split between Fevola/Roughhead/Sewell/Judd - forwards were BOG for me - quite difficult goals rather then gimmes)
Round 7 - 0 votes (might scrape a 1)
Round 8 - Judd 3

So lets say - 9 votes based on the half point scale
Probably higher as we know he polls well.

Definitely deserved 2nd favourite and a proven vote getter.

I think there was a thread in the main forum not so long ago on this issue. Most rated Judd relatively lowly in votes at that stage.

i would say
round 1- one or two (murphy should get 3)
round 2- one or two (gibbs will get three)
round 3- should get 3 as umps love hi, wont get less than 2
round 4- shouldnt poll but may scrape 1 vote
round 5-definite 0
round 6-between 0 and 2, lets say 1
round 7-1
round 8-definite 3

 

[tarky]

Re: Brownlow Medal

I think that a mate and I are responsible for Sewell shortening as we hit him pretty hard with bookies and the TAB a couple of days before the Ess game ( at $126 and $101 ). He got 16 last year and over performed votes wise vs expectations.
He was poor against Ess but very good last week against Freo. He was also good vs WC and Carl.
You are spot on re Black last year. Those who do their homework reap the rewards.

i noticed he shortened extremely quicly....luckily i got him at 501/1

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Sounds like you are a CARL man and have him around 11 which sounds about right to me

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal

With the amount we had on him he should have been into $26 or so before the Ess game...let's hope he can string a few big one's together

 

[tarky]

Re: Brownlow Medal

With the amount we had on him he should have been into $26 or so before the Ess game...let's hope he can string a few big one's together

hopefully he does ok i thought i was the culprit of his price falling after mentioning the odds on the hawks forum when he was 500/1 on the wednesday before the ess game...within hours he was into 250/1, then 126/1 the next day. By wednesday the next week he was 50/1. crazy

 

[Godzke]

Re: Brownlow Medal

would be cool if big footy had a poll coded into the forums where users can vote 3-2-1s for players in each match and then have a running tally on the side ... which can be hidden in the final 5 rounds to add suspense as to who bigfooty rates as the best.

 

[tarky]

Re: Brownlow Medal

would be cool if big footy had a poll coded into the forums where users can vote 3-2-1s for players in each match and then have a running tally on the side ... which can be hidden in the final 5 rounds to add suspense as to who bigfooty rates as the best.

would be very cool

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal

hopefully he does ok i thought i was the culprit of his price falling after mentioning the odds on the hawks forum when he was 500/1 on the wednesday before the ess game...within hours he was into 250/1, then 126/1 the next day. By wednesday the next week he was 50/1. crazy

Blow it, I was 1 day late from starting our plonk at $501. We brought him in from $126 to $51 but someone must have got on 1 day before us.

 

[Athomas]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Thoughts on Leigh Montagna?

Only polled 9 votes last year, but then again Hayes only polled 14 to lead StKilda. Just worried with Goddard, Dal Santo, Hayes and Riewoldt they will all be taking too many votes off each other.

 

[asanque]

Re: Brownlow Medal

I've always been a big Sewell fan.
Been on him for the last 2 years but unfortunately not this year.

I still feel Ablett bar injury will win quite comfortably.
Been a quiet year for brownlow betting for me.

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Thoughts on Leigh Montagna?

Only polled 9 votes last year, but then again Hayes only polled 14 to lead StKilda. Just worried with Goddard, Dal Santo, Hayes and Riewoldt they will all be taking too many votes off each other.

It almost looks like being a raffle down at St Kilda for the votes at this stage. Dalsanto looks to be leading down there but I agree that there are plenty of guys having good years. I've only got Montagna on 5 at this stage but he is the type of player that attracts the umps as he is a ball carrier and bounces a fair bit.
Riewoldt has certainly been a disappointing poller in recent years. Goddard is the one that has really lifted his performance to greater heights.

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal

I've always been a big Sewell fan.
Been on him for the last 2 years but unfortunately not this year.

I still feel Ablett bar injury will win quite comfortably.
Been a quiet year for brownlow betting for me.

I sure am looking forward to seeing little Gazza back in action on Fri night and agree that if he stays out on the park that he is the one who can blow them away this year.

 

[DG-Man]

Re: Brownlow Medal

I sure am looking forward to seeing little Gazza back in action on Fri night and agree that if he stays out on the park that he is the one who can blow them away this year.

Yes.

Can see Jnr and Judd getting 25 plus votes this year.

 

[GrandBlue]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Jnr shouldn't get votes this round. He tries to dodge a tackle and got caught and got a lot of cheap possessions IMO.

I still think Dal Santo or Davey should snag it.

 

[Effes]

Re: Brownlow Medal

They seem very keen for him to win it so give him the ball even when he's under immense pressure. He gives a handball then gets it back. Averaging 23 handballs a game.

Thought Selwood was more damaging last night.

 

[Athomas]

Re: Brownlow Medal

He might scrape a 1. Aker 3, Selwood 2 imo. The 1 could go to Ablett, Boyd or BJ imo. Too bad BJ didn't kick the goal.

 

[Effes]

Re: Brownlow Medal

SJ was pretty good as well.

 

[lloydy_loinchop]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Leaderboard after R8

Total Player Club
11 G.Ablett Gee
10 N.Dal Santo StK
10 N.Riewoldt StK
9 C.Judd Car
9 L.Gilbee WB
9 W.Tredrea Port
8 S.Johnson Gee

 

[noffle]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Prior to the start of this round I had:
13
Mitchell
Judd
11
Ablett
10
Steve Johnson
Sewell
9
Montagna
8
Hayes
Watson
Chapman
Tredrea
Nick Dal Santo
Goddard